seems like Reuters updated the article now saying that taiwan is claiming that they're the ones who "convinced" the PRC to curb its NFZ. (updated to include what taiwan claims)
Last edited:
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
seems like Reuters updated the article now saying that taiwan is claiming that they're the ones who "convinced" the PRC to curb its NFZ. (updated to include what taiwan claims)
plawolf
Lieutenant General
You make it sound like the 022 has a VLS when in reality it just has standard slant launchers (beefed up metal frame) enclosed in a stealth housing.
Unless you are trying to integrate something grossly too large (and there are plenty of off the shelf options that can easily fit within the existing housing footprint to require zero structural changes), integration is so easy it’s something that can be done by a few qualified welders in the field. The only expense worth mentioning is a few test firings and maybe some electronics upgrades. Maybe expensive for you or me, but peanuts for military budgets.
As for the utility of 022 launches LACMs, well sure, the PLA has options aplenty on the west coast of Taiwan, but having 022s pop off LACMs on the east side of Taiwan options up all sorts of options you cannot really easily hit with mainland based fighters or land based launchers. Not without a significant detour that presents significant costs in terms of fuel, security and risks.
Once PLAN carriers and other principle surface combatants have secured sea and air control around Taiwan, the only serious risks are USN carriers and subs. USN Carries would be a top priority for the PLAN’s own carriers, and would be at significant jeopardy itself to get within fighter range of Taiwan. Even if that was achieved, do you think USN F35 pilots will want to take pot shots at 022s? Same deal with subs. You think any USN SSNs that do manage to get within weapons range would waste their shot on 022s?
That is the strength and beauty of using 022s for large munitions expenditure strike missions. They can move without close escorts to and from launch positions and face almost no threat because anything that can get close enough to threaten them will not want to waste the opportunity on something so puny.
Sure you can use 052C/Ds for strike missions, but every VLS you use for LACMs on 052C/Ds is one less for SAMs and AShBMs. And what happens after your CSG escorts have run out of LACMs? Send a replacement escort fleet to tag them out so they can return to port to restock missiles? At what point do you do the swap? Where would your returning ships need to go to safely rearm?
Why create those difficult choices and added complexity when you can just keep your 052C/Ds and 055s on station with full missile loads while 022s can zoom back and forth to do the missile spamming instead?
That’s actually adding significant value to the mission instead of just sending them out with load outs that are almost certainly not going to be needed or used, which is basically just sending them out for the sake of sending them out since you have them.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
My best guess is that the PRC said that it needed to declare a no fly zone for a period of time between the 16th and 18th, like someone saying they will have a party between the 16th and 18th, exact time uncertain as of yet. The ROC, among others, asked to clarify what time, and when the launch administrators confirmed the launch time, the official statement was given on when the 27 minute window would begin and end. There is no way they wanted to shut down the airways for 3 days over a launch that lasts less than half an hour.
The CIA puppet bots are spinning it as China being forced to back down. Purely as a matter of communications practice, they should've waited and announced the actual launch window without pre-announcing the broader window.
I don't think so. Ultimately its just different political theater, and China is skilled at playing these lines.
The launch is it's own thing that seems unrelated to Chinese security, but now China could use the CIA bot claim that they're being forced to back down to do other stuff that IS related to national defense.
It's a give and take scenario and several times now China relied on giving useless or temporary "concessions" to improve the situation on the ground. It's almost a predictable modus at this point.
Continuing the Type 022 discussion, I agree they are best used with their current missile loadout. And that they will distract the USN/USAF in eliminating them. But small craft have low survival rate in military-on-military scenarios.
I don't think the PLAN will use them in that manner.
Rather the PLAN will flood the zone with its 100s of Maritime Militia ships and the Type 022s will play hide-and-seek within their shadows. And just like the Israelis, at the proper time they will pop out of the shadows, launch their missiles and scoot away to fight another day.
The USMC have already considered this scenario with Cobras and Harpoons, attacking both the MMs and Type 022s.
Except the MMs might (likely will) be armed. The ongoing pirate attack in the Gulf of Guinea sets precedence for self-defense in the absence of naval defense (the Danish frigate left the region because Ukraine). Javelins and their equivalents have proven effective for this purpose. Those Cobras might want to stay on the deck.
I really doubt the PLAN intends a military-on-military conflict, especially near Taiwan or the mainland. I believe if active weapon fires conflict does occur, it will be on the edge of the First Island Chain and will involve coordinated PLAN-CCG-MM forces.
You don't fight the war your enemy has prepared for.
You fight the war your enemy hasn't prepared for.
I don't think the PLAN will use them in that manner.
Rather the PLAN will flood the zone with its 100s of Maritime Militia ships and the Type 022s will play hide-and-seek within their shadows. And just like the Israelis, at the proper time they will pop out of the shadows, launch their missiles and scoot away to fight another day.
The USMC have already considered this scenario with Cobras and Harpoons, attacking both the MMs and Type 022s.
