PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

vincent

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
99PLAAFBalloons said:
Most people here are far more knowledgeable than I am on PLA & ROCAF capabilities (just started this military watching hobby recently) but to give my two pennies worth, I think a lesson of the Ukraine conflict is that seemingly easy or not, rushing to get ground troops onto the island immediately upon establishing air superiority is low R/R. Taiwan not having a Poland makes a blockade and campaign of prolonged attrition of materiel highly effective and avoids needlessly wasting PLA lives from unanticipated hiccups (ISR initially missing AShMs and AAMs, loss of high value SOF on SR missions etc.)

I guess the question is what does the PLA gain from rapid ground presence? There's likely to be significant elements of urban warfare and insurgency making an operation inherently protracted. A 'deterrence' angle to make physical support by the US (weapons, the USMC) and Japan moot? Maybe, but if the will for armed confrontation is already there, ground presence doesn't deter anti-blockade engagements via subs, stand-off missiles etc. which are still beneficial from a strategic capability reduction perspective even if they don't inherently benefit the island resistance too much. Reduced proliferation of sea and land mining?

Happy to take feedback on this, figured Cunningham's Law is a good path to quickly finding the gaps in my novice-level thinking :)
Click to expand...
From an esteemed member
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 
B

Brainsuker

Junior Member
Registered Member
The twitter doesn't think amphibious landing is very difficult once air superiority is achieved. Comments?
supercat said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1649995184900558848
Click to expand...
I think the argument that claims that amphibious landing is very difficult come from the invasion of Normandy in World War 2. But at the same time, in a different part of the world in the same war, the isles around Pacific and Asia were easily to be taken by both Japanese and United States.

We should study on how the Japanese were able to take the isles in today Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippine, etc from their colonial governments, easily. At least, not as hard as Normandy. But at the same war, in later time, they were also defeated and easily lose the islands to United States Navy and Marines.

So what is the different between Normandy and the Pacific War? I think the complexity of the beach landing in Normandy was so big, if compared to the Pacific Islands; simply because Normandy had land access with good infrastructure to Berlin. With that connection, German Frontliners got the benefit of reinforcement, resupply, etc from German's central logistic / military command. So when the Allied conducted an amphibious landing, they had to face against the whole power of Germany WW2.

It was different to the small islands in the Pacific and SCS. Because the islands were small, they were separated from Japan mainland. So they required Naval and Air supremacy to connect Japan and the frontliners in the islands. That's why for Japan to guard those island from US Amphibious Landing was more difficult than German against the Allied in Normandy.

So what about Taiwan today?

I think everything depend on the Naval and Air supremacy of both sides. Whoever control the sea and air will rule the battlefield. If Mainland China can cut the logistic to Taiwan, Taiwan will suffer defeat like the Japanese who control the island long time ago; against the United States.

So I think the decided factor would not the beach landing operation ala Normandy, but the most bloody air and sea battle between Mainland China and United States ala Midway and the battle of Philippine sea. Whoever win that battle will win the war.

The problem is, nobody know who will win the war. But everyone know, whoever lose the war, will lose everything in the struggle of world hegemony between United States and China. If United States lose to China in this deciding factor of sea battle around Taiwan, then it is the time when the era of United States is over. They're finished.

That's why the war over Taiwan need the biggest resolve of both Countries. China and United States. As it will become the deciding factor of who will fall and who will raise.
 
Last edited:
B

bebops

Junior Member
Registered Member
Brainsuker said:
The twitter doesn't think amphibious landing is very difficult once air superiority is achieved. Comments?

I think the argument that claims that amphibious landing is very difficult come from the invasion of Normandy in World War 2. But at the same time, in a different part of the world in the same war, the isles around Pacific and Asia were easily to be taken by both Japanese and United States.

We should study on how the Japanese were able to take the isles in today Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, Philippine, etc from their colonial governments, easily. At least, not as hard as Normandy. But at the same war, in later time, they were also defeated and easily lose the islands to United States Navy and Marines.

So what is the different between Normandy and the Pacific War? I think the complexity of the beach landing in Normandy was so big, if compared to the Pacific Islands; simply because Normandy had land access with good infrastructure to Berlin. With that connection, German Frontliners got the benefit of reinforcement, resupply, etc from German's central logistic / military command. So when the Allied conducted an amphibious landing, they had to face against the whole power of Germany WW2.

It was different to the small islands in the Pacific and SCS. Because the islands were small, they were separated from Japan mainland. So they required Naval and Air supremacy to connect Japan and the frontliners in the islands. That's why for Japan to guard those island from US Amphibious Landing was more difficult than German against the Allied in Normandy.

So what about Taiwan today?

I think everything depend on the Naval and Air supremacy of both sides. Whoever control the sea and air will rule the battlefield. If Mainland China can cut the logistic to Taiwan, Taiwan will suffer defeat like the Japanese who control the island long time ago; against the United States.

So I think the decided factor would not the beach landing operation ala Normandy, but the most bloody air and sea battle between Mainland China and United States ala Midway and the battle of Philippine sea. Whoever win that battle will win the war.

The problem is, nobody know who will win the war. But everyone know, whoever lose the war, will lose everything in the struggle of world hegemony between United States and China. If United States lose to China in this deciding factor of sea battle around Taiwan, then it is the time when the era of United States is over. They're finished.

That's why the war over Taiwan need the biggest resolve of both Countries. China and United States. As it will become the deciding factor of who will fall and who will raise.
Click to expand...

imo missiles and satellite can get the job done without landing on taiwan. whatever is discovered by satellites (missiles, jet, tank, ships), it is easy to destroy them by missile. I would destroy everything excluding population center.

the biggest problem is US come to the aid of Taiwan with submarines. This is why you need type 095/096 badly. According to EurAsian Naval Insight, 095 is quieter than Virginia class. It is a game changer. China has a huge labor pool--4-5x larger than U.S. They can hire many 095 submarine builders. Every year they can build 3-4 submarine easily if they want to.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top