PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

plawolf said:

Except that’s not the only thing the 022 can bring to the table is it? They can load up with LACMs as easy as they can with AShMs. Such capabilities are potentially even ready off the shelf.

There has been much talk about PLAN SSGNs and arsenal ships in recent years, but just a modest number of 022s can offer the firepower of such assets, while being essentially cost free to implement since it’s using existing platforms and munitions that are increasingly unnecessary in their original intended role and functions.

Why send the 022s in for no clear reason or purpose other than because they exist and that’s the role they were originally designed to do, when you can very easily, quickly reconfigured them for a critical mission at minimal to no cost?

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Well, I suppose they could carry newer YJ-83 variants that have ImIR seeker that could be used in the land attack role.

But reconfiguring Type 22s for actually carrying LACMs is not as easy as you make it out to be -- the canisters themselves have a given dimension and the ship is designed to carry the YJ-83 canister in the size and arrangement or is in.
Adapting a new LACM (of whatever kind) would either require it to have to adapt to the YJ-83 canister dimensions, or you'd have to integrate and test a new LACM canister to the Type 22, both options of which aren't exactly cheap or easy. The Type 22 is a small ship where those kind of topside structural modifications can't be done as easily as on a frigate or larger.

Additionally, the PLA also has a fairly large amount of Taiwan relevant land attack fires from long range MLRS, SRBMs, bomber launched ALCMs and fighter launched SOMs, so to me giving Type 22s the land attack role with that much extra effort to integrate a LACM seems a waste of time.


Really, if one wants to make the most efficient use of Type 22s you're better off loading them with their regular modern YJ-83s, and then use that to free up a few JH-7As for other missions (like stand off land attack SOMs) which otherwise may have been tasked for the anti ship role.

Temstar said:

View attachment 110878
Welcome to the new normal

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its no fly zone is because of a falling satellite object, not related to the current drills i think. Also PRC has also informed Japan it seems about it early on, can believe that they also informed SK and Taiwan ahead of time as well if thats the case probably (despite the ongoing drills)

Rowdyhorse4 said:

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its no fly zone is because of a falling satellite object, not related to the current drills i think. Also PRC has also informed Japan it seems about it early on, can believe that they also informed SK and Taiwan ahead of time as well if thats the case probably (despite the ongoing drills)

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that makes much more sense.

though from the article, PRC wanted to initially make it a 2-3 day no fly zone. Then reduced it to 27 minutes only after protest from japan. Why make it so long in a very busy airway i wonder.

i believe PRC Space tracking is already advanced enough to pinpoint accurately track falling objects that are already close to re-entry and predict time of impact?

unless its just political posturing as well. give it big, see if they are willing to accept it kind of shtick. (as part of the current geopolitics)

Rowdyhorse4 said:

though from the article, PRC wanted to initially make it a 2-3 day no fly zone. Then reduced it to 27 minutes only after protest from japan. Why make it so long in a very busy airway i wonder.

i believe PRC Space tracking is already advanced enough to pinpoint accurately track falling objects that are already close to re-entry and predict time of impact?

unless its just political posturing as well. give it big, see if they are willing to accept it kind of shtick. (as part of the current geopolitics)

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We are all getting third hand indistinct information.

I suspect it's possible that they initially said they would plan for a NFZ to last anytime between those three days, and then as things firmed up for their launch times they were able to also give a more specific time.

drowingfish said:

I am betting that China wont wait for an obvious red line to be crossed. it would give away the initiative. Taiwan's leaders arent stupid, if they are going to really do something that drastic, they would be prepared along with the Americans. It would benefit China to just make a move when it feels ready. make up whatever reason, "sorry Ms Tsai you farted and it smells", boom starts firing on all cylinders, would cost a lot less lives than if Taiwan was expecting an attack.

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It is not up to the Taiwanese leaders whether obvious red lines are crossed. If China is hellbent on initiating conflict, anything can be a solid red line. If the U.S. is hellbent on initiating conflict, they’ll cross the obvious red lines for them.

Overbom said:

Say that Taiwan declares independence today, does that mean China has to go AR the next day? No. It can easily wait for a week or a month until it has fully prepared its military.

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Yes, hostilities must start the moment there's a declaration of independence. This is for political reasons, the link between war and actions from the Taiwanese side must be obvious. Chinese law also obliges the state to wage war in case of an attempted secession. The only alternative is a WW1 style ultimatum. Start full mobilisation and give Taiwan one week to renounce any declaration of independence.

