PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Blitzo said:

Speculation that it's J-20s doing flybys close to or in ROC airspace is a bit too much hopium from some people.

The threshold for evidence of that kind of action should be very high, given how risky it would be if a J-20 were able to be detected or even engaged if they did something like that.


I suspect the most likely answer is just ROCAF fighters going supersonic and them not conveying it accurately.

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Temstar said:

I agree that it's a lot of unnecessary risk for this to be J-20 so seems unlikely. I just think it feels like a rushed cover up much like the reaction last year with DF-15 overflight. It would be interesting to know if something they feel is embarrassing happened.

Up to this point in history the general thinking on the island has been that east coast of Taiwan is considered their "strategic rear" and relatively safe area, hence why Hualien has that underground hardened air base for ROCAF to retreat to for force preservation. Presence of aircraft from CSG on east side might be considered embarrassing as it upends their calculation.

I remember last year a talking head on Taiwanese TV said Chinese ballistic missiles have to circumvent the globe and hit them from the pacific side if they want to strike the east side as that person thought the central mountains provided a shield against ballistic missiles. This would be reflective of their whole "east coast is safe" thinking.

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FairAndUnbiased said:

Do these guys physics? Copium or incompetence?

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Temstar said:

I agree that it's a lot of unnecessary risk for this to be J-20 so seems unlikely. I just think it feels like a rushed cover up much like the reaction last year with DF-15 overflight. It would be interesting to know if something they feel is embarrassing happened.

Up to this point in history the general thinking on the island has been that east coast of Taiwan is considered their "strategic rear" and relatively safe area, hence why Hualien has that underground hardened air base for ROCAF to retreat to for force preservation. Presence of aircraft from CSG on east side might be considered embarrassing as it upends their calculation.

I remember last year a talking head on Taiwanese TV said Chinese ballistic missiles have to circumvent the globe and hit them from the pacific side if they want to strike the east side as that person thought the central mountains provided a shield against ballistic missiles. This would be reflective of their whole "east coast is safe" thinking.

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nelBi said:

To be fair China's sorties generation capabilities are still magnitudes higher from the mainland west of Taiwan than what they could generate with aircraft carriers to the East. The mountainous east portion of Taiwan is still comparatively safer than their west coast.

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• officers drinking and playing cards with enlisted men and not paying attention to the radar screen
• when they see PLAN ships sail past the midline and approaching the coast they just manually edit the position and move it westward and everything is fine
• rampant nepotism, corporal who's close with the CO plays Switch while on duty and doesn't give a shit

coolgod said:

Those ROCMND people aren't stupid, showing real maps would scare the frogs, doesn't help them at all. Likewise there are some on this forum who doubt China's Coast Guard boarded ships during the recent exercises since nothing was reported. If China's Coast Guard actually boarded Taiwanese ships, would Taiwan have the guts to report it?

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Blitzo said:

That kind of thing is pretty difficult to keep hidden by all the parties involved in such an interaction, especially given how much international shipping there is in the strait in general.

I would also add that the claims of ROC MND deliberate nepotism and cover ups to that extent, while not impossible, are relatively significant and require substantial evidence to be considered as viable, and of course it also doesn't mean the systemic entire ROC military is like that either.


I understand people here may want to gleefully take indicators of ROC military gross incompetence at face value, but there are standards to be held to and if such rumours and claims were internally made about the PLA as well then we'd treat it with high levels of skepticism and do due diligence as well, absence of consistent and compelling indicators as evidence.

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Temstar said:

View attachment 110836
Controversy from within ROC, soldier responsible for sea searching radar complaining that:

• officers drinking and playing cards with enlisted men and not paying attention to the radar screen
• when they see PLAN ships sail past the midline and approaching the coast they just manually edit the position and move it westward and everything is fine
• rampant nepotism, corporal who's close with the CO plays Switch while on duty and doesn't give a shit

MND is naturally calling this fake news and investigating. It looks like thing we've long suspected is true: those ROCMND maps showing track are not to be trusted. In this case though this guy is seeing the rot at low level.

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Temstar said:

View attachment 110836
Controversy from within ROC, soldier responsible for sea searching radar complaining that:

• officers drinking and playing cards with enlisted men and not paying attention to the radar screen
• when they see PLAN ships sail past the midline and approaching the coast they just manually edit the position and move it westward and everything is fine
• rampant nepotism, corporal who's close with the CO plays Switch while on duty and doesn't give a shit

MND is naturally calling this fake news and investigating. It looks like thing we've long suspected is true: those ROCMND maps showing track are not to be trusted. In this case though this guy is seeing the rot at low level.

Click to expand...