PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

and trash talking about how you will have a bigger gun than him when that order arrives and how you are going to take him down once that happens,

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Exactly, I am going to make it very clear that in case they do anything stupid, I am ready to drag this out and drown them by increased production. No need for to await for a war to start to begin this process of building production facilities, expanding facilities, training workers after the war. I am going to do it right now so by the time your preparations for war ready, you will know that my production rate has increased x times.

You should feel the horror before you start the war, not afterwards.

all the while ignoring the fact he has the bigger gun right now. You think this thug is more likely to drop on his knees and beg for your forgiveness while I think he is more likely to pull out his gun and bust some caps in your butt before your order arrives.

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The thug isn't going to attack right now because he is also not prepared now. He is waiting for his preparations to reach a certain stage before he starts a new adventure

"The expansion involves access to Philippine military bases, likely including two on the northern island of Luzon — which, analysts said, could give U.S. forces a strategic position from which to mount operations in the event of a conflict in Taiwan or the South China Sea".

"The expected EDCA expansion will follow an announcement earlier this month that the U.S. Marine Corps will be revamping a unit in Okinawa to be better able to fight in austere, remote islands by 2025. Under the plan, a new Marine Littoral Regiment would be equipped with advanced capabilities, such as anti-ship missiles that could be fired at Chinese ships in the event of a Taiwan conflict".

Stierlitz said:

"The expansion involves access to Philippine military bases, likely including two on the northern island of Luzon — which, analysts said, could give U.S. forces a strategic position from which to mount operations in the event of a conflict in Taiwan or the South China Sea".

"The expected EDCA expansion will follow an announcement earlier this month that the U.S. Marine Corps will be revamping a unit in Okinawa to be better able to fight in austere, remote islands by 2025. Under the plan, a new Marine Littoral Regiment would be equipped with advanced capabilities, such as anti-ship missiles that could be fired at Chinese ships in the event of a Taiwan conflict".

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To sum it up, the US intends for the First Island Chain (FIC) to become a missile wall directly aimed at China's core. The wall is going to be bristled with hundreds of long-range missile launchers dotted along the Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan and the Philippines.

These long-range missiles will be deployed for:
1. Attacking PLAN warships from very huge distances away, effectively turning them into sea-denial weapons to prevent PLAN warships from even leaving their naval bases;
2. First-strikes against PLA military bases, stations and installations along the Chinese coastline and the inland regions of China, considering the range, which effectively reduces the strategic depth that the PLA could use; and
3. Most importantly, directly attacking the industrial sites and transportation infrastructures along the Chinese coastline and the inland regions of China, thus aiming to significantly impact China's war effort and war-waging potential.

In short, this wall wants to firmly lock China from even accessing the China Seas, let alone the WestPac. This is not yet excluding the possibility where these missiles could be employed as weapons of terror against the Chinese civilian population.

Besides, there is also the problem where the US Marines are working to disperse along the FIC using quick-action task forces, where they can set up temporary bases anywhere along the FIC to house and operate F-35Bs and long-range missile launchers. This would also complicates China's war-fighting effort, as more resources have to be put into finding and eliminating them on-time.

Hence, this situation (the proliferation of long-range missiles along the FIC) will become a huge, potent and acute strategic-level threat against China. This is with the background knowledge where in case China initiates AR over Taiwan, the US is definitely going to push those along the wall i.e. Japan, South Korea, Australia and the Philippines into becoming war damage sponges for the US against China.

Something seriously needs to be done in order to promptly and effectively address this acute problem for China. Things ain't looking good TBH...

ACuriousPLAFan said:

To sum it up, the US intends for the First Island Chain (FIC) to become a missile wall directly aimed at China. The wall is going to be bristled with hundreds of long-range missile launchers dotted along the Ryukyu Islands, Taiwan and the Philippines.

These long-range missiles will be deployed for:
1. Attacking PLAN warships from hundreds of kilometers away, effectively turning them into sea-denial weapons to prevent PLAN warships from even leaving their naval bases;
2. First-strikes against PLAmilitary bases, stations and installations along the Chinese coastline and the inland regions of China, considering the range, which effectively reduces the strategic depth that the PLA could use; and
3. Most importantly, directly attacking the industrial sites and transportation infrastructures along the Chinese coastline and the inland regions of China, thus aiming to significantly impact China's war effort and war-waging potential.

In short, this wall will function to firmly lock China from even accessing the China Seas, let alone the WestPac. This is not yet excluding the possibility where these missiles could be employed as weapons of terror against the Chinese civilian population.

Besides, there is also the problem where the US Marines are working to disperse along the FIC using quick-action task forces, where they can set up temporary bases anywhere along the FIC to house and operate F-35Bs and long-range missile launchers. This would also complicates China's war-fighting effort, as more resources have to be put into searching them on-time.