Of course that doesn't mean total war immediately. It could just be empty shells hitting an ROC held island and Chinese ships and aircraft asserting China's sovereignty in the sea and airspace around Taiwan. But China can't do nothing and prepare silently while countries like Lithuania race to be the first to recognise the newly declared state and establish diplomatic relations

Minm said:

Yes, hostilities must start the moment there's a declaration of independence. This is for political reasons, the link between war and actions from the Taiwanese side must be obvious. Chinese law also obliges the state to wage war in case of an attempted secession. The only alternative is a WW1 style ultimatum. Start full mobilisation and give Taiwan one week to renounce any declaration of independence.

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From the changes in the situation in recent years, it can be seen that the DPP will not publicly declare independence. But their other approach is more dangerous - by inciting short-sighted Western politicians to visit taiwan and undermining the "One China" principle in diplomacy.

With the assistance of the United States, this method has been very successful. One possibility of future war is that the United States incites its "allies" - such as Lithuania and the Czech - to recognize Taiwan's international status in diplomacy, thus undermining decades of diplomatic efforts on the Chinese Mainland.

In this way, even if Taiwan's leaders do not issue any "declaration of independence" (for them, it is already a state of "one country on one side", which is not necessary), they can still obtain what they want.

So in this way, military action will be inevitable and proactive. You need to understand that there is not only one prerequisite for launching the Anti Secession Law.

There is no doubt that the Czech's behavior in those years had a very bad impact, and they triggered a new wave of provocations from the West against China.

Add: This is the news I saw on another topic

In parallel with the defense industry efforts, the Biden administration is urging some European countries to help arm Taiwan.

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Obviously, Americans want Europeans to ignite the fuse in Taiwan.

Taiwanese goverment will never openly declare independence, they are not that stupid. That gives Beijing 100% right for AR in the international community and in home Taiwan's citizens' perception.

Instead its future president can simply meet with US future president or vice president both in Taiwan or in the DC.

That's my theory what will happen as soon as they both finish their elections in 2024.

And then the US can escalate. It will be: That supposed meeting happening, PLA strongest response ever, and then the US will fully escalate into a war with China. Maybe they will do that on the first, but maybe after a few tries, i don't know.

Both Taiwan and US want to "defeat" China and destroy its image now, instead of waiting for the 2050 when China is fully developed and has 100% assurance to take the island back effortlessly.

If they defeat it soon, they irrationally think that the China's rise as a superpower would be stopped, that there would be internal turmoil happening inside the China, maybe even a full collapse. And that's not a conspiracy theory, that's what the US officially thought regarding Russia just recently. In 2050, Taiwan and US have no chance, but now they have at least some. Therefore, they are gambling all in.

Serb said:

Taiwanese goverment will never openly declare independence, they are not that stupid. That gives Beijing 100% right for AR in the international community and in home Taiwan's citizens' perception.

Instead its future president can simply meet with US future president or vice president both in Taiwan or in the DC.

That's my theory what will happen as soon as they both finish their elections in 2024.

And then the US can escalate. It will be: That supposed meeting happening, PLA strongest response ever, and then the US will fully escalate into a war with China. Maybe they will do that on the first, but maybe after a few tries, i don't know.

Both Taiwan and US want to "defeat" China and destroy its image now, instead of waiting for the 2050 when China is fully developed and has 100% assurance to take the island back effortlessly.

If they defeat it soon, they irrationally think that the China's rise as a superpower would be stopped, that there would be internal turmoil happening inside the China, maybe even a full collapse. And that's not a conspiracy theory, that's what the US officially thought regarding Russia just recently. In 2050, Taiwan and US have no chance, but now they have at least some. Therefore, they are gambling all in.

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the proper response is to destroy Taiwan's economy and inflict as many casualties on them as possible without regard for amphibious landing except to take outlying strongholds and later accept their surrender. More forces are reserved for the Westpac battle.

We see that may already be the plan since the amount of amphibious assets isn't going up nearly as quickly as the number of blue water assets unnecessary for Taiwan alone.

Once separatist naval, air and recon forces are neutralized, and their economic lifeline of energy, components and logistics are destroyed, they can be safely ignored while presenting a dilemma for foreign intervention: ignore their humanitarian plight and scare their allies with inaction? or risk assets for them?