Who made up of the members of the military? The members of the public at one point. Why do Jiang Jieshi lose the civil war with superior numbers of military force? Because he lost the confidence of the populace
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PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
Shooting down anyone's plane during peacetime is one of the worst ideas anyone could've come up with.
Not just that, we are talking about shooting down a plane carrying someone who would be taking the leadership helm of the United States of America in case the President and Vice President got incapacitated and unable to perform their duties.
There is always the diplomatic table that everyone can return to whenever situations got intensely worse. Opening fire and downing some VVVIP of your arch rival is always the last ever option that should only be explored when no other alternatives are present.
Remember that even during the absolute heights of the Cold War, neither sides dared to come up with ideas of assassinating high-ranking government officials of the opposite side, even when both sides are heavily involved in proxy wars, staredowns and standoffs right at each other's throats.
In fact, China still has tons of cards on her hands to play with, especially regarding the industry, economy, trade and finance. It is the US and her allies who are throwing away more cards than they realise.
Mexican standoff will remain as Mexican standoff as long as nobody pulls the trigger.
When the trigger is pulled, all bets on a peaceful resolution is out. The only result would be bloodbath, until either side got decimated, or both sides got exhausted/decimated.
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Game of chicken. The one who is most willing to sacrifice will come out on top. 狭路相逢勇者胜.
I wouldn’t call it assassination since Pelosi’s plane is knowingly violating Chinese airspace. The Soviets shot down quite a few American planes that enter its airspace, and the US did nothing.
I think you are really misreading the signs and the geopolitical and military realities at large, but maybe that's just me.
As I said, there's any number of escalatory theatrics China can perform to signal its resolve without killing a senior US official in spectacular public fashion. If the government determines that blood must be shed (very unlikely, to be sure), killing Tsai would be far less escalatory than killing Pelosi.
You not only think the PLA will shoot down Pelosi's plane, you're hinting that it would launch a coup against the Party if it isn't ordered to shoot Pelosi's plane. I think we've gone far enough down the garden path here.
No, it's not a game of chicken, it's a test of strength. It doesn't matter who is willing to sacrifice more, it matters who's stronger.
The Soviet Union had nuclear parity with the United States, China today doesn't meet even that basic prerequisite. And to my knowledge, the USSR didn't shoot down a plane with the head of the national legislature on it - feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.
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Hu Xijin may be blowing smoke but who knows if he is sending a message on behalf of the government:
When it was reported in April that Pelosi was going to visit Taiwan, I wrote an article advocating that the Chinese mainland should establish a no-fly zone over Taiwan, or the People's Liberation Army (PLA) warplanes should fly over the island. Today, I would like to reiterate the above advocacy.
There is a HUGE difference between shooting down military plane piloted by and carrying military personnel, versus shooting down military plane piloted by military personnel and carrying leadership-ranking government officials.
Here's the list of shotdowns that occured between the US and the USSR during the Cold War, excluding losses during wartime, civilian planes and planes lost to land-based air defenses.
Kindly tell us, at which instance, did the US and Soviet Union shot down military transport aircraft that carried high-ranking government officials of the opposing side.
Shooting down Pelosi's plane and risk almost a certain war with the US is, in my opinion, the most stupid move.
Might as well start a military reunification with Taiwan instead as the response. The risk of war with the US might even be lower than killing Pelosi.
Might as well start a military reunification with Taiwan instead as the response. The risk of war with the US might even be lower than killing Pelosi.