PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

ACuriousPLAFan · Jul 24, 2022

vincent said:
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Hu Xijin may be blowing smoke but who knows if he is sending a message on behalf of the government:

When it was reported in April that Pelosi was going to visit Taiwan, I wrote an article advocating that the Chinese mainland should establish a no-fly zone over Taiwan, or the People's Liberation Army (PLA) warplanes should fly over the island. Today, I would like to reiterate the above advocacy.

Hu did not outright advocate for shooting down Pelosi's plane.

One important distinction to note: Shooting down Pelosi's plane within any no-fly zone set up AND controlled by the PLA, versus shooting down Pelosi's plane outside of any no-fly zone set up AND controlled by the PLA, are two very different nature of scenarios.

Moreover, despite Hu's status and position in Global Times, he is, by no means, a government official in any official capacity.

Hu's word is not law. He can say whatever the f*ck he wants, as long as his word does not cause trouble for Beijing.

getready · Jul 24, 2022

Blitzo said:
I have a feeling it will not be that severe -- when Newt Gingrich, speaker of the house in in 1997 went to Taiwan, it didn't lead to outright use of military force

But I do expect a relatively large scale PLA response.

It had been explained by Chinese side that the previous visit was "tolerated" due to the fact he was from Republican party and the president was democrat. Hence Gingrich was from the opposition party and not representative of the US ruling government.

A Pelosi visit would be different obviously.

vincent · Jul 24, 2022

ACuriousPLAFan said:
Hu did not outright advocate for shooting down Pelosi's plane.

One important distinction to note: Shooting down Pelosi's plane within any no-fly zone set up AND controlled by the PLA, versus shooting down Pelosi's plane outside of any no-fly zone set up AND controlled by the PLA, are two very different nature of scenarios.

Moreover, despite Hu's status and position in Global Times, he is, by no means, a government official.

Hu's word is not law. He can say whatever the f*ck he wants, as long as his word does not cause trouble for Beijing.

What does a no-fly zone over Taiwan island encompass? Will it include all of Taiwan island’ airspace? If Pelosi’s plane enters the no-fly zone despite warnings and allow to proceed, that kinda defeat the purpose of the no-fly zone, doesn’t it?

like I said, his article could just be his opinion but it could also be a message from the government.

supersnoop · Jul 24, 2022

Could PLAN send its own CVSG this time to the western coast of Taiwan if there is any sense a visit is imminent within a week?

Could they say there will be a live fire ex of airborne targets?

OppositeDay · Jul 24, 2022

Blitzo said:
I have a feeling it will not be that severe -- when Newt Gingrich, speaker of the house in in 1997 went to Taiwan, it didn't lead to outright use of military force

But I do expect a relatively large scale PLA response.

As Hu Xijin correctly observed, Gingrich's party wasn't in the White House in 1997. This time the visit couldn't be explained away as US political infighting.

Obviously China will not shoot down a jet carrying the no.3 politician in the US order of precedence. That's madness. A PLAAF flyover is the most serious reaction I expect. Send some Su-35s and Su-30s over Taiwan and a much bigger fleet of J-16s, Y-20Us, H-6Ks and KJ-500s around Taiwan.

Short of a fly over, my preferred reaction is a large military exercise off Fujian coast with full PBSC attendance. Xi could then announce a plan to increase defense budget to the international norm, which according to SIPRI is around 2.2%. I'm normally pessimistic about the prospects of large increases in China's military budget, as China's powerful Infrastructure-Industrial Complex will prevent funds from being diverted to military, but maybe this time Americans can finally jolt the Chinese system into action.

Blitzo · Jul 24, 2022

OppositeDay said:
As Hu Xijin correctly observed, Gingrich's party wasn't in the White House in 1997. This time the visit couldn't be explained away as US political infighting.

Obviously China will not shoot down a jet carrying the No.3 politician in the US order of precedence. That's madness. A PLAAF flyover is the most serious reaction I expect. Send some Su-35s and Su-30s over Taiwan and a much bigger fleet of J-16s, Y-20Us, H-6Ks and KJ-500s around Taiwan.

