PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

M

Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
RobertC said:
A blockade is an unambiguous act of war. The UNSC would be hard-pressed to rule otherwise.
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No UN membership for Taiwan means it doesn't have the protection of the UN charter like a sovereign nation would have. A Mexican blockade of a gang held area wouldn't be seen as an act of war either

drowingfish said:
no, the bottom line for China should be to initiate conflict on its terms not Taiwan's. if China lets Taiwan declares independence without being fully ready to make its move, then that is a strategic blunder. now if China is ready to move on Taiwan then somehow goads Taiwan into declaring independence, that is a different story.
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It would be nice if China had the initiative, but I'm afraid that Taiwan/America will make the first move. China must be ready for all scenarios. If China is to attack first, then we need to wait another decade or so for the West to decline and alternative markets to grow, otherwise the cost of armed reunification is too high
 
coolgod

coolgod

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Rowdyhorse4 said:
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its no fly zone is because of a falling satellite object, not related to the current drills i think. Also PRC has also informed Japan it seems about it early on, can believe that they also informed SK and Taiwan ahead of time as well if thats the case probably (despite the ongoing drills)
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China doubters (on this forum) should rethink their position, China changed no-fly zone to 6 hrs. Since Taiwan was complicit in propaganda promoting how they changed China's no-fly zone, China will show the world the no-fly zone can be as long as China wants, gotta make China watchers understand the new normal.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

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coolgod said:
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China doubters (on this forum) should rethink their position, China changed no-fly zone to 6 hrs. Since Taiwan was complicit in propaganda promoting how they changed China's no-fly zone, China will show the world the no-fly zone can be as long as China wants, gotta make China watchers understand the new normal.
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Meanwhile...

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The classified documents, allegedly leaked by a US national guardsman in the worst US security breach in a decade, reveal that Taiwan's military leaders doubt their air defenses can "accurately detect missile launches," while only about half of their aircraft are capable of effectively engaging the enemy.
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The intelligence reports said that Taiwan fears it could take up to a week to move its aircraft to shelters, leaving them vulnerable to Chinese missile strikes.

In addition, China's use of civilian shipping, including passenger ferries, for military purposes has hampered the US intelligence community's ability to predict when an invasion might be pending, the Washington Post reported.

The Pentagon criticized Taiwan's missile drills as too highly scripted, which could leave their armed forces and leadership unprepared for a "real-world event," the Post said.
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The analysis that half of the aircraft are capable of effectively engaging the enemy isn't really a dig against aircraft readiness rate but rather aircraft capability. The F-16s, all upgraded to V standard, are no doubt very potent and form half of the ROCAF fleet but the rest consist of F-CK-1, Mirage-2000, and F-5. F-5 are obviously obsolete. Mirage-2000 operated by Taiwan, due to supplier issues with France, has not been modernized properly and has no EW capability to speak of. The AAMs acquired for the Mirages are also past their expiration date and ROCAF pilots try to remedy the situation by carrying a full load whenever they scramble for intercept, their logic being that at least a few of them are still operational. F-CK-1 does have EW capability and can carry domestic weapons, but they are very small and their engines barely produce enough power to keep the avionics operational. A ROCAF pilot commented during a podcast that the EW pods can drain the power very quickly and are not very practical. Even though I enjoy dunking on PLAAF's and PLANAF's legacy flankers, all of them are, in fact, capable of carrying effective EW payloads. The Su-27SK, as a matter of fact, can even the odds against the J-10A and J-11B somewhat by using EW. The R-77/R-73, even though outdated, are still functional missiles. This makes the legacy flankers competitive fighter aircraft against anything that isn't a F-16V in the ROCAF arsenal.
 
C

Chilled_k6

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siegecrossbow said:
Meanwhile...

