PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

zhangjim said:

The Kee-Lung class may be a majestic warship, but I will not be proud of it as a mainlander. These warships were not built by the Chinese at all. They are just outdated garbage sold by the United States. The customer had to accept the extortion of the United States, the only weapons supplier.
After the advent of 052C in the same year, this old ship was not worth mentioning.

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A case of perfect hindsight.

The sale of the Kidd class was announced in 2001. At the time, it was basically the most advanced non-Aegis vessel available. Aegis was not widely exported and basically only Kongo-class was operationally deployed outside American service.

The most advanced contemporary PLAN ship was still Sovremenny class which was also imported.

At the time, most military forums were quite fearful that the technological gap between ROC and PRC had grown once again, and pushing for more arms purchases from Russia. They would somewhat be vindicated with the launch of 052B.

The 052C was a total surprise as the indigenous systems jumped from short range HQ-7 to Aegis class system in less than a decade. It really took everyone off guard. No one expected to see such a ship by the time Kidd was delivered. It was actually pretty much the turning point to which ROCN would never be able to match PLAN again. However, we can only safely say this now.

5unrise said:

These are excellent works of art reflecting great talent on the part of the person making them. I have to say that they triggered strong but quite mixed emotions in me, and this shouldn't come as a surprise. Good artwork triggers strong emotions.
I grew up in Kaoshiong and my father served in the RoC Navy as a military doctor. On the way to school, I often saw the Kee-Lung class (Kidd class) destroyers parked in the naval base he worked at - the ones being destroyed in the second painting. They were inspiring, majestic vessels to a young boy. I was often reminded by adults how they carried the power of the Chinese Navy - I am not that old, but this was before the whole independence fad truly got off the ground. If they do get sent to the bottom in the process of a forceful unification, it would be a shame and a total waste. The deaths of people who serve on board - as depicted in the art - would be tragic and completely meaningless.
The storming of the presidential palace in the fourth piece simply feels like defeat, despite my opinion that those current residing in there are not good people. Human beings are inherently tribal and are attached to their place of birth, at least to some extent. That picture just says we are basically defeated and subjugated, placed at the mercy of a stronger power. I am fairly well-read in WW2, and the picture looks to me like the final assualt on the Reichstag, while the PLA forces are the Red Army. Is there no way to achieve unification without losing this level of dignity?
As for the last picture, I feel totally rejoiced. Justice is finally being served - they reap when they sow. They are lucky to be on an aircraft carrier, because the anrgy mobs that will wait for them at the wharf won't be as disciplined as the soldiers on board.

Anyway, thanks for reading my rant

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One cannot discount the power of US regime change operations. Truly they are masters.

When the Japanese coast guard killed the HK guy protesting around Diaoyu islands, HK/PRC/ROC were all united in protesting “Japanese aggression”.

A generation later and now people in Taiwan think Japan are their friends and ready to die for their independence? HK black riots for a whole year?

Someone on this forum said this is people waking up to the “truth” about PRC and Xi Jinping. I said this is a joke, you are telling me that people think 90’s PRC is better than today? How can they “wake up” and assert independence when the balance was actually in their favour in the past?

The reality is that this is the product of a concerted effort in the last 20 years.

supersnoop said:

A case of perfect hindsight.

The sale of the Kidd class was announced in 2001. At the time, it was basically the most advanced non-Aegis vessel available. Aegis was not widely exported and basically only Kongo-class was operationally deployed outside American service.

The most advanced contemporary PLAN ship was still Sovremenny class which was also imported.

At the time, most military forums were quite fearful that the technological gap between ROC and PRC had grown once again, and pushing for more arms purchases from Russia. They would somewhat be vindicated with the launch of 052B.

The 052C was a total surprise as the indigenous systems jumped from short range HQ-7 to Aegis class system in less than a decade. It really took everyone off guard. No one expected to see such a ship by the time Kidd was delivered. It was actually pretty much the turning point to which ROCN would never be able to match PLAN again. However, we can only safely say this now.

Click to expand...

I pay more attention to the significance of technological development.A little arms sales can hardly offset the value of technological development.
052C successfully inspired the later 052D，it has high value in national defense and technology.

But the Kee Lung class is completely different.Up to now, Taiwan cannot build warships of the same type,the lack of technological updates means that it will quickly become obsolete in the environment of the rapid popularization of Aegis.

Warships have a long life, but they often have to face the rapid development of technology.054 soon evolved into 054A.Even 051B and 052B can improve their combat effectiveness after technical upgrading.

