PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Blitzo said:

I do expect a much stronger PLA response than in 1997 -- but I'm saying that if you're expecting the PLA to actually shoot down the plane carrying Pelosi to Taiwan.... well I personally think that is very unlikely to happen.
Everything short of that though, sure.

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Well, will the civilian airline pilot risk disobeying an order to turn around by a fully armed PLAAF fighter jet? If the pilot is moronic enough to ignore the warning, a few tracer rounds along the flight path should convince him/her.
American military is unlikely to provide a military plane for Pelosi to ride on. Even if it does, a military cargo plane will probably not gonna risk it.

I hope she does not visit, and I hope China does not shoot down her plane if she does. Honestly, it will be best for everyone involved if she just died of natural causes on the way.

vincent said:

Well, will the civilian airline pilot risk disobeying an order to turn around by a fully armed PLAAF fighter jet? If the pilot is moronic enough to ignore the warning, a few tracer rounds along the flight path should convince him/her.
American military is unlikely to provide a military plane for Pelosi to ride on. Even if it does, a military cargo plane will probably not gonna risk it.

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The PLA can warn them all they like and fire warning shots, sure.

But if they disobey the order -- or alternatively, if the civilian airline aircraft (likely to be govt chartered aircraft) is escorted by some US fighter aircraft on the way into Taiwan's de facto airspace -- would the PLA still actually shoot down the aircraft?


It's a fairly simple yes no question of "will the PLA actually shoot it down".
Personally I think the answer is no.

Blitzo said:

The PLA can warn them all they like and fire warning shots, sure.

But if they disobey the order -- or alternatively, if the civilian airline aircraft (likely to be govt chartered aircraft) is escorted by some US fighter aircraft on the way into Taiwan's de facto airspace -- would the PLA still actually shoot down the aircraft?


It's a fairly simple yes no question of "will the PLA actually shoot it down".
Personally I think the answer is no.

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Why send fighter jets to intercept the plane if the Chinese government is not willing to go all the way? The PRC government does have a valid excuse to shoot down the plane: it is entering Chinese sovereign airspace without permission. That is an act of war.

vincent said:

Why send fighter jets to intercept the plane if the Chinese government is not willing to go all the way? The PRC government does have a valid excuse to shoot down the plane: it is entering Chinese sovereign airspace without permission. That is an act of war.

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So to clarify, you are predicting that if push comes to shove, the PLA will be willing to actually shoot down the plane carrying Pelosi?

Blitzo said:

So to clarify, you are predicting that if push comes to shove, the PLA will be willing to actually shoot down the plane carrying Pelosi?

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I believe the Chinese government is willing to go all the way because the government’s credibility depends on it, since it raised the profile of the visit to pretty high level.

vincent said:

Why send fighter jets to intercept the plane if the Chinese government is not willing to go all the way? The PRC government does have a valid excuse to shoot down the plane: it is entering Chinese sovereign airspace without permission. That is an act of war.

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Not that I wouldn't love to see Nancy Pelosi incinerated in a plummeting fireball, is China prepared to go to total war with the US today and win? That's the question you should ask yourself and the only question worth asking. If the answer to that question is yes, then specific casus belli don't matter, China can choose whatever pretext suits it. If the answer is no, then China is not going to provoke a war prematurely.

The only thing that matters is that China keep building the force needed to annihilate whatever presence the US maintains in its sphere. If Pelosi visits there are any number of suitable theatrics China can perform to get its point across.

vincent said:

I believe the Chinese government is willing to go all the way, the government’s credibility depends on it, since it raised the profile of the visit to pretty high level.

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No, it doesn't. This is what the legitimacy of the Chinese government rests on:

Legitimacy does not rest on the public emotions.

vincent said:

I believe the Chinese government is willing to go all the way because the government’s credibility depends on it, since it raised the profile of the visit to pretty high level.

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I'm going to interpret that as "yes I believe the PLA will be ordered to shoot down Pelosi's plane if push comes to shove".

In which case okay, but then you are also saying you are expecting the PLA to be willing to go to war on a large scale because the US will likely militarily respond to such a shoot down.

Blitzo said:

I'm going to interpret that as "yes I believe the PLA will be ordered to shoot down Pelosi's plane if push comes to shove".

In which case okay, but then you are also saying you are expecting the PLA to be willing to go to war on a large scale because the US will likely militarily respond to such a shoot down.

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It is a Mexican standoff unfortunately

vincent said:

It is a Mexican standoff unfortunately

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It's a bit more than that.

By saying you think the PLA will shoot down Pelosi's plane if push comes to shove, it means you believe the PLA will also be extension be preparing for large scale high intensity conflict with the US, including the natural unknown endpoints (up to and including nuclear exchange).