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The analysis that half of the aircraft are capable of effectively engaging the enemy isn't really a dig against aircraft readiness rate but rather aircraft capability. The F-16s, all upgraded to V standard, are no doubt very potent and form half of the ROCAF fleet but the rest consist of F-CK-1, Mirage-2000, and F-5. F-5 are obviously obsolete. Mirage-2000 operated by Taiwan, due to supplier issues with France, has not been modernized properly and has no EW capability to speak of. The AAMs acquired for the Mirages are also past their expiration date and ROCAF pilots try to remedy the situation by carrying a full load whenever they scramble for intercept, their logic being that at least a few of them are still operational. F-CK-1 does have EW capability and can carry domestic weapons, but they are very small and their engines barely produce enough power to keep the avionics operational. A ROCAF pilot commented during a podcast that the EW pods can drain the power very quickly and are not very practical. Even though I enjoy dunking on PLAAF's and PLANAF's legacy flankers, all of them are, in fact, capable of carrying effective EW payloads. The Su-27SK, as a matter of fact, can even the odds against the J-10A and J-11B somewhat by using EW. The R-77/R-73, even though outdated, are still functional missiles. This makes the legacy flankers competitive fighter aircraft against anything that isn't a F-16V in the ROCAF arsenal.
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I'm wondering what is the technical reason Taiwan can't detect the missile launches? Terrain, lack of range? Their Pave Paws radar is most likely watered down but they should still be able to detect a DongFeng-15's ascent from Jiangxi. Yet during the August exercise last year they said there were 11 missiles impacted, but the Mainland side said it was 16. Psychological warfare, or they really couldn't track? The Patriot radars since they're designed to deal with the terminal phase, probably wouldn't work in that situation since the missiles overflew the island.

As for the F-16V it should be pretty capable, but it seems ROCAF pilots can't even practice with it properly. Since the PLAAF constantly fly aircraft very near the island it'll be easy to pick up the frequency if the F-16Vs turn on the fire control radar, and that's something the ROCAF are determined to avoid.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
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caudaceus said:
Based strategy

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1647223405391872001
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Half of the Legislative Yuan would be dead.


Chilled_k6 said:
I'm wondering what is the technical reason Taiwan can't detect the missile launches? Terrain, lack of range? Their Pave Paws radar is most likely watered down but they should still be able to detect a DongFeng-15's ascent from Jiangxi. Yet during the August exercise last year they said there were 11 missiles impacted, but the Mainland side said it was 16. Psychological warfare, or they really couldn't track? The Patriot radars since they're designed to deal with the terminal phase, probably wouldn't work in that situation since the missiles overflew the island.

As for the F-16V it should be pretty capable, but it seems ROCAF pilots can't even practice with it properly. Since the PLAAF constantly fly aircraft very near the island it'll be easy to pick up the frequency if the F-16Vs turn on the fire control radar, and that's something the ROCAF are determined to avoid.
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A weapon is only as effective as its operator. I think there is an element of truth to the recent leak by a Taiwanese radar operator.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Chilled_k6 said:
I'm wondering what is the technical reason Taiwan can't detect the missile launches? Terrain, lack of range? Their Pave Paws radar is most likely watered down but they should still be able to detect a DongFeng-15's ascent from Jiangxi. Yet during the August exercise last year they said there were 11 missiles impacted, but the Mainland side said it was 16. Psychological warfare, or they really couldn't track? The Patriot radars since they're designed to deal with the terminal phase, probably wouldn't work in that situation since the missiles overflew the island.

As for the F-16V it should be pretty capable, but it seems ROCAF pilots can't even practice with it properly. Since the PLAAF constantly fly aircraft very near the island it'll be easy to pick up the frequency if the F-16Vs turn on the fire control radar, and that's something the ROCAF are determined to avoid.
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PAVE PAWS is being permanently jammed by an AESA right across the strait.

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siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

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siegecrossbow said:
Meanwhile...

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The analysis that half of the aircraft are capable of effectively engaging the enemy isn't really a dig against aircraft readiness rate but rather aircraft capability. The F-16s, all upgraded to V standard, are no doubt very potent and form half of the ROCAF fleet but the rest consist of F-CK-1, Mirage-2000, and F-5. F-5 are obviously obsolete. Mirage-2000 operated by Taiwan, due to supplier issues with France, has not been modernized properly and has no EW capability to speak of. The AAMs acquired for the Mirages are also past their expiration date and ROCAF pilots try to remedy the situation by carrying a full load whenever they scramble for intercept, their logic being that at least a few of them are still operational. F-CK-1 does have EW capability and can carry domestic weapons, but they are very small and their engines barely produce enough power to keep the avionics operational. A ROCAF pilot commented during a podcast that the EW pods can drain the power very quickly and are not very practical. Even though I enjoy dunking on PLAAF's and PLANAF's legacy flankers, all of them are, in fact, capable of carrying effective EW payloads. The Su-27SK, as a matter of fact, can even the odds against the J-10A and J-11B somewhat by using EW. The R-77/R-73, even though outdated, are still functional missiles. This makes the legacy flankers competitive fighter aircraft against anything that isn't a F-16V in the ROCAF arsenal.
Click to expand...

ROCMND states that the Washington Post leak that Taiwan will lose air superiority rapidly is fake news.

1681651948894.png
 
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