PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

supersnoop "In this scenario, are all the MM ships crewed?"

Yes they must be to maintain their civilian status. But they can and will be minimally crewed. And I'm sure most of them will have "safety" places and "safety" gear. My reading of MM crew skills shows at least one crewman will have hospital corpsman training and associated medical equipment and supplies.

Your insight "These ships could also confuse" is exactly correct. Shipboard battlespace management systems have limited manning capacity and limited communications capacity (both line-of-sight including CEC and SATCOM). With the MM ships continuously presenting ship avoidance threat scenarios both the individual ship's tactical commander and the fleet's combat commander's Sense-Control-Engage capacity will be stretched if not overwhelmed.

You don't (and shouldn't) push the aircraft carriers (CVNs, LHAs, etc) out of the arena as they represent national command presence. Rather you push the escorts out, starting with the frigates. Now they're going to circle around and come back into the arena but that isn't important.

What is important (critical) is to force constant maneuvering so US/partner battle formations must be continuously modified in response. Confusion causes fatigue and degrades decision-making. Completely concur with you.

If you don't mind I'd like to discuss the blockade scenario some members have offered.

A blockade is an unambiguous act of war. The UNSC would be hard-pressed to rule otherwise.

And I doubt China intends one except perhaps in the most extreme circumstances.

Instead the CCG will use it's recently granted authority to stop and board (Taiwanese) ships for law enforcement reasons.

In a month or two from now when everyone (except the Taiwanese CG) has forgotten there may be the following scenario involving three ships: civilian ship closest to mainland then CCG ship then Taiwan CG ship). A Chinese fixed wing environmental monitoring aircraft reports over public maritime radio channels what appears to be an oil slick coming from the civilian ship. The CCG reports over the same channels it is maneuvering for boarding and leakage inspection. The Taiwan CG ship says over those same channels that's our ship and we will do the boarding and inspection. But by the time it arrives the CCG boarding crew is already onboard the civilian ship and the CCG ship just happens to be maneuvering to keep the Taiwan CG ship from boarding. The CCG boarding crew finds some safety, licensing, etc (maybe even a leak!), writes an infraction for the civilian ship and then leaves having established a precedent for this law enforcement action.

The US and partners have no mechanism for constraining this action even though they will complain loudly,

And a month or so later the CCG will repeat the action, except this time for a container ship headed to Taiwan. And each salami-slice increases the scope of its legitimate authority...without anyone's military firing a shot.

RobertC said:

tankphobia: I share your concern "that seems like a waste of Chinese lives." And I'm sure you share my concern: "that seems like a waste of USA JPN AUS etc lives."

Before weapons are fired there will be positioning and maneuvering. With 100s of civilian MM ships flooding the arena populated by 55 (latest estimate I've seen) US ships and maybe 30 partner ships the US and its partners will be constantly forced to re-position its forces. Is the US going to be the first to fire a weapon on a Chinese civilian ship that maneuvered too close? Is there another would-be Capt Rogers on a CG? The "rules-based order" US wants China to fire the first shot and China won't allow that. Instead the US and partner ships will be gently (and forcefully if needed) pushed out of formation by MM ships and out of the arena.

I don't know what will happen after the first shot is fired but I do know the US won't have a 7th Fleet for at least a decade.

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In such scenario, there will be a simple exclusion zone set and any shop that do not get out of dodge will be sunk, i don't think there is any room for interpretation and rule lawyering when it's basically WW3.

tankphobia -- I understand what you're saying about an exclusion zone.

But where is that zone?

On the outer edge of the First Island Chain? China will just wait at the zone boundary. And the world will wonder why the US and partners are taking such an action. As China asks for a vote by the UNSC.

In the ECS? Quite a bit of commercial traffic there to filter the good guys shipping and fishing from the bad guys who are also shipping and fishing.

In the SCS? Even more commercial traffic.

In the Taiwan Strait? China won't allow the US and partner ships getting near.

Temstar said:

View attachment 110878
Welcome to the new normal

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That can't be true is it?

RobertC said:

If you don't mind I'd like to discuss the blockade scenario some members have offered.

A blockade is an unambiguous act of war. The UNSC would be hard-pressed to rule otherwise.

And I doubt China intends one except perhaps in the most extreme circumstances.

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PRC and ROC are still in a state of war, there isn't even a ceasefire between the two sides, not sure what you are trying to say.

RobertC said:

In a month or two from now when everyone (except the Taiwanese CG) has forgotten there may be the following scenario involving three ships: civilian ship closest to mainland then CCG ship then Taiwan CG ship). A Chinese fixed wing environmental monitoring aircraft reports over public maritime radio channels what appears to be an oil slick coming from the civilian ship. The CCG reports over the same channels it is maneuvering for boarding and leakage inspection. The Taiwan CG ship says over those same channels that's our ship and we will do the boarding and inspection. But by the time it arrives the CCG boarding crew is already onboard the civilian ship and the CCG ship just happens to be maneuvering to keep the Taiwan CG ship from boarding. The CCG boarding crew finds some safety, licensing, etc (maybe even a leak!), writes an infraction for the civilian ship and then leaves having established a precedent for this law enforcement action.