The side that heavily relies on foreign arms sales has fallen into a clear disadvantage：Such like Kang Ding class is not a qualified corvette so far,the French provide unarmed ships that can be modified according to actual needs, but we can see poor weapon systems, and there has been no satisfactory improvement in nearly 30 years.
Therefore, the more complex Kee Lung class will be more difficult for Taiwanese to refit.

PLA weapons procurement has some "emergency plans" for military operations, but having a military industry allows you to think more about the future.Their opponents can only beg their masters for some costly and limited assistance.

Looking back at history, you will find that the military advantage provided by U.S. arms sales has only lasted for a few years.And if Americans do not provide assistance, these military assets will quickly dry up in the conflict.

zhangjim said:

I pay more attention to the significance of technological development.A little arms sales can hardly offset the value of technological development.
052C successfully inspired the later 052D，it has high value in national defense and technology.

But the Kee Lung class is completely different.Up to now, Taiwan cannot build warships of the same type,the lack of technological updates means that it will quickly become obsolete in the environment of the rapid popularization of Aegis.

Warships have a long life, but they often have to face the rapid development of technology.054 soon evolved into 054A.Even 051B and 052B can improve their combat effectiveness after technical upgrading.

The side that heavily relies on foreign arms sales has fallen into a clear disadvantage：Such like Kang Ding class is not a qualified corvette so far,the French provide unarmed ships that can be modified according to actual needs, but we can see poor weapon systems, and there has been no satisfactory improvement in nearly 30 years.
Therefore, the more complex Kee Lung class will be more difficult for Taiwanese to refit.

PLA weapons procurement has some "emergency plans" for military operations, but having a military industry allows you to think more about the future.Their opponents can only beg their masters for some costly and limited assistance.

Looking back at history, you will find that the military advantage provided by U.S. arms sales has only lasted for a few years.And if Americans do not provide assistance, these military assets will quickly dry up in the conflict.

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If by “a few years” you mean decades, then everything I agree with.

I simply did not think the characterization as Kee Lung/Kidd being “outdated garbage” was correct given what was known at the time and the actual capabilities of the ship even now.

I forgot to mention that 052C was also catching everyone off guard because it was absolutely without a doubt 100% domestically developed. The “Chinese copying crew” was left silently shrugging as Russia had no such system (non-functioning Mars-Passat doesn’t count), and the usual “Chinese hacking” couldn’t be applied as the system clearly did not resemble Aegis/SPY-1 at all.

A place as small as Taiwan would never be able to support a defence industry as robust as mainland China. Whole ships in the class of DDG are definitely out of the question. However, Chiang Ching-Kuo tried his best to push the island to support itself.

It cannot be overlooked that basically all the domestic systems in use in Taiwan today are projects started under him. IDF, HF-series AShM, TK-series SAM, SD-series AAM and derivatives.

It was his successor LDH that decided to pursue the policy of American flattery/bribery. By splashing big bucks on shiny toys to appease Washington and MIC both politically and financially. He believed that if these big flashy toys were to be destroyed in a communist onslaught, then the Americans would be shamed to act.

Tsai Ing-wen claims to have invested a lot into new developments, but it remains to be seen if they will be fruitful.

supersnoop said:

It cannot be overlooked that basically all the domestic systems in use in Taiwan today are projects started under him. IDF, HF-series AShM, TK-series SAM, SD-series AAM and derivatives.

It was his successor LDH that decided to pursue the policy of American flattery/bribery. By splashing big bucks on shiny toys to appease Washington and MIC both politically and financially. He believed that if these big flashy toys were to be destroyed in a communist onslaught, then the Americans would be shamed to act.

Tsai Ing-wen claims to have invested a lot into new developments, but it remains to be seen if they will be fruitful.

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There is no scientific research achievement in the world that can be divorced from material conditions,I don't think we should exaggerate the role of political leaders in this regard.Taiwan island seriously lacks natural resources and technical personnel to support military technology research and development.
The Taiwan regime used to have some favorable external environment to help themBut it is obvious that Taiwanese people have been difficult to "hitchhike" as they used to.

The cost of developing fighter jets and missiles is rising.At the beginning of the cold war, even countries like China and Argentina could develop jets,but now only a few countries can afford to invest in stealth fighters.Those achievements in the past are meaningful only in the past, because technology is constantly evolving.

Take their proud IDF and HF-1/2/3 for example,you can see that these achievements rely heavily on Western technical support,many necessary jobs are done by foreigners for them,this means that their military technology is easily controlled by foreign countries.