Hence, I believe that the proliferation of long-range missiles along the FIC is going to be a huge and direct strategic threat against China. This is with the background where in case China starts an AR over Taiwan, the US is definitely going to push Japan, South Korea, Australia and the Philippines into becoming war damage sponges for the US against China.

Something seriously needs to be done in order to promptly and effectively address this acute problem for China.

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that's the American goal but it'll be very difficult for that scenario you laid out to come to pass in all of those countries especially in the Philippines.

Yes, for sure most of the folks are pro-America that encompasses their culture, politics, media etc. but those things as important as they are could not prevent Duterte from becoming President who was not exactly singing the American pledge of allegiance. I have been in the Philippines long enough to have some intimate feel and knowledge of that country.

The only thing that can tilt the Philippines to maybe fully embrace that suicidal pact with the US if China were to kill (Fishermen, Coast guards) by accident through aggressive maneuvers in their disputed areas the Philippines call the West Philippine Sea because that would simply fit right in with the narrative Americans, and the media lackeys in the Philippines have been broadcasting and am certain are wishing to happen. That sort of incident would not only put China at a very severe disadvantage diplomatically but may even place China to the point of no return in terms of taking actions preemptively, prematurely since the loud calls for a potential boycott, diplomatic fall out from ASEAN org all the way to the UN. India would be happy to weaken China since they also have the ongoing land border issue.

These recent pronouncements are not a done deal sign signed sealed or delivered. Unless we're seeing a public signed declaration of this supposed deal between the US and the Philippines I'll deem this news as nothing more than to gauge China's actions and reaction, even hoping that China would become so unmoored, betrayed that it'll simply see the Philippines as nothing more than an extension of the American foreign policy.

Stierlitz said:

"The expansion involves access to Philippine military bases, likely including two on the northern island of Luzon — which, analysts said, could give U.S. forces a strategic position from which to mount operations in the event of a conflict in Taiwan or the South China Sea".

"The expected EDCA expansion will follow an announcement earlier this month that the U.S. Marine Corps will be revamping a unit in Okinawa to be better able to fight in austere, remote islands by 2025. Under the plan, a new Marine Littoral Regiment would be equipped with advanced capabilities, such as anti-ship missiles that could be fired at Chinese ships in the event of a Taiwan conflict".

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This is why it's so crucial to choose the right moment for restarting hostilities in the Taiwan strait. Let them declare independence or attack a Chinese asset first. Something like the sinking of the RMS Lusitania is a good casus belli. If a colour revolution on Taiwan finishes the ROC, then the Philippines is unlikely to allow US forces to begin an unprovoked attack on China from bases there and make itself a target. If China chooses the Putin way and just start a war at a random time for no reason other than what many will perceive as territorial greed, then there is a possibility that the Philippines and Singapore might be forced to allow American operations from their soil

Bellum_Romanum said:

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that's the American goal but it'll be very difficult for that scenario you laid out to come to pass in all of those countries especially in the Philippines.

Yes, for sure most of the folks are pro-America that encompasses their culture, politics, media etc. but those things as important as they are could not prevent Duterte from becoming President who was not exactly singing the American pledge of allegiance. I have been in the Philippines long enough to have some intimate feel and knowledge of that country.

The only thing that can tilt the Philippines to maybe fully embrace that suicidal pact with the US if China were to kill (Fishermen, Coast guards) by accident through aggressive maneuvers in their disputed areas the Philippines call the West Philippine Sea because that would simply fit right in with the narrative Americans, and the media lackeys in the Philippines have been broadcasting and am certain are wishing to happen. That sort of incident would not only put China at a very severe disadvantage diplomatically but may even place China to the point of no return in terms of taking actions preemptively, prematurely since the loud calls for a potential boycott, diplomatic fall out from ASEAN org all the way to the UN. India would be happy to weaken China since they also have the ongoing land border issue.

These recent pronouncements are not a done deal sign signed sealed or delivered. Unless we're seeing a public signed declaration of this supposed deal between the US and the Philippines I'll deem this news as nothing more than to gauge China's actions and reaction, even hoping that China would become so unmoored, betrayed that it'll simply see the Philippines as nothing more than an extension of the American foreign policy.

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Edited my response above:

The only thing that can tilt the Philippines to maybe fully embrace that suicidal pact with the US if China were to kill (Fishermen, Coast guards) by accident through aggressive maneuvers in their disputed areas the Philippines call the West Philippine Sea because that would simply fit right in with the narrative Americans, and the media lackeys in the Philippines have been broadcasting (China aims to conquer and own the Philippines as it's own, meaning China as an exoansionist neo-colonial, imperialist power) and am certain are wishing to happen. That sort of incident would not only put China at a very severe disadvantage diplomatically but may even place China to the point of no return in terms of taking actions preemptively, prematurely since the loud calls for a potential boycott, diplomatic fall out from ASEAN org all the way to the UN. India would be happy to weaken China since they also have the ongoing land border issue. Since Russia has been weakened and exposed militarily as weak and not as strong as most of us assumed then it'll be a dangerous situation for the world over all since the PLA and China for that matter isn't exactly feared for their military prowess at least from the western perspective.