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本次专项行动为期3天，福建海事局出动“海巡06”轮编队和海事执法人员，会同东海救助局、东海航海保障中心等相关力量，将对平潭对台直航集装箱航线、“小三通”客运航线、台湾海峡船舶习惯航路、商渔船通航密集区以及非法采砂活动多发区等水域开展巡航巡查。 行动期间，海事执法人员对两岸直航货船、施工作业船实施现场检查，确保船舶航行安全,保障水上重点工程作业安全有序。 未来两天，“海巡06”轮编队将持续在台湾海峡中北部开展巡航巡查行动。

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China's coast guard has or will board (Taiwanese) ships and any excuse will do.

siegecrossbow said:

It is not up to the Taiwanese leaders whether obvious red lines are crossed. If China is hellbent on initiating conflict, anything can be a solid red line. If the U.S. is hellbent on initiating conflict, they’ll cross the obvious red lines for them.

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yes thank you for paraphrasing me. and yes the US certainly has the option of just declare that they will recognize Taiwan as an independent country. it used to be inconceivable but not anymore.

Minm said:

Yes, hostilities must start the moment there's a declaration of independence. This is for political reasons, the link between war and actions from the Taiwanese side must be obvious. Chinese law also obliges the state to wage war in case of an attempted secession. The only alternative is a WW1 style ultimatum. Start full mobilisation and give Taiwan one week to renounce any declaration of independence.

Of course that doesn't mean total war immediately. It could just be empty shells hitting an ROC held island and Chinese ships and aircraft asserting China's sovereignty in the sea and airspace around Taiwan. But China can't do nothing and prepare silently while countries like Lithuania race to be the first to recognise the newly declared state and establish diplomatic relations

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no, the bottom line for China should be to initiate conflict on its terms not Taiwan's. if China lets Taiwan declares independence without being fully ready to make its move, then that is a strategic blunder. now if China is ready to move on Taiwan then somehow goads Taiwan into declaring independence, that is a different story.

tankphobia said:

In such scenario, there will be a simple exclusion zone set and any shop that do not get out of dodge will be sunk, i don't think there is any room for interpretation and rule lawyering when it's basically WW3.

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It's an elaborate way to pin the blame on the real aggressors and establish casus belli. Tbh I don't think it will work because there's also several risks:

1. They can just go full mask off Nazi might is right. Then all the labor hours that went into planning the casus belli and not into actually winning the war are wasted.

2. There's already casus belli. There's been casus belli. You only need 1 casus belli.

3. Unmanned ships are just as civilian if they're unarmed. Why even have them belong to maritime militia which could be argued to be military? A single crewman that doesn't want to die for PR and defects or deserts would utterly destroy Chinese credibility permanently. How's that for ruining all future casus belli? You want to pin the entire future of Chinese diplomacy on the question of whether a single individual with the means and motive to defect, will not defect?

Instead give unmanned ships to the China State Oceanographic Administration as unmanned drones, deploy them from a CSOA research ship (but datalinked to the navy) and equip each with a remote towed sonar. 100x more effective than arming them with ATGMs, and these are 100% civilian research tools. Shoot one? Nobody dies but it's still casus belli for shooting a research vessel.

RobertC said:

tankphobia -- I understand what you're saying about an exclusion zone.

But where is that zone?

On the outer edge of the First Island Chain? China will just wait at the zone boundary. And the world will wonder why the US and partners are taking such an action. As China asks for a vote by the UNSC.

In the ECS? Quite a bit of commercial traffic there to filter the good guys shipping and fishing from the bad guys who are also shipping and fishing.

In the SCS? Even more commercial traffic.

In the Taiwan Strait? China won't allow the US and partner ships getting near.

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I have a feeling it will be an exclusion zone set up by both sides as a free fire zone that might as well cover all coastal waters surrounding China and Taiwan. This would not be a thing until the beginning of hostility of course, but when the bullets are firing there is no incentive for either side to allow ANY non-allied shipping to move within the AO.

As such a lightly armed militia fleet will be nothing but disposable targets for US forces, with the possibility that the US will employ not even cruise missiles, but suicide UAVs against them making the role as screening/cluttering much less of a concern unless the Chinese side also employ a disporportionate amount of AA defense for what ultimately is chaff, defeating the point of using them as a cheap screening force.

The maritime militia/fisherman are useful for boundary pushing against SEA, but using them as Jihadi forces against a well armed enemy is not only immoral, but also of questionable effectiveness.