PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

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Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
Blitzo said:
I maintain my point in that post, which was to say that I don't think the PLA will use miliyary force to shoot down Pelosi's plane to prevent them from entering Taiwan.

In that post I did also say that I expect a relatively large scale PLA response.


But I don't think they will shoot down her plane, which I've repeated multiple times now.
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Seeing that you didn't refute my points I assume you agreed with them.
For the record, I also agree that China won't (and shouldn't) shoot down Pelosi's plane.

However, a large scale military response which will be thereafter normalised is a certainty imo
 
M

Minm

Junior Member
Registered Member
Pelosi's visit is pointless symbolism. Taiwan independence doesn't become any more likely because of it. So we should hope that she does actually visit and gives China an excuse to increase PLA activity threatening and provoking Taiwan. If China wants the regional countries to be neutral or on its side during a Taiwan liberation operation, then Taiwan has to be the aggressor. Trick or provoke them into firing the first shot.
 
Blitzo

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Overbom said:
Seeing that you didn't refute my points I assume you agreed with them.
For the record, I also agree that China won't (and shouldn't) shoot down Pelosi's plane.

However, a large scale military response which will be thereafter normalised is a certainty imo
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There's nothing to refute, because my argument was never to suggest that the Chinese response to Pelosi's visit would be the exact same as their response Gingrich's visit, nor was my argument that the two visits were held under the exact circumstances.

Rather, my overall point was just to point out that the PLA will not go to the extremes of shooting down Pelosi's plane.
 
Yommie

Yommie

Junior Member
Registered Member
Of course, China has many options to prevent Nancy Pelosi from visiting Taiwan. One option is signing official mutual defense treaty with Russia. Another option is supplying drones and missiles to Russia. Either option will prevent Nancy Pelosi from visiting Taiwan. China has the cards to play. America does not have any card to play other than order Taiwan to secede from China.
 
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Blitzo

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
Yommie said:
Of course, China has many options to prevent Nancy Pelosi from visiting Taiwan. One option is signing official mutual defense treaty with Russia. Another option is supplying drones and missiles to Russia. Either option will prevent Nancy Pelosi from visiting Taiwan. China has the cards to play. America does not have any card to play other than order Taiwan to secede from China.
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I deleted some of your duplicate posts and also a post that you wrote an actively racial, non constructive content in.

The next time you do so, there will be a formal warning.
 
FairAndUnbiased

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Blitzo said:
As I said, I expect a relatively large scale PLA response.
There's a lot they can work with if they have the organisation for it.



But I wanted to make clear over the last few pages that I don't think the PLA will move to shoot down Pelosi's plane.
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what about forcing the plane out of the way in another way?

1. dropping flares in their path
2. jamming their comm and navigation systems while Taiwan is still far beyond visual range with AWACs
3. flying very close with interceptors to constrain their movements

and if they still don't move, there is still a parallel escalation card to play in addition to things around Taiwan:

recognizing Luhansk and Donetsk with a state visit by Wang Yi to Donbass. They should know that if NATO supports separatism in China, China can support separatism in and around NATO.
 
Blitzo

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
FairAndUnbiased said:
what about forcing the plane out of the way in another way?

1. dropping flares in their path
2. jamming their comm and navigation systems while Taiwan is still far beyond visual range with AWACs
3. flying very close with interceptors to constrain their movements

and if they still don't move, there is still a parallel escalation card to play in addition to things around Taiwan:

recognizing Luhansk and Donetsk with a state visit by Wang Yi to Donbass. They should know that if NATO supports separatism in China, China can support separatism in and around NATO.
Click to expand...

There are so many options available, short of literally shooting down Pelosi's plane, that frankly I think our speculation of options could go on forever, and I'm not going to indulge it myself.

But yes, China and the PLA has options.
 
escobar

escobar

Brigadier
FairAndUnbiased said:
what about forcing the plane out of the way in another way?

1. dropping flares in their path
2. jamming their comm and navigation systems while Taiwan is still far beyond visual range with AWACs
3. flying very close with interceptors to constrain their movements

and if they still don't move, there is still a parallel escalation card to play in addition to things around Taiwan:

recognizing Luhansk and Donetsk with a state visit by Wang Yi to Donbass. They should know that if NATO supports separatism in China, China can support separatism in and around NATO.
Click to expand...
US sending carrier for CAP
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1551105911414210560
 
A

ashnole

New Member
Registered Member
Well China can start with executing captured agents (which big geopolitical players usually keep safe for future prisoner exchange opportunities) of America's three-lettered foreign intelligence agency the evening before Pelosi even steps foot on that plane of hers.
 
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