Oh, since American missiles are ImIR guided, the civilian ships anchored in the strait should have smoke generators onboard to flood the convoy area with smoke.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
That is part of the deterrent effect.
If the US military starts striking targets in mainland China and there are Chinese submarines with ballistic missiles, it's almost guaranteed that China will respond by striking military targets in the Continental US.
So as long as China's nuclear deterrent is large enough for MAD, then this helps deter the US from striking targets in mainland China.
---
On the topic of deterrence, one of the things that has recently occurred is non-Western central banks putting together an alternative to the USD payment network using CBDCs and swap lines, as per Bloomberg and Credit Suisse, amongst others. This really picked up momentum since Ukraine and then the Pelosi visit which scared a lot of countries.
Basically the day that the US sanctions China is the day that the US Dollar dies as the global reserve currency, which will impose huge costs on the US. But this doesn't appear to have been discussed much outside of financial or government spheres.
Last edited:
Theoretically the US and Japan will be able to muster in excess of 1000 missiles from a combination of bombers, naval aviation, shore based missiles like the modified Japanese Type 12s, surface fleet and subs.
In reality it'll be a lot more complex operation than that to pull off and a lot of things have to go right.
In a hypothetical "Allied" first strike, I imagine the most likely first target along with the PLA amphibious fleet will be China's carrier group(s) patrolling on the east side of Taiwan. With the J-15s and J-35s patrolling the waters of the Philippines Sea, the bombers from Guam will be impeded to get near Taiwan. So the first task of the bomber group will be to wipeout the Chinese CSG. However, they'll be releasing their weapons within combat radius of the J-15, and possibly also HHQ-9s depending on the CSG location. This means they'll need fighter support from naval aviation from CSG to fend J-15s off, so the Americans will station a CSG or more in the Philippines Sea ahead of time to coordinate with the bombers. China may have J-20 long range CAP here as well.
Then it'll morph into a duel between CSGs + bombers. PLA will rush H-6K/J/Ns and the DF-17, DF-21D and DF-26 brigades, while the Americans rush their bombers and additional subs. The Americans would likely need to sacrifice their prized CSG and some bombers but if they succeed in destroying the PLAN CSG, the way will be clearer to quickly launch a 2nd wave of bombers and subs to hit the rest of the PLAN fleet near Taiwan.....at least in theory. DF-26 will probably have crippled Guam by then. So I think the 2nd wave may have to come from B-52s from faraway bases like Pearl.
Simultaneously, while the CSG battle is going on I imagine the Americans and Japanese will try to launch as many missiles as possible from the 1IC into the vicinity of Taiwan, as these will be in a use it or lose it scenario as China unleashes a huge missile counterattack wave. Whether this will actually be able to critically cripple the PLAN amphibious operation is another story.
In reality it'll be a lot more complex operation than that to pull off and a lot of things have to go right.
In a hypothetical "Allied" first strike, I imagine the most likely first target along with the PLA amphibious fleet will be China's carrier group(s) patrolling on the east side of Taiwan. With the J-15s and J-35s patrolling the waters of the Philippines Sea, the bombers from Guam will be impeded to get near Taiwan. So the first task of the bomber group will be to wipeout the Chinese CSG. However, they'll be releasing their weapons within combat radius of the J-15, and possibly also HHQ-9s depending on the CSG location. This means they'll need fighter support from naval aviation from CSG to fend J-15s off, so the Americans will station a CSG or more in the Philippines Sea ahead of time to coordinate with the bombers. China may have J-20 long range CAP here as well.
Then it'll morph into a duel between CSGs + bombers. PLA will rush H-6K/J/Ns and the DF-17, DF-21D and DF-26 brigades, while the Americans rush their bombers and additional subs. The Americans would likely need to sacrifice their prized CSG and some bombers but if they succeed in destroying the PLAN CSG, the way will be clearer to quickly launch a 2nd wave of bombers and subs to hit the rest of the PLAN fleet near Taiwan.....at least in theory. DF-26 will probably have crippled Guam by then. So I think the 2nd wave may have to come from B-52s from faraway bases like Pearl.
Simultaneously, while the CSG battle is going on I imagine the Americans and Japanese will try to launch as many missiles as possible from the 1IC into the vicinity of Taiwan, as these will be in a use it or lose it scenario as China unleashes a huge missile counterattack wave. Whether this will actually be able to critically cripple the PLAN amphibious operation is another story.
Deploying Liaoning or Shangdong east of the Taiwan Island is not worth the risks. The CBG will not have land-based AWAC and fighter support unless they fly over the island when the ROC’s anti-air capabilities haven’t been sufficiently suppressed (if we are discussing the zerg rush scenario in the CSIS report). If PLA does deploy CBGs I think they would be deployed north and south side of the island to guard against approaches from the Ryukyu Islands and Guam, with AWAC and land-based fighters support.
I think it makes sense for PLA to find an excuse to attack the buildup before it is completed. Didn’t the US invoked the “imminent” threat excuse to invade Iraq? What is good for the goose is good for the gander.
BUT, the West won't accept it unless it's them doing the preemptive attack.
Yea striking the buildup first will be ideal. But I disagree about not deploying carriers to the east of Taiwan even in the scenario of PLA pulls off first strike.
It's more risks but in return PLA will:
1.) Deny air space to USAF bombers. USAF bombers will have a straight run from Guam to Taiwan to release their strike package if there's no carrier group on the east side of Taiwan. Even if DF-26 cripple Guam, the base is huge and we can't assume that some bombers will not be able to take off in time to counterattack. Better for the Americans to hit the carrier group with strong AAW defense capabilities, or if the bombers try to bypass they'll be interrupted by CAP.
2.) Force US carriers to keep a bigger distance in the Philippines Sea.
3.) Denying Undersea space for USN submarines to roam close to Taiwan. Another form of denying Sea space.
4.) Supporting operations on the east side of Taiwan.
5.) Support potential operation against Guam after the initial bombardment
So there's a bigger chance of losing the carrier but it will complicate operations for the Americans even more.
Conceptually since Taiwan (and its holdings such as Taiping Island) are a part of China, according to China, therefore if any party commits hostile acts against China in these places they are theoretically attacking China proper and have justified China committing hostile acts against their homeland in response, including triggering China's escalatory ladder to MAD.
Firstly, China isn't going to go trigger-happy by using nukes right away, even if US forces are invading the island itself.
In fact, for the China-US confrontation in the Pacific, the only time I could see China using nukes is when either the Chinese coastline is swarmed with US warships (i.e. PLAN and PLAAF has lost), or that mainland China proper is getting invaded by the US troops. Personally, I think the probability for the later is pretty much nil, while the former would depend on other metrics.
Not saying China would abandon "No First Use". Just that Taiwan is not a proxy/"arena" theater to China even though it may be so to others, and even if they portray the situation as the opposite.