Short of a fly over, my preferred reaction is a large military exercise off Fujian coast with full PBSC attendance. Xi could then announce a plan to increase defense budget to the international norm, which according to SIPRI is around 2.2%. I'm normally pessimistic about the prospects of large increases in China's military budget, as China's powerful Infrastructure-Industrial Complex will prevent funds from being diverted to military, but maybe this time Americans can finally jolt the Chinese system into action.

As I said, I expect a relatively large scale PLA response.
There's a lot they can work with if they have the organisation for it.

But I wanted to make clear over the last few pages that I don't think the PLA will move to shoot down Pelosi's plane.

ACuriousPLAFan · Jul 24, 2022

vincent said:
What does a no-fly zone over Taiwan island encompass? Will it include all of Taiwan island’ airspace? If Pelosi’s plane enters the no-fly zone despite warnings and allow to proceed, that kinda defeat the purpose of the no-fly zone, doesn’t it?

like I said, his article could just be his opinion but it could also be a message from the government.

Based on what we have heard from the Pentagon, they certainly aren't dumb enough to risk the safety of their 3rd-In-Command in the face of an adamant China and her PLA.

Therefore, if the PLA sets up a no-fly-zone over Taiwan, just forget about Pelosi's visit.

Yommie · Jul 24, 2022

China can respond to Nancy Pelosi's Taiwan's visit by supply thousands of HJ-12 missiles to Russia to attack America's lapdog Ukraine. This will teach America a lesson not to send a high ranking government official to Taiwan. This will let Americans know Taiwan is red line for China.

Overbom · Jul 24, 2022

Blitzo said:
I have a feeling it will not be that severe -- when Newt Gingrich, speaker of the house in in 1997 went to Taiwan, it didn't lead to outright use of military force

Point #1
Then, the speaker wasn't with the same party as the president. Now, we can reasonably say that this visit is supported by the government if we also take into account Biden "misspeaking" about defending Taiwan so many times in the recent months.

Point #2
Then, the relations between US China and were far better than now. Today, we can reasonably say that the US wishes for China's destruction. So, different strategic environment

Point #3 (and probably the most important):
Then, the PLA was weak, and everyone knew that China couldn't afford to cross the US. Today it is different.

China isn't an ideologue, but a pragmatic power. That it didn't responded as appropriately in 1997 was more due to it knew that it didn't have the capability to damage the US. However, today things are very different. I won't say that a war will happen as a result, but I can definitely say that the response will be a very strong military action.

Blitzo · Jul 24, 2022

Overbom said:
Point #1
Then, the speaker wasn't with the same party as the president. Now, we can reasonably say that this visit is supported by the government if we also take into account Biden "misspeaking" about defending Taiwan so many times in the recent months.

Point #2
Then, the relations between US China and were far better than now. Today, we can reasonably say that the US wishes for China's destruction. So, different strategic environment

Point #3 (and probably the most important):
Then, the PLA was weak, and everyone knew that China couldn't afford to cross the US. Today it is different.

China isn't an ideologue, but a pragmatic power. That it didn't responded as appropriately in 1997 was more due to it knew that it didn't have the capability to damage the US. However, today things are very different. I won't say that a war will happen as a result, but I can definitely say that the response will be a very strong military action.

I maintain my point in that post, which was to say that I don't think the PLA will use miliyary force to shoot down Pelosi's plane to prevent them from entering Taiwan.

In that post I did also say that I expect a relatively large scale PLA response.

But I don't think they will shoot down her plane, which I've repeated multiple times now.

PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

ACuriousPLAFan

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getready

Senior Member

vincent

Grumpy Old Man

supersnoop

Major

OppositeDay

Senior Member

Blitzo

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ACuriousPLAFan

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Yommie

Junior Member

Overbom

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Blitzo

Lieutenant General