PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Z

Zichan

Junior Member
Registered Member
The much talked about war game from last year was finished and the results published. :
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The conclusion favors US intervention in the analyzed timeframe: 2023 - 2026.

The US, Japan and Taiwan were able to foil a Chinese invasion, albeit at heavy losses. Two USN carrier were sunk, including two dozen more surface combatants. Hundreds of US aircraft were destroyed, 90% of which on the ground.

Unlike in Ukraine, it was impossible to resupply Taiwan throughout the conflict.

China lost upwards of 100 ships. US bombers inflicted devastating damage before they ran out of missiles in day 4. US submarines wreaked havoc throughout the conflict.
 
siegecrossbow

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Zichan said:
The much talked about war game from last year was finished and the results published. :
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


The conclusion favors US intervention in the analyzed timeframe: 2023 - 2026.

The US, Japan and Taiwan were able to foil a Chinese invasion, albeit at heavy losses. Two USN carrier were sunk, including two dozen more surface combatants. Hundreds of US aircraft were destroyed, 90% of which on the ground.

Unlike in Ukraine, it was impossible to resupply Taiwan throughout the conflict.

China lost upwards of 100 ships. US bombers inflicted devastating damage before they ran out of missiles in day 4. US submarines wreaked havoc throughout the conflict.
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Zichan said:
The much talked about war game from last year was finished and the results published. :
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!


The conclusion favors US intervention in the analyzed timeframe: 2023 - 2026.

The US, Japan and Taiwan were able to foil a Chinese invasion, albeit at heavy losses. Two USN carrier were sunk, including two dozen more surface combatants. Hundreds of US aircraft were destroyed, 90% of which on the ground.

Unlike in Ukraine, it was impossible to resupply Taiwan throughout the conflict.

China lost upwards of 100 ships. US bombers inflicted devastating damage before they ran out of missiles in day 4. US submarines wreaked havoc throughout the conflict.
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The project assumed the Taiwanese units were as effective as similarly sized and equipped Chinese units. The project team recognizes that there is a vigorous debate about the quality of the Taiwanese armed forces. Some argue that its training is stylized and unimaginative, the readiness of units is poor, and conscripts acquire few useful military skills. On the other hand, the Taiwanese would be defending their homeland and might show the tenacity and ingenuity that the Ukrainians have shown in their struggle against Russia. Nevertheless, even with high morale, the lack of training and top- tier equipment means that Taiwanese reserve forces operate at half strength in the base case.
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Don’t mean to be arrogant but that’s a big no. Not even hardcore pan green types believe that.

The fifth-generation aircraft of the PLA Air Force (PLAAF) suffer from the lack of a suitable domestically produced engine and have, therefore, only been produced in limited numbers. The PLA Navy (PLAN) lacks an adequate fighter for its carriers, and its submarine quieting technology remains immature. Despite recent growth, the sustainability and support capabilities of air-to-air refueling aircraft and amphibious warfare ships are limited. Perhaps most importantly, the PLA’s “software” (e.g., training, joint operations, and other human elements) is only beginning to adapt to the requirements of modern high-intensity warfare.15 PLA leaders are aware of and addressing all the organization’s weaknesses, and China watchers expect improvement in virtually all areas over time. Indeed, President Xi Jinping called for improving military readiness in his speech to the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party in October 2022.16
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Guess over 150 airframes is limited huh.
 
A

ashnole

New Member
Registered Member
Zichan said:
Two USN carrier were sunk, including two dozen more surface combatants. Hundreds of US aircraft were destroyed, 90% of which on the ground.
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2 x $10B CVNs + 2 x $9B CVWs + 24 x $3B DDGs (or other warships) + let's say 1000 × $100M jets (or other aircraft) = $210B worth of damage. Peanuts, basically. Even COVID did more monetary damage to America.

This report is so incredibly stupid lol.
 
BMUFL

BMUFL

Junior Member
Registered Member
luosifen said:
This was US losses vs. just ETC? So what's stopping STC or NTC from moving in for round 2 and 3...
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Developer console command magic, please understand.
Seriously though, none of the publicly-shown wargames should be taken seriously, because they are all probably there to ask for more money for weapons. Meanwhile, the actual serious analyses with real systems profiles, etc. are probably under TS/SCI classification, and will never be shown to public, nevermind being published by a think tank.
 
B

BlackWindMnt

Captain
Registered Member
siegecrossbow said:
Don’t mean to be arrogant but that’s a big no. Not even hardcore pan green types believe that.



Guess over 150 airframes is limited huh.
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Seems like the US will experience another fall of Kabul if they really believe that, they said the afghan government had 300k army highly trained and equipped and it would take at least 3 months before the Afghan army would buckle one week later the Taliban had conquered Kabul.
 
A

ACuriousPLAFan

Brigadier
Registered Member
Bringing the discussion over from the Breaking & World News Thread (Breaking & World News! III NO DISCUSSION!!).

By now, I believe that China and Australia both understood the importance of Indonesia, Timor Leste, Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands for their own safety and security as the tensions across the WestPac keep piling up. In Beijing's view, in case of war in the WestPac over Taiwan, Australia certainly would intervene in the conflict against China by playing the role as the US Airfield No. 2.

In this context, the archipelago chain of Indonesia, Timor Leste, Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands would either:
1. Work for China (by becoming a barrier):
cnb.jpg
2. Or work against China (by becoming a spike strip):
aub.jpg

Therefore, in order to safeguard China's southern regions from attacks by Australian and American bombers, warships and long-range missiles originating from Australia, I think Beijing should do her best to achieve some kind of agreements and deals with Jakarta, Dili, Timor Leste and Honaira that would:
#1 - Allowing Chinese radars to be stationed on Timor and/or Lesser Sunda Islands in order to provide early warning on B-52 bombers, warships and long-range missile strikes that are launched from and around Australia;
#2 - Enforcing ban against flyovers by Australian and American warplanes over their airspaces in case war breaks out, plus providing support to shoot down their warplanes in case they intrude Indonesian and/or Timor Leste airspaces (similar bans against overflying missiles should also be considered as well); and
#3 - Prevent any attempts by Washington DC and Canberra to do the same with their governments WRT points #1 and #2.

Regarding Indonesia's case in particular, I think would be in Beijing's interests to come to a permanent, negotiated settlement with Jakarta regarding their disputes over the EEZ around the Natuna Islands. This is because unlike the Parcel and Spratly Islands which China can use as bargaining chips when dealing with the Philippines, there is nothing in the SCS that China could use as a bargaining chip with Indonesia.

Time is of the essence.
 
H

HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
AndrewS said:
On the topic of deterrence, one of the things that has recently occurred is non-Western central banks putting together an alternative to the USD payment network using CBDCs and swap lines, as per Bloomberg and Credit Suisse, amongst others. This really picked up momentum since Ukraine and then the Pelosi visit which scared a lot of countries.

Basically the day that the US sanctions China is the day that the US Dollar dies as the global reserve currency, which will impose huge costs on the US. But this doesn't appear to have been discussed much outside of financial or government spheres.
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I haven't thought about this before you brought this up, but I think you are being too assertive. The ensuing economic and financial chaos is likely to stress global exchange reserves, which are overwhelmingly denominated in USD and Euros, likely increasing the demand for both currencies. Not to say that I think your scenario is impossible, I can certainly see the USD losing its status as a global reserve currency, but I don't see it as a foregone conclusion.
 
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