PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Isn't the high attrition also because of the almost peer-to-peer confrontation between Ukraine and Russia? Neither side have effectively done SEAD

In a China - Taiwan scenario I presume Chinese drones would have a lot less attrition because the first waves would have neutered Taiwanese air defences by a huge degree. At that point, drones would start coming in and clean up any left over fish and less important targets

Overbom said:

Isn't the high attrition also because of the almost peer-to-peer confrontation between Ukraine and Russia? Neither side have effectively done SEAD

In a China - Taiwan scenario I presume Chinese drones would have a lot less attrition because the first waves would have neutered Taiwanese air defences by a huge degree. At that point, drones would start coming in and clean up any left over fish and less important targets

Click to expand...

I think the problem with trying to say anything definite is limited by our lack of knowledge on PLA capacity, they have the tech but due to opacity we do not have the numbers.

A few dozen of MALE UAVs vs a few hundred can make a massive difference between successful SEAD or just a lot of shot down UAVs.

tankphobia said:

Aren't most mainstay Chinese UAVs for ISR/Strike actually much larger than the ones used in Ukraine? I'd think they'll be much more vunerable to AA fire compared to TB-2 for example, which basically only survived the first two days of the war before Russia got their AA in place.

The path forward may just be mass-decentralised AI controlled swarms rather than large expensive platforms that are prone to attrition.

Click to expand...

Yes sure, hence the J-6 UAVs going in first to soak up fire and act as loitering anti-radiation munition to suppress AA.

alfreddango said:

hasn't the war in ukraine highlighted the facts that MALEs are hardly survivable if the enemy has some sort of air defense? even man portable systems can bring them down

Click to expand...

IMO MALEs are doing better than most sensible people expected. I would like to learn about how much damage a TB-2 inflicts before going down both directly and indirectly. But they have numerous limitations, especially in a war with clear lines and high unsuppressed SAM density like the Russian-Ukrainian war. As soon as Russia stopped its attempts at mobile warfare the TB-2 videos became scarce. They are slow, thus unsurvivable, and low in firepower. Thus numbers are the key. Fleets of 12-40 are just token fleets.

MALEs are absolutely not alternatives to fighter jets, arty and larger missiles as some people were asserting before this war. But they are still useful for ISR.

tankphobia said:

Aren't most mainstay Chinese UAVs for ISR/Strike actually much larger than the ones used in Ukraine? I'd think they'll be much more vunerable to AA fire compared to TB-2 for example, which basically only survived the first two days of the war before Russia got their AA in place.

The path forward may just be mass-decentralised AI controlled swarms rather than large expensive platforms that are prone to attrition.

Click to expand...

Wing Loong 2 isn't expensive. The ones sold to countries like UAE and Saudi are $2 million USD. I would think the PLA GJ-2 would be around that ball park, maybe a bit more expensive depending on the capabilities. Close equivalent like the Reaper is 8 times that price point (side note: India got ripped off for these with $100 mil per unit). TB-2 isn't the same weight class and it's more expensive. Drone swarms has its uses but won't offer the persistent ISR and combination of weapons loads that something like GJ-2 will have.

Chilled_k6 said:

Wing Loong 2 isn't expensive. The ones sold to countries like UAE and Saudi are $2 million USD. I would think the PLA GJ-2 would be around that ball park, maybe a bit more expensive depending on the capabilities. Close equivalent like the Reaper is 8 times that price point (side note: India got ripped off for these with $100 mil per unit). TB-2 isn't the same weight class and it's more expensive. Drone swarms has its uses but won't offer the persistent ISR and combination of weapons loads that something like GJ-2 will have.

Click to expand...

Of course, cost is probably low per unit, but to achieve the effect you desire for potentially hundreds of UAV armed and airborne over Taiwan continuously would require substantial investment in infrastructure that we don't know whether China currently have.

Spread out all over China? Sure, since UAV is becoming common place in PLA. But the question is whether they can concentrate all of that relatively closely to Taiwan, a question which I don't think any of us will have a definite answer since it would be military secret, note that I'm not talking about command side since you can put that anywhere with satellite relay. You also need to arm, replenish and recover as close as possible for maximum on station time while also competing against other military aircraft for runway usage. Disposable kamikaze UAV make this equation trivial.

tankphobia said:

I think the problem with trying to say anything definite is limited by our lack of knowledge on PLA capacity, they have the tech but due to opacity we do not have the numbers.

A few dozen of MALE UAVs vs a few hundred can make a massive difference between successful SEAD or just a lot of shot down UAVs.

Click to expand...

Industrial wise China's strategic position is more like the US was in WW2, while Taiwan and the US are more in the Axis position, meaning that if the PLA needs thousands of UAVs in a total mobilization situation it can ramp up very quickly to meet increased demand and in countering OPFORs replenishment capability.

Zichan said:

The much talked about war game from last year was finished and the results published. :

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

The conclusion favors US intervention in the analyzed timeframe: 2023 - 2026.

The US, Japan and Taiwan were able to foil a Chinese invasion, albeit at heavy losses. Two USN carrier were sunk, including two dozen more surface combatants. Hundreds of US aircraft were destroyed, 90% of which on the ground.

Unlike in Ukraine, it was impossible to resupply Taiwan throughout the conflict.

China lost upwards of 100 ships. US bombers inflicted devastating damage before they ran out of missiles in day 4. US submarines wreaked havoc throughout the conflict.

Click to expand...

I kept reading about about the US submarine fleet somehow sinking the landing ships. Yet at the same time, everything I've read about the Taiwan strait is that it's narrow and shallow, which is literally the worst environment for subs to operate in, did they ever address the effectiveness of US submarine in this regard or did they not bother?

Breadbox said:

Yet at the same time, everything I've read about the Taiwan strait is that it's narrow and shallow, which is literally the worst environment for subs to operate in, did they ever address the effectiveness of US submarine in this regard or did they not bother?

Click to expand...

The wargame was by CSIS, what do you think..

Breadbox said:

I kept reading about about the US submarine fleet somehow sinking the landing ships. Yet at the same time, everything I've read about the Taiwan strait is that it's narrow and shallow, which is literally the worst environment for subs to operate in, did they ever address the effectiveness of US submarine in this regard or did they not bother?

Click to expand...

Shallow waters are beneficial to submarines because the environment makes it extremely hard to detect them.

Don’t forget that PLAN will be operating a large number of ships to the east of Taiwan. They might attempt amphibious landings on Okinawa, etc.