PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

This is why you need to setup hundreds of undersea detectors all over the SCS along with thousands of long range sea mine (missile type).

If they can develop some swarm sea mine missile, this is better than single warhead sea mine.

Unmanned partner is very important in the next modern warfare. It is better to have your unmanned partner take the lead, detect the enemy for you and strike the target rather than risk losing the manned warship, fighter jet or submarine.

vincent said:

How do American ISR get real-time updates on the PLAN ships? All ISR platform (other than satellites) will be discovered and shot down if they get too close.
Missile swarm strategy is not very effective if the B-52’s and B-1b‘s have to launch the missiles blind.

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If the Americans have very limited number of ISR planes, drones and satellites, then sure.

ACuriousPLAFan said:

If the Americans have very limited number of ISR planes, drones and satellites, then sure.

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Planes and drones will be discovered and shot down. PLAAF bought 50-something KJ-500s for a reason.

vincent said:

Planes and drones will be discovered and shot down. PLAAF bought 50-something KJ-500s for a reason.

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I think the discussion seems to be a US-Japan First strike scenario.

While laying siege to Taiwan and on the condition PLA does not attack the alliance buildup prior, the US will be able to acquire some targeting intelligence by taking advantage of the close geography of the Ryukyus and the Philippines. Then the next step will be where the US-Japan alliance builds up enough assets to launch a massive first strike.

Chilled_k6 said:

I think the discussion seems to be a US-Japan First strike scenario.

While laying siege to Taiwan and on the condition PLA does not attack the alliance buildup prior, the US will be able to acquire some targeting intelligence by taking advantage of the close geography of the Ryukyus and the Philippines. Then the next step will be where the US-Japan alliance builds up enough assets to launch a massive first strike.

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Well, it would be in China’s interest to create an excuse to attack the build up before they are ready.

vincent said:

How do American ISR get real-time updates on the PLAN ships? All ISR platform (other than satellites) will be discovered and shot down if they get too close.
Missile swarm strategy is not very effective if the B-52’s and B-1b‘s have to launch the missiles blind.

Click to expand...

There will be over a hundred Chinese ships in a very small area of the Taiwan Straits.

So they can launch blind into this area and know there are targets

Patchwork_Chimera said:

There's a lot more to anti-shipping salvo generation than just pulling the trigger. Without effective coordination and synchronization, munitions end up being employed in piecemeal, scattered fashion, which absolutely plummets salvo pA.

Civilian merchant shipping will likely still be present during the (short) window that TW will be able to conduct anti-shipping missions, which creates the issue of not only civilian collateral casualties (which I personally don't regard as a concern, but we do take it seriously), but wasted munitions that end up prosecuting civilian vessels.

If it were as simple as push button -> missile launch, this would be true, but again, there is a whole lot more than goes into the whole ASuW process.

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Granted

But if they're talking about scenarios with 1000+ missiles, you would think there would be enough missiles to saturate a small target box in the Taiwan Straits, no matter how messy it gets.

I think we can ignore the silly assumption that China would launch an invasion straight away, and assume that this occurs when there is no purely civilian traffic in the Taiwan Straits.

Hence my view that a submarine with 2500nm ranged ballistic missiles is better used in the Pacific, rather than within the 2IC where China can already concentrate lots of force.

From the Northwest Pacific for example, it could target:

1. The bases at Alaska or Hawaii, and therefore prevent large concentrations of bombers or tankers being deployed
2. The naval bases at Seattle and San Diego
3. The B-2 stealth bomber base in Missouri
4. The B-1 base and F-35 plant in Texas
etc etc

If Chinese missiles can attack targets in the Continental US, then it becomes a far more serious decision for:

1. the US to go to war with China on behalf of Taiwan or
2. the US deciding to attack targets in mainland China

AndrewS said:

1. The bases at Alaska or Hawaii, and therefore prevent large concentrations of bombers or tankers being deployed
2. The naval bases at Seattle and San Diego
3. The B-2 stealth bomber base in Missouri
4. The B-1 base and F-35 plant in Texas
etc etc

If Chinese missiles can attack targets in the Continental US, then it becomes a far more serious decision for:

1. the US to go to war with China on behalf of Taiwan or
2. the US deciding to attack targets in mainland China

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I'm afraid in this scenario that threatening the invincibility of CONUS will sooner lead to nuclear exchange than risking the shocking loss of prestige. Unless PLA is prepared to fight a nuclear war strikes on the US mainland will need to be very carefully considered, since there's no way for the US to determine whether the payloads are nuclear tipped or not, no first use be damned.

Similarly, I have some belief that the US will focus their attacks on purely military targets, since they too don't want it to go nuclear and I doubt they actually have enough stand off munitions to put a dent in Chinese war production anyhow.

AndrewS said:

There will be over a hundred Chinese ships in a very small area of the Taiwan Straits.

So they can launch blind into this area and know there are targets

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If I’m the PLA commander, I would flood the area with civilian ships (with minimal or no crew). There should be fighter CAP in the area as well.

Of course, if I’m the commander, i would not have launch an amphibious assault until the American and its vassals are defeated in the West Pac.

The problem of a surprise attack is that US only has so many points to work from in Asia. China will be able to see them preparing. Instead of a preemptive attack, China could also do the less escalatory option of just flooding the areas with drones and small fighter patrols.

Lets suppose a wave of B1s and B52s take off in Japan and starts heading towards China, such a movement can be seen live by satellite over the bases as well as by AEW. China can send a handful of fighters and a whole lot of drones to intercept and fly next to the American formation.

Keep in mind, there's no war at the moment in this scenario, and both Chinese and USA planes are flying over international airspace. With Chinese assets all around them, the moment LRASMs are fired, the drones and fighters will wipe out the bomber formation, and with more than ample launch warning, there is no risk at all to assets in the ocean.

Of course, US has its own fighter air patrols, but as long as there is peace, they cannot fire on Chinese planes. If they fire on even a single drone, China can immediately hit US with everything it has in Asia.