Spending a huge amount of money may produce oneortwo kinds of fighter planes, warships or missiles, but Taiwan's defense needs money everywhere.
I'm not optimistic about Taiwan's tactical missile factory plan.Especially in the first half of the year, a news that they purchased missile parts from Taobao has just been exposed.In addition there is their investment in minesweeper production that has gone unrecovered.It is doubtful what the outcome of this grand plan will be.

5unrise said:

These are excellent works of art reflecting great talent on the part of the person making them. I have to say that they triggered strong but quite mixed emotions in me, and this shouldn't come as a surprise. Good artwork triggers strong emotions.
I grew up in Kaoshiong and my father served in the RoC Navy as a military doctor. On the way to school, I often saw the Kee-Lung class (Kidd class) destroyers parked in the naval base he worked at - the ones being destroyed in the second painting. They were inspiring, majestic vessels to a young boy. I was often reminded by adults how they carried the power of the Chinese Navy - I am not that old, but this was before the whole independence fad truly got off the ground. If they do get sent to the bottom in the process of a forceful unification, it would be a shame and a total waste. The deaths of people who serve on board - as depicted in the art - would be tragic and completely meaningless.
The storming of the presidential palace in the fourth piece simply feels like defeat, despite my opinion that those current residing in there are not good people. Human beings are inherently tribal and are attached to their place of birth, at least to some extent. That picture just says we are basically defeated and subjugated, placed at the mercy of a stronger power. I am fairly well-read in WW2, and the picture looks to me like the final assualt on the Reichstag, while the PLA forces are the Red Army. Is there no way to achieve unification without losing this level of dignity?
As for the last picture, I feel totally rejoiced. Justice is finally being served - they reap when they sow. They are lucky to be on an aircraft carrier, because the anrgy mobs that will wait for them at the wharf won't be as disciplined as the soldiers on board.

Anyway, thanks for reading my rant

Click to expand...

Thanks for sharing your story. Similar to Ukraine, Japan and other places, Taiwan is tightly controlled by the U.S. I listened to Jacob Dreizin talked about how the U.S. went to Ukraine in 2014 and used our money and the CIA. Generals were paid to turn against a democratically elected government. Individuals that were not in the pockets of CIA were threatened and left Ukraine under duress. This looked very similar to how Hong Kong political movements were stirred up. In fact, the Ukrainians were in Hong Kong assisting with their street riots. I have no doubt that the U.S. were deeply involved in Taiwanese government and pushing for the whole independence movement and changing the Taiwanese identities to not recognizing themselves as Chinese.

I hope Taiwan will not be invaded militarily. However, Taiwanese no longer has any agency on this. There are two scenarios where I think Taiwan can re-unite with China in a non-military way.

1. The U.S., in a deep crisis, decided to trade Taiwan back to China for some immediate relief.
2. The Chinese military power has grown to such a point that Taiwan is no longer needed for the Chinese to assert their regional dominance. If this couple with the Chinese gained access to ports in the Philippines, Indonesia etc., we may reach a point where the U.S. decides to leave East Asia. In that case, Japan, along with Taiwan, will have no choice but to return to the fold of China.

In the medium term, strictly from a strategic point of view, it is actually beneficial for China to leave Taiwan as is and use Taiwan to force the U.S. into a military arms race that we are destined to lose. The rationale goes like this. If we lose Taiwan outright, we would retreat to North America and focus more on our own nation building. However, if Taiwan is under threat from China, the U.S. risk losing East Asia, but has not yet lost it. This would locked the U.S. into an arms race against a country that may have 2x the gdp as the U.S. someday and an industrial sector that is multiple times the size of the U.S.

reservior dogs said:

I hope Taiwan will not be invaded militarily. However, Taiwanese no longer has any agency on this. There are two scenarios where I think Taiwan can re-unite with China in a non-military way.

1. The U.S., in a deep crisis, decided to trade Taiwan back to China for some immediate relief.

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If I were the president of the United States, it would be hard for me to give up this perfect "customer".Americans can blackmail Taiwan Island and Chinese Mainland at the same time.Taiwanese provide a lot of funds to American political lobbying groups every year, too many people have reasons not to give up.

2. The Chinese military power has grown to such a point that Taiwan is no longer needed for the Chinese to assert their regional dominance. If this couple with the Chinese gained access to ports in the Philippines, Indonesia etc., we may reach a point where the U.S. decides to leave East Asia. In that case, Japan, along with Taiwan, will have no choice but to return to the fold of China.

