PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

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kriss

Junior Member
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According to recently leaked documents it would take a week to relocate majority of their air force into these underground airbase for "capability preservation" which is too late unless they do that before shooting start and say good bye to any practical sortie rate. Even if they successfully concentrate their air fleet into these mountain base they wouldn't be able to support an air force this large effectively from limited infrastructure which are also highly susceptible to PLA firepower.
 
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Stierlitz

Junior Member
Registered Member
PhSt said:
Not sure if its been posted already, but Taiwanese separatist publications are claiming that the US has already deployed around 200 troops in Taiwan as "instructors" to help train Taiwanese separatists.

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If this information is true, then this is a major escalation on part of the US, today US-NATO forces may number only 200 troops, but they could keep increasing this number until they reach a sizeable occupation force in Taiwan.
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I don't see why it wouldn't be true. The increase of U.S. military presence was already announced in late February.

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drowingfish

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kriss said:
According to recently leaked documents it would take a week to relocate majority of their air force into these underground airbase for "capability preservation" which is too late unless they do that before shooting start and say good bye to any practical sortie rate. Even if they successfully concentrate their air fleet into these mountain base they wouldn't be able to support an air force this large effectively from limited infrastructure which are also highly susceptible to PLA firepower.
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i think that plan was based on the assumption that 1. PLA did not have the means to hit the airports behind the mountains, and 2. the ROCAF had a qualitative advantage that would enable it to maintain parity with a numerically superior PLAAF. in the old days these assumptions were valid. the PLAAF's fighters had much smaller combat radius, it had insufficient AWAC capabilities, and no aerial refueling. the PLASA had fewer rockets and insufficient ISR to assess the effects of its strike. the PLAN did not have means to penetrate FIC and take up positions east of Taiwan. all of these assumptions are no longer valid today, so if ROCAF does not change its playbook, then i am afraid that this plan will end up like the dyle plan, and only accelerate its own doom even if it is carried out well.
 
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