PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Michaelsinodef said:

I generally agree with you, and also agree that we shouldn't believe that the CCG has boarded a ship and the ROC military then choose to ignore/not report about it.

But at the same time, when @Temstar posts something like this:

I don't fully believe it yet, but I would not be surprised if the above were true.

Since we do seem to have quite the number of reports and the likes in regards to various corruptions in the ROC military, not to mention the ROC military has a longer 'record'/history of corruption that dates quite a while back.

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I agree, that it is possible it is true and I wouldn't be surprised if there were elements of incompetence in the ROC military.

But I also think such claims need to be properly vetted and treated with caution. Speaking of them as if they are true or widespread in absence of consistent evidence, is suboptimal.

It is especially for things like this that seem emotionally satisfying to some people here, that it is important to not allow wishful thinking to overrule being even handed.

coolgod said:

Those ROCMND people aren't stupid, showing real maps would scare the frogs, doesn't help them at all. Likewise there are some on this forum who doubt China's Coast Guard boarded ships during the recent exercises since nothing was reported. If China's Coast Guard actually boarded Taiwanese ships, would Taiwan have the guts to report it?

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I am 99.9% certain that no boarding took place. If it had happened the US media would be screaming bloody murder for one week straight.

Don't forget that its in the US national interest to hype up the "China threat" narrative

One thing I found particularly interesting with these exercises is the use of 022 FACs.

Given the frankly excessive amount of ship killing firepower the PLA would have in and around the Taiwan strait, their inclusion in the exercise does stand out as very unnecessary, if their role was anti-shipping.

One obvious alternative explanation is that the 022s were not their for anti-shipping missions. It would be extremely easy for the PLAN to swap out the AShMs on the 022s for LACS. Especially since the C803 has land attack variants available off the shelf.

Having 022s undertake the land attack part of the mission would free up the PLAN’s principle surface combatants to fill their entire VLS complement with SAMs and AShM/AShBMs, or allow them to reserve their own cruise missile stocks for the highest value time sensitive targets. This would drastically increase PLAN surface fleets combat persistence on the east side of Taiwan if the principle surface combatants are saving their own missile stocks and just focusing on staying safe on station, while packs of 022s zoom back and forth between optimal launch zones east of Taiwan island and home ports to rearm, refuel, re-crew and head back for another salvo.

There may be a new normal after this round of exercise. ETC says multiple ships will remain around Taiwan and carry out normalized patrol. ROC president is complaining about it.

siegecrossbow said:

No live firing this year, so the reaction is a lot more muted. But if you dig deeper this year’s exercise is actually a lot more dangerous.

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Yes, the three consecutive days of military exercises showcased three different stages of combat. By contrast, the exercise in August last year was more like a political act to save face.

The eastern part of Taiwan Island has been perfectly sealed off, and a clearer signal has been expressed politically: there is no safe rear on the island for them to transfer their troops.

Nope, this too was predominantly a political pissing contest with no value.

Overbom "I am 99.9% certain that no [CCG] boarding took place."

I too would be surprised if any boarding took place. Historically China's salami-slicing technique is to announce a new authority; wait for the excitement and memories fade away; and then when the circumstances are appropriate exercise that authority.

plawolf "packs of 022s zoom back and forth"

The "waiting" time-on-station in open seas will be much longer than "firing" time so rather than zooming how about a swarm of Maritime Militia "fishing boats" that provide wind, etc protection as well as "accidentally" dropping overboard fuel bladders with food supplies. Exchanging crews at sea would penetrate the "PLAN-MM" military-civilian wall plus I doubt underway reloading is possible so some back and forth would still be needed. And the zooming would be greatly reduced.

Examining China's maritime policies and practices from a military-only, law enforcement-only and civilian militia is inadequate to inform our understanding. They must be examined in their PLAN-CCG-MM combination.

022s can't be discounted in a actual conflict since if they are clued in by friendly fire control they are just as threatening as any missile launch capable ship.

With their small size they will be hard to distinguish from civilian boats while also as other posters have stated, free up missile slots to allow for a deeper magazine depth for AA loadout in the destroyers.

HighGround said:

You can't. "Stopping China" is largely bi-partisan consensus. The debate isn't about whether we should step on the brakes, the debate is about how hard we should slam the gas pedal.

I don't think we're going to see a world war, but I see a military confrontation as almost guaranteed. IMO, we are going to lose, and I am far more fearful of American public's reaction to a defeat, than I am of military escalation. I don't think the public and the political establishment is psychologically prepared for a defeat. It's going to be far worse than the public's reaction to Vietnam.

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I totally agree. Current administration is unlikely to escalate into nuclear battle over Taiwan. The problem is what is next. The defeat will utterly shatter American psych risking them going full fascist. Once they are in charge things will turn ugly for all.

I rather US decline more gracefully.

022 as land missile truck is possible, but there's a good chance they'll be used for normal anti ship duties too.

China's military is betting on networked capabilities to counter enemy numerical superiority, the 022 is an example of a vessel that is unassuming by itself but becomes a stealthy anti ship vector that can send attack from unpredictable locations once it shares data with larger PLAN ships.

I think a big part of Chinese confidence comes from being able to utilize small vessels, unlike the US which almost only has large ships. Generally, 022s, 056s and so on are not counted among the Chinese defenders because they're dismissed as small boats, but if they are clued into the right situation, they can be as lethal as a normal surface combatant.