I didn't bother watching the whole shit show it fashioned itself as serious "analysis." The whole thing was being sold to me like "War Copium Game"
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
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Sorry, it seems that some unwelcome content has been provided.
The reason why I share this cartoon is that the author is also the author of the national defense pamphlet of the Taiwan Army,most of the plot of the story is consistent with the current defense strategy publicly publicized by the Taiwan Army——let the conscripts bear the fire of the attackers in the coastal buildings and fortifications to consume the enemy