PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

L

Lime

Junior Member
Registered Member
Let me say something about US sanctions on China chipmaking. I'm very sure the decision is very ignorant, the former US government know scarcely about China.

I have a friend from China, he have a EE master degree and his research direction is IC design. But he came to US and want to get a CS degree because of the low IC design salary in China, about 5K CNY in 2016 before US begin the trade war. Also the IT employees can get more than 15K CNY at that time.

But now everything is change. After the US sanctions, the IC employees's salary gushes. We all know its meaning to huge quantity graduates every year in China. I used to see some hard-working Chinese students study IT from Indian NIIT, at that time the IT employees had the highest salary. Then a lot of local IT companies arised like Alibaba, ByteDance, Tencent. It was 2010. Now the tendency is moving to IC industry. I can even say China has best chip design group now, and the next step is surely the chip making.
 
S

Squidward

New Member
Registered Member
Hendrik_2000 said:
According to this guy China just send a private message to Biden team of possible military action if Pelosi went ahead with Taiwan visit

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1550851585227382784
Click to expand...
Last time China threatened military action was when the US was planning to sail a CSG though the Taiwan strait not too long ago. Clearly, it worked. The US knows China means business when the PLA gets mobilized, so I'm reasonably confident they'll find one reason or another for Pelosi not to go. Covid? Maybe. Some hastily organized event she just so happens to have to attend? Possibly. Slipped on a banana peel and dislocated her hip? Wouldn't put it past them.

But if she is crazy enough to go, we'll be able to see whether any of our 220 pages of Taiwan contingency guesswork turns out to be correct. I wonder if the PLA would stop at just intercepting her plane and declaring a no fly zone, or will they take the opportunity and go straight for armed reunification?

I would prefer if she delayed her trip by maybe a month or two though, I'm flying to China soon and I would rather not risk my flight getting cancelled because of an active war zone.
 
vincent

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Squidward said:
I would prefer if she delayed her trip by maybe a month or two though, I'm flying to China soon and I would rather not risk my flight getting cancelled because of an active war zone.
Click to expand...
I read somewhere most of the underground parkings in major cities double as bomb shelters. I advise you to look for one closest to you after you settle down.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Squidward said:
Last time China threatened military action was when the US was planning to sail a CSG though the Taiwan strait not too long ago. Clearly, it worked. The US knows China means business when the PLA gets mobilized, so I'm reasonably confident they'll find one reason or another for Pelosi not to go. Covid? Maybe. Some hastily organized event she just so happens to have to attend? Possibly. Slipped on a banana peel and dislocated her hip? Wouldn't put it past them.

But if she is crazy enough to go, we'll be able to see whether any of our 220 pages of Taiwan contingency guesswork turns out to be correct. I wonder if the PLA would stop at just intercepting her plane and declaring a no fly zone, or will they take the opportunity and go straight for armed reunification?

I would prefer if she delayed her trip by maybe a month or two though, I'm flying to China soon and I would rather not risk my flight getting cancelled because of an active war zone.
Click to expand...
this is a political issue, so the politics have to be carefully calibrated for proportionality and maximum effect at lowest cost. armed liberation of Taiwan is neither proportional nor lowest cost.

a few examples of what to do in order of escalation:

1. lighting her plane up with radar from ships or planes
2. intercept Pelosi's plane outside Taiwanese air space
3. armed flyover of Taiwan
 
vincent

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
FairAndUnbiased said:
this is a political issue, so the politics have to be carefully calibrated for proportionality and maximum effect at lowest cost. armed liberation of Taiwan is neither proportional nor lowest cost.

a few examples of what to do in order of escalation:

1. lighting her plane up with radar from ships or planes
2. intercept Pelosi's plane outside Taiwanese air space
3. armed flyover of Taiwan
Click to expand...
PLAAF planes must prevent her plane from entering Chinese airspace.
 
vincent

vincent

Grumpy Old Man
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Blitzo said:
I have a feeling it will not be that severe -- when Newt Gingrich, speaker of the house in in 1997 went to Taiwan, it didn't lead to outright use of military force

But I do expect a relatively large scale PLA response.
Click to expand...
China didn’t react strongly in 1997 because her military simply suck. Back then I remember American military called PLA the world’s biggest military museum. Today her military does have the capability to contest the space in the West Pac and based on the high profile publicity in China I expect something very different will happen this time.
 
Blitzo

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
vincent said:
China didn’t react strongly in 1997 because her military simply suck. Back then I remember American military called PLA the world’s biggest military museum. Today her military does have the capability to contest the space in the West Pac and based on the high profile publicity in China I expect something very different will happen this time.
Click to expand...

I do expect a much stronger PLA response than in 1997 -- but I'm saying that if you're expecting the PLA to actually shoot down the plane carrying Pelosi to Taiwan.... well I personally think that is very unlikely to happen.
Everything short of that though, sure.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top