Keoni Everington is full of crap, just a Minnie Chan for Taiwan. Posts anything of dubious origin as long as it’s anti China
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
Looks like Yoon is playing his US-designated role dutifully while doing America's bidding to further irritate China.
On the other hand, didn't Moscow just openly warned Seoul that helping to arm Kiev would result in Moscow helping to upgrade Pyongyang's military?
Beijing can play the same game too. You want to cause me more headache by (illegally) arming Taiwan? I can do the same so that you can keep being anxious about North Korea, 24/7.
In fact, with both countries having a formal defense treaty since 1961, China actually has the obligation to aid North Korea, her solid ally - and the only physical barrier between her Dongbei and US military bases on the peninsular - in face of hostile threats and actions from South Korea, Japan and the US in the region.
Furthermore, while Russia is currently bogged down in Ukraine and is still in the process of gearing up their military industrial complex after years of neglect and underinvestment, China's military industrial complex right now is pretty healthy and well-built. If anything, China is actually more capable and ready to upgrade the North Korean military than Russia could for the coming years.
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I think armed reunification is inevitable at this point. China will do it as soon as it prepares the environment. Taiwan is actually recoverable by force now and the matter went beyond economics a few years ago.
birdlikefood made an important observation optimization problem in operations research
China is using formal techniques for analysis including wartime operations. I've cited this article to support my assertion that China's response to the US in any Taiwan-related conflict will occur at the edge of the First Island Chain. You may not agree with the Hughes/Tangredi equations but they provide a formal mechanism for appreciating some aspects of naval warfare. And based on my very incomplete survey of US Naval literature the equations are little used by the USN.
Allow me to share a personal story. Over a decade ago a co-worker and I attended a commanders' conference where one of the presenters described Chinese methods for planning fleet composition and associated operations and maintenance of that fleet. At one point he cited the Analytic Hierarchy Process and paused to look at his audience. My co-worker and I, who occasionally used AHP in our work, did the same. Blank faces all around -- Flags and promotion-path-to-Flags. The presenter hurriedly skipped forward to the next topic.
My even more incomplete survey of Chinese literature found China using formal methods in other disciplines such as economics.
My point is China is using the power of mathematically-based formal methods together with computer techniques as one of the foundations of its amazing leap to world leadership in many aspects including poverty elimination.
And that same power will be (has been) applied to any Taiwan-related conflict. Not only does China have the bigger fleet but it also has the bigger brains. I hope my Navy is smart enough to stay pierside.
China is using formal techniques for analysis including wartime operations. I've cited this article to support my assertion that China's response to the US in any Taiwan-related conflict will occur at the edge of the First Island Chain. You may not agree with the Hughes/Tangredi equations but they provide a formal mechanism for appreciating some aspects of naval warfare. And based on my very incomplete survey of US Naval literature the equations are little used by the USN.
Allow me to share a personal story. Over a decade ago a co-worker and I attended a commanders' conference where one of the presenters described Chinese methods for planning fleet composition and associated operations and maintenance of that fleet. At one point he cited the Analytic Hierarchy Process and paused to look at his audience. My co-worker and I, who occasionally used AHP in our work, did the same. Blank faces all around -- Flags and promotion-path-to-Flags. The presenter hurriedly skipped forward to the next topic.
My even more incomplete survey of Chinese literature found China using formal methods in other disciplines such as economics.
My point is China is using the power of mathematically-based formal methods together with computer techniques as one of the foundations of its amazing leap to world leadership in many aspects including poverty elimination.
And that same power will be (has been) applied to any Taiwan-related conflict. Not only does China have the bigger fleet but it also has the bigger brains. I hope my Navy is smart enough to stay pierside.
Your navy may or may not be smart enough to stay pierside, but they cannot refuse an order from their civilian elected commander-in-chief.
China will need to drain Taiwan economy so the citizens there will have no choice but to accept their fate. Need a puppet government to finalize the deal then all things will be done in no time. Next year is election, if Tsai's party is out then it will be much easier.
supercat
Major
The twitter doesn't think amphibious landing is very difficult once air superiority is achieved. Comments?
I think if you talk about China's defenses in Taiwan, there must be an important distinction between 2 scenarios, the first being PLA countermeasures in the civil war and the second being the strategy vs foreign invasion using Taiwan as a springboard.
In the first case of the civil war going hot for whatever reason, total air superiority is guaranteed and with that, quick landing and the beginning of a ground based anti insurgent campaign.
In the second case, it can be risky to send troops over the straits, as there might be an all out shootout against the invading forces in the near region. Under such conditions, it's not safe to send transports. It would only be an option if China immediately zones out the enemies far from the straits, which is just a possibility but not a certainty.
More likely, China will bait out America's version of the push to Kiev - what China is waiting for is multiple US carrier groups, possibly IJN reinforcements - to enter heavily defended waters near/in the first island chain. These forces would need to come close in order to reinforce the separatists on Taiwan, which will otherwise be starved out. China would need to use this turkey shoot to wreak as much damage on the invader as possible, this would be the main determinant if the US attack gets crushed or if it devolves into what may become a stalemate.
Only after China baited and destroyed the initial attacks would they focus on landing and building forward bases on Taiwan island.
Most people here are far more knowledgeable than I am on PLA & ROCAF capabilities (just started this military watching hobby recently) but to give my two pennies worth, I think a lesson of the Ukraine conflict is that seemingly easy or not, rushing to get ground troops onto the island immediately upon establishing air superiority is low R/R. Taiwan not having a Poland makes a blockade and campaign of prolonged attrition of materiel highly effective and avoids needlessly wasting PLA lives from unanticipated hiccups (ISR initially missing AShMs and AAMs, loss of high value SOF on SR missions etc.)
I guess the question is what does the PLA gain from rapid ground presence? There's likely to be significant elements of urban warfare and insurgency making an operation inherently protracted. A 'deterrence' angle to make physical support by the US (weapons, the USMC) and Japan moot? Maybe, but if the will for armed confrontation is already there, ground presence doesn't deter anti-blockade engagements via subs, stand-off missiles etc. which are still beneficial from a strategic capability reduction perspective even if they don't inherently benefit the island resistance too much. Reduced proliferation of sea and land mining?
Happy to take feedback on this, figured Cunningham's Law is a good path to quickly finding the gaps in my novice-level thinking
