1) it’s a ridiculously stupid strawman to argue that not going with your silly suggestions equates to not preparing for war.
No need to get worked up. Here are you words, read them again
The PLA has high confidence of being able to handle the coming fight with what they have operationally deployed and within the existing pipeline of production and procurement. It doesn’t need to go into panic mode and throw piles of money at problems hoping to magically solve them overnight
Increased military spending takes time to materialise which is why increased military spending should had happened years ago but anyway, better later than never. Given that the 2020s is an extremely dangerous decade, even if this increase happened in 2023, it would still help if/when a war happens in a few years. So not overnight, nowhere did I say that problems would be solved overnight.
2) military spending increase doesn’t immediately or necessarily translate into increases in overall combat power or effectiveness.
See above. I don't know why you are so fixated on this issue. Yes, military spending takes time to materially affect a military. It helps, but not immediately
With all the will in the world, you can only increase your production levels so far before you max out your production capacity. Throwing more money at it won’t magically move your production levels higher, all it will do is create inflation. This, just-throw-more-money-at-the-problem approach is precisely where America went wrong and why it’s getting so abysmally poor return for its eye watering military expenditure.
"Maxed out production capacity" only means that you stopped investing further. Human capital (can be trained with time) is there, resources are there, whats missing is money. Money to expand/build more factories and expand your supply chain.
Unless you somehow think that the current stock of big items are enough (missiles, ICBMs, hypersonic missiles, J-20, subs, surface vessels etc).
You can never have too many of these big items. The more the better. If you cant win with quality, then just drown the enemy with quantity. And in any case, any non-short term war will quickly need quantity as well, so no harm on expanding production
3) You are not considering at all what such ridiculously transparent and aggressive moves would do to your opponent’s calculations and timetables.
Strategically I already consider the US as a war opponent, so all of my writings are based on the fact that I believe there is a >50% chance of a war happening in a few years.
The US doesnt need any excuses to do its own things. Its already significantly expanding its missile stockpile and is preparing for a war. What China does or doesnt do won't affect their preparations because they have already started preparing for a war by themselves lol
Right now, the US on paper has a bigger military and more firepower. But everyone including the pentagon are acutely aware that time is not on their side.
Yes
China announcing massive hikes in its official defence spending would only supercharge those fears and exasperate the use-it-or-loose-it dilemma for the US and push the US into starting a war sooner rather than later to try to cash in on its perceived current military advantage before all that extra spending from China translates into new planes, ships and nukes to erase that advantage
Where we differ is that I think that the Pentagon is already seriously planning for a war. Even if China started significant expansion, the US wouldn't start a war because they have not finished their preparations. Their missile stockpiling program hasn't finished yet. When their preparations are complete, there is high chance that a war will start.
China has been building at just about the limits of its production capabilities for years now. They cannot meaningfully boost output without significantly expanded production facilities. Facilities which started construction years ago and are now nearing or entering production.
And? Build more production facilities then, that's what's the increased military spending is all about. Expansion of production facilities and supply chains while training your human capital. You never know, a war might start in 2025, or it might start in 2030. Just build them now and you can ramp up later
You seem to think that China should try to out-American the Americans by being more brash and loud and bluff them into backing down without thinking about the current balance of power. Which is where you are fundamentally misunderstanding the game and how to play it
What I believe is very simple. Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun.
This isn't America of the Cold War with seasoned diplomats and responsible politicians. This is America of the crazy dogs.
You dont deal with the crazies by talking to them, you deal with them by taking a shotgun, shoving it down their throat and pulling the trigger if they dare to do anything.
You don't reason with crazies and radicals. You just show them your military, and you promise that you are going to hunt them all the way till the end of the earth and put them down if they dare to do anything stupid.
That's where we differ, you believe America is logical and rational and that's the basis of your claims. My argument though is based on one simple thing, that America is crazy and that the best way to deal with the crazies is to scare the jesus out of them Putin-nuclear style.
And in case they aren't scared enough to not start a war, bomb them to smithereens. Talk is talk, and bomb is bomb. Crazies don't need any of that talk, bombing them is good enough. My claim of wanting significant increase of military spending is for this, to bomb them, and bomb them good, and in case they aren't bombed, keep bombing them until they drop dead. If you want logic and rationality, you can save that for their funeral
That's my way of thinking. Talk for rational countries, shotgun for crazy countries
One of the main reasons America had basically thrown caution to the wind in its provocations against China is that it has assessed that China is already building new planes, ships, nukes and tanks as fast as it can. China has been investing massively to boost its production capabilities, but because that doesn’t count as part of the military budget you don’t care.
Not fast enough. The current nukes situation especially is a joke for a rising power looking to challenge the hegemon. Thats a good place where increased military spending could have gone if it had happened years ago. Same with J-20 (even taking into account the recent expansion). we will see in 2023 and 2024 if we get another big jump in production rate
The next big item is H-20, we will see there how much budget was allocated to them by their production rate. If its anything like 3-4 per year after their first year of production (to iron out initial production issues) I swear, i am going to lose my mind lol
What China needs above all else is time. Which is whgChina’s strategy is designed to buy itself as much time as possible to grow its military and economy while yours is all about pushing for confrontation now because at the core, your strategy revolves on being able to cow the Americans into not attacking when they still think they have a sizeable military advantage.
That's a good summary. Yes China needs time, the issue is that the US could strike as soon as in 2025/26. The more China accumulates by 2025/26, the better its position would be. And you never know, maybe America gets more anxious (I firmly believe that America will stick with its preparation schedule and won't attack prematurely) and decides to attack when it isnt fully ready, maybe it gets more scared Putin-nukes style. Putting your entire strategy on the whims of your opponent isn't wise, just do your own thing well and if America is deterred, good. If not, well at least I am as ready as I could be, no regrets.
Essentially your strategy is like someone trying to threaten a thug into backing down by waving your invoice for guns and ammo that you just ordered in his face
I am not waving invoices. I am waving the real things, they are already operational in their regiments, brigades, naval formations. The US is more than welcome to use its satellites and count them one by one, I will even position them in a certain way so that they resemble a a certain shape when viewed from above, a shape all boys and men can easily recognise, in order to get the message across in case they are brain damaged and can't count.
If not ready, just count my production facilities and make a move if you want, but with the knowledge that next year I can output what I produced in the last 3 years combined.