Except the MMs might (likely will) be armed. The ongoing pirate attack in the Gulf of Guinea sets precedence for self-defense in the absence of naval defense (the Danish frigate left the region because Ukraine). Javelins and their equivalents have proven effective for this purpose. Those Cobras might want to stay on the deck.
I really doubt the PLAN intends a military-on-military conflict, especially near Taiwan or the mainland. I believe if active weapon fires conflict does occur, it will be on the edge of the First Island Chain and will involve coordinated PLAN-CCG-MM forces.
You don't fight the war your enemy has prepared for.
You fight the war your enemy hasn't prepared for.
I'll err on the side of involving maritime militia in such a scenario, since for the US there's a bazillion ways they can take out such ships. As they do not carry missiles using them as sacrificial lambs for more important PLA ships will be the only way they are useful, that seems like a waste of Chinese lives.
tankphobia: I share your concern "that seems like a waste of Chinese lives." And I'm sure you share my concern: "that seems like a waste of USA JPN AUS etc lives."
Before weapons are fired there will be positioning and maneuvering. With 100s of civilian MM ships flooding the arena populated by 55 (latest estimate I've seen) US ships and maybe 30 partner ships the US and its partners will be constantly forced to re-position its forces. Is the US going to be the first to fire a weapon on a Chinese civilian ship that maneuvered too close? Is there another would-be Capt Rogers on a CG? The "rules-based order" US wants China to fire the first shot and China won't allow that. Instead the US and partner ships will be gently (and forcefully if needed) pushed out of formation by MM ships and out of the arena.
I don't know what will happen after the first shot is fired but I do know the US won't have a 7th Fleet for at least a decade.
Before weapons are fired there will be positioning and maneuvering. With 100s of civilian MM ships flooding the arena populated by 55 (latest estimate I've seen) US ships and maybe 30 partner ships the US and its partners will be constantly forced to re-position its forces. Is the US going to be the first to fire a weapon on a Chinese civilian ship that maneuvered too close? Is there another would-be Capt Rogers on a CG? The "rules-based order" US wants China to fire the first shot and China won't allow that. Instead the US and partner ships will be gently (and forcefully if needed) pushed out of formation by MM ships and out of the arena.
I don't know what will happen after the first shot is fired but I do know the US won't have a 7th Fleet for at least a decade.
In this scenario, are all the MM ships crewed?
I always imagined a similar scenario with unmanned ships to create clutter and provide cover for landing ships.
A variety of weapons could be used to arm the MM ships such as MANPADs or 57mm cannons and remotely controlled
USMC shouldn't be a factor because they honestly should not be close enough
ROCA Cobras and Apaches could be a factor though
These ships could also confuse Harpoons or HF-2 IIR guidance with limited communication with on shore guidance due to EW (or simply destroyed)
So, to clarify, your envisioned use case for the Type 22s is to replace their AShMs with a LACM that can be fit in the same dimensions and weight footprint as YJ-83s, and use them as LACM platforms to sail to the east of Taiwan specifically to attack the east side of the island?
But there are multiple questions that emerge immediately:
1) which LACM can they even install on the 22s? The Type 22 are small ships and their topside structures are designed to accommodate the Yj-83 family weapon in terms of length especially as a major limiting factor but also in terms of topside weight. Do you suggest they adopt an existing LACM or develop a whole new one that fits the YJ-83 footprint?
2) your CONOPs requires the Type 22s to sail to the east of Taiwan -- sending a FAC into open waters all in a ship with poor sea keeping.
3) if the goal is to strike targets on the east coast of Taiwan, why does the PLA even need naval platforms as launch platforms to physically go to the east of Taiwan in the first place? SRBMs will be able to strike those targets, and they have plentiful fighter and bomber aircraft with ALCMs and SOMs where waypoints in a flight mission are very old technology. To strike the east of Taiwan they don't actually need any air or naval platforms to be easy of Taiwan to employ their weapons -- they can simply remain in Chinese airspace
All of which is to say -- the Type 22s are a bit of a unique novelty weapon for a single purpose with limited physical space for growth or modification.
If they have to be used in a conflict like a Taiwan contingency, they are not able to contribute much which other platforms cannot do much better, and any role they should take on should suffer from as little effort, time and money as possible to make happen.
The best role for Type 22s is just give them modern YJ-83 variants with dual mode guidance which does not require them to spend any time, effort or additional money to modify the ship or ensure ship stability. They can contribute to anti ship fires during the early phase of the conflict as glorified/more mobile AShM TELs operating in China's littorals, and in the later phase of the conflict if they have to be used, they can fire dual mode YJ-83s against land targets if needed in the same manner.
Alternatively, they can just be stripped of their AShMs and operate as simple high speed patrol craft in Chinese waters.
These are not platforms worth using any effort to give them a mission outside of their immediate scope for.
Frankly, if the Type 22s had VLS that would be simpler because at least that way there might be other VLS launched missiles they could employ.
Bur given it has slant launchers on such a small ship, if they want to replace that with another slant launch missile that doesn't have the same dimensions and weight distribution, then you are in for a whole lot of effort to make it work.