PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

siegecrossbow said:

That’s as far as you can push a ski jump type aircraft carrier.

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Not just a STOBAR thing.

CV-17 went to sea with a partial airwing (I estimate 60%ish load).
Given that, and given that they probably aren't doing intensive flight cycles (why would they -- that sort of thing is better practiced closer to home where there is plentiful easy land divert bases if needed), then 80 fixed wing sorties over three days is about reasonable.

I.e. what we are seeing almost certainly isn't their peak actual sortie generation capacity.

Also keep in mind J-15 is a pretty big aircraft. If J-XY/35 is compatible with STOBAR carriers, then I imagine CV-16/17 will see a slight boost to their sortie generation rate given their smaller footprint.

supersnoop -- here's some of what passes for US responses:

So readiness is competing (and vice versa) if we do it right.

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must be able to harbor no doubt about our capability and our resolve to use it under conditions we say we will.

In the end, I am reserving judgment about the Joint Concept. We simply don’t know enough to reach a firm verdict on it. I suspect this umbrella document will be followed up by a series of directives tailored to various theaters and competitors, providing the concreteness the concept needs to be actionable. For instance, one would imagine the sea services, including the U.S. Coast Guard, would take the lead in the South China Sea, backed up by ground-based implements of sea power. That division of labor might be quite different from elsewhere on the map. Once we have such a family of documents, we may be on to something.

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For many reasons the US does not have any achievable responses to China's plans for the ECS and SCS.

If you haven't read it already, may I commend this document to your attention: specifically Figure 3.1.

You cited the 1996 incident. I believe but would like to know for sure the Type 22 missile boat was China's rapid response. And I think the boat is important for many reasons including training crews in preparation for larger craft and in integrated operations. While small craft have reduced survivability in an air-sea military environment I believe they will be effective (and will be used) in a PLAN-MM combination using Israel's shadowing techniques. A recent interview of a USMC Colonel in The Drive magazine describes how Cobras could respond to this scenario.

The US comfort zone is mil-on-mil. China will not allow this comfort.

Blitzo said:

? I don't think we have any evidence that all 120 sorties entered the ROC ADIZ. If anything, it would make sense that most of the parties were for CAP for the carrier group itself.

Also, of the 120 sorties, it is 80 that were fixed wing J-15s.


You seem to be wanting to imply that the CV-17 had flown more J-15s into ROC ADIZ than what the were able to report/detect, and while it is a possibility that we cannot rule out, the logic being applied is not reasonable.

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Do you believe the ROC ADIZ is set at the maximum range that it's radars can detect?

FairAndUnbiased said:

Do you believe the ROC ADIZ is set at the maximum range that it's radars can detect?

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No.

But I do believe that their ADIZ reports only consist of:
1. Aircraft they can detect, AND
2. Aircraft that venture into their ADIZ (with the western part being delineated by the so called midline in the strait)

It goes without saying that they have the ability to detect aircraft outside of those distances, but they are not reported as they are not relevant for the purposes of the ADIZ report.

The ADIZ report is not a reflection of their actual regional detection and tracking capabilities.

On the other hand, it is also likely that they are not able to detect all aircraft that fly in or around the ADIZ.


What this means for CV-17s sorties over the last few days is simple: it is entirely reasonable that the ROC ADIZ wouldn't have reported on all 120 sorties from Shandong, because we have no indication that more than 4 of them flew into the ROC ADIZ. We do not know how many they actually detected outside of the ADIZ, because the ROC side doesn't give us that information.

What happened to the map and aircraft breakdown?

As with last year, at least one PLAN ship approached within visual range of Heping Power Plant where the distinctive smokestack is visible:
Also, Tropic of Cancer monument near Hualien was also recorded

Heping power plant smoke stack:

Tropic of Cancer monument:

siegecrossbow said:

What happened to the map and aircraft breakdown?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1645429756161298433

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that comes in another hour or two.

coolgod said:

Apparently Taiwan denied the sonic boom is from their planes, Chinese netizens suspect it is from the J-20. Does anyone know why J-20? Can't most Chinese fighters fly to east Taiwan and go supersonic?

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They're still going on about the sonic booms over there:





Note image 3, as per @coolgod ROCAF says their F-16 based at Halien did not go supersonic during recent flights so it's not them, so officially cause is still unknown.

Also I didn't know this before but apparently the "dragon roar" sound commonly associated with J-20 is actually only observed on Al-31 engine J-20, WS-10C doesn't have this effect.

Temstar said:

They're still going on about the sonic booms over there:

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Note image 3, as per @coolgod ROCAF says their F-16 based at Halien did not go supersonic during recent flights so it's not them, so officially cause is still unknown.

Also I didn't know this before but apparently the "dragon roar" sound commonly associated with J-20 is actually only observed on Al-31 engine J-20, WS-10C doesn't have this effect.

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Speculation that it's J-20s doing flybys close to or in ROC airspace is a bit too much hopium from some people.

The threshold for evidence of that kind of action should be very high, given how risky it would be if a J-20 were able to be detected or even engaged if they did something like that.


I suspect the most likely answer is just ROCAF fighters going supersonic and them not conveying it accurately.

Map posted. Impressive, at least 15 J-15's were operating within Taiwan's ADIZ.