China has to see this recent propaganda news through and let their diplomats and most importantly their intelligence officers/Spies to sniff the shit out the reality of this deal and then take action that will not precipitate the start of a shooting war hastening prematurely the Taiwan scenario as a result.

Filipinos could barely beat a rag tag terrorists during the battle in Marawi for obvious reasons (Philippines lack all the necessary equipment, logistics, personel, and MONEY to sustain what was a low intensity conflict) and now they're expected to be used as a staging ground for an American led war of aggression against China? NUTS.

Filipinos are in dire needs of economic IMPROVEMENTS in order to provide and feed their large families (they love to make babies) considering that much of the food prices and commodities have spiked due to the combination of Covid-19 induced economic shocks plus the energy shock and currency driven inflation largely driven from the inflationary interest hikes in the U.S. FILIPINOS will not clamour for this b.s. if they are to be told the details if such a plan were to pass

Bellum_Romanum said:

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that's the American goal but it'll be very difficult for that scenario you laid out to come to pass in all of those countries especially in the Philippines.

Yes, for sure most of the folks are pro-America that encompasses their culture, politics, media etc. but those things as important as they are could not prevent Duterte from becoming President who was not exactly singing the American pledge of allegiance. I have been in the Philippines long enough to have some intimate feel and knowledge of that country.

The only thing that can tilt the Philippines to maybe fully embrace that suicidal pact with the US if China were to kill (Fishermen, Coast guards) by accident through aggressive maneuvers in their disputed areas the Philippines call the West Philippine Sea because that would simply fit right in with the narrative Americans, and the media lackeys in the Philippines have been broadcasting and am certain are wishing to happen. That sort of incident would not only put China at a very severe disadvantage diplomatically but may even place China to the point of no return in terms of taking actions preemptively, prematurely since the loud calls for a potential boycott, diplomatic fall out from ASEAN org all the way to the UN. India would be happy to weaken China since they also have the ongoing land border issue.

These recent pronouncements are not a done deal sign signed sealed or delivered. Unless we're seeing a public signed declaration of this supposed deal between the US and the Philippines I'll deem this news as nothing more than to gauge China's actions and reaction, even hoping that China would become so unmoored, betrayed that it'll simply see the Philippines as nothing more than an extension of the American foreign policy.

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I'm not just talking about the Philippines. I'm talking about the entire FIC, with the Phillippines being a potential but crucial addition into enforcing the FIC's role of locking China from accessing the WestPac entirely.

More specifically, I was talking about the technical side of things. In particular, the acute threat possed by long-range missiles stationed along the FIC against the Chinese military, the Chinese people and the country. This is the part-and-parcel of asymmetrical warfare which I see the US is moving its focus and onto towards employing them against China, apart from symmetrical warfare in the WestPac.

Of course, I do know that the Filipino army isn't really what China has to spend many sleepless nights for (that would be the AUKUS and QUAD). However, their geography and ecology can make them potent grounds for the US to wage asymmetrical warfare against China's holdings in the SCS in case Manlia is suicidal enough or forced to go to war with China.

But still, many thanks for your input regarding the Philippines. Although, what related to the topics would be the concern of how Washington DC could forcefully twist Manila's hand into agreeing to the US demand, despite Manila's reluctance to do so. We already know how such cases would happen, example being what former Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama had said about this, as a whole:

current- China is still a coastal power. Can defeat Taiwan if no inference at all.
2035- China is a mature power. Has a higher chance of claiming Taiwan even with inference.
2050- China is at prime time. Can push everyone back including U.S to Hawaii line.

5th gen jet- China is behind many years.
6th gen jet- China is almost neck to neck with the U.S
7th gen jet- maybe China will debut theirs first.

2050 is a much better time to reclaim Taiwan since China got the Brics support, Brics currency or alternative currency, nominal GDP surpassed U.S by 25% or more. 7th gen fighter jet and weapons.

China is a great power now, and it has a leader in Mr Xi who actually has it behaving like a great power, all it needs now is for the Chinese people to also believe that the PRC is a GREAT POWER.

You have to show that national reunification and national security will have zero compromise and watch the neighbours fall in line, you have to show will.

bebops said:

current- China is still a coastal power. Can defeat Taiwan if no inference at all.
2035- China is a mature power. Has a higher chance of claiming Taiwan even with inference.
2050- China is at prime time. Can push everyone back including U.S to Hawaii line.

5th gen jet- China is behind many years.
6th gen jet- China is almost neck to neck with the U.S
7th gen jet- maybe China will debut theirs first.

2050 is a much better time to reclaim Taiwan since China got the Brics support, Brics currency or alternative currency, nominal GDP surpassed U.S by 25% or more. 7th gen fighter jet and weapons.

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Are they your opinions or refer to something study? Please provide reasonings, not just wild out of the blue