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On this point, things are not that simple.As I said earlier, the Taiwan regime can do things that Americans cannot do in intelligence collection,because the cultural atmosphere is highly similar and there is no language barrier, Taiwanese people can better complete intelligence collection, bribery and public opinion incitement than ABC.
China's nuclear submarines have been closely monitored during navigation, and many intelligence has been provided to the United States and Japan by Taiwanese.
Considering Tsai ing Wen's involvement in the Hong Kong riots, Taiwan is undoubtedly the biggest hidden danger to China's national security,some naive dissidents in China try to use this former regime as their spiritual totem.

Before the covid-19 crisis broke out, some people believed that the United States would take the initiative to provoke conflicts by taking advantage of the current advantages of Navy, air force and tactical nuclear weapons（assuming that China dare not escalate into a full-scale nuclear war because of the small number of nuclear weapons) in order to save the decline.
At that time, the situation in the Taiwan Strait was deteriorating,Taiwan independence elements urgently hope that Trump will launch a "war of punishment" against China.
Trump gave the impression of being aggressive at that time, and the attack on Soleimani made people believe that he did things recklessly.No one would have thought that the Capitol Hill incident and the "Bunker boy" incident exposed his timid true face.
Up to now, you can see that the intervention plans for Taiwan discussed by all sectors of the United States are very radical,launching a surprise attack on China's landing fleet has always been an option discussed,even if it means a large-scale war.

So——

This would locked the U.S. into an arms race against a country that may have 2x the gdp as the U.S. someday and an industrial sector that is multiple times the size of the U.S.

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I don't see the possibility of America stopping.They are too obsessed with "absolute advantage".Their dominant position in the past has made them lose the possibility of compromise and concession, unless they encounter a humiliating failure like Afghanistan.

zhangjim said:

If I were the president of the United States, it would be hard for me to give up this perfect "customer".Americans can blackmail Taiwan Island and Chinese Mainland at the same time.Taiwanese provide a lot of funds to American political lobbying groups every year, too many people have reasons not to give up.

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If the U.S. is desperate enough and if China has what the U.S. wanted, Taiwan will be traded. It is obviously not for just money since the U.S. can print as much money as we need, but crisis happens.

zhangjim said:

Considering Tsai ing Wen's involvement in the Hong Kong riots, Taiwan is undoubtedly the biggest hidden danger to China's national security,some naive dissidents in China try to use this former regime as their spiritual totem.

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Obviously, the Taiwanese is much better at penetrating China than the U.S., but it also works the other way around. I am pretty sure Taiwan is also penetrated on many levels. In spite of the information provided by the Taiwanese, the U.S. have shown a complete lack of understanding how the Chinese works. Just look at the China team from Trump and the stuff they come up with.

zhangjim said:

I don't see the possibility of America stopping.They are too obsessed with "absolute advantage".Their dominant position in the past has made them lose the possibility of compromise and concession, unless they encounter a humiliating failure like Afghanistan.

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When an up and comer passes the top dog, it is done over many years, sometimes decades. The top dog will pull out all the stops to prevent being passed. Eventually though, the throne does change hands.

reservior dogs said:

. In spite of the information provided by the Taiwanese, the U.S. have shown a complete lack of understanding how the Chinese works. Just look at the China team from Trump and the stuff they come up with.

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Case in point is the semiconductor sanctions driven by Pottinger, who was supposed to be a China expert in the Trump Administration.
I recall him cheering when stocks such as SMIC fell on semiconductor curbs and that investors in Chinese companies deserved to lose money.

But even then, the Chinese response was entirely predictable given that:
1. China had a larger and faster growing economy than the USA, along
2. Costs are significantly lower in China than the US, plus China has a much larger STEM talent pool
3. the NSF was already reporting to Congress that China was spending more than the USA on technology R&D
4. over 50% of all semiconductors in the world passed through China in one way or another

So sanctions would mean China replacing all US semiconductor content, given some time
I'm sure that TSMC told the Taiwanese government and the US government the same thing, but it didn't make a difference.

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And now we have Bloomberg articles which are just catching up to this reality, with investors in Chinese semiconductor stocks winning big.

US Sanctions Help China Supercharge Its Chipmaking Industry - 20 June 2022
Chinese Chipmakers Surge After US Pushes for More Industry Curbs -6 July 2022

Sources



Anyway, back on topic.

zhangjim said:

Up to now, you can see that the intervention plans for Taiwan discussed by all sectors of the United States are very radical,launching a surprise attack on China's landing fleet has always been an option discussed,even if it means a large-scale war.

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No, that's just delusional nonsense. If China has a landing fleet assembled, then it will be on high alert. There's no surprise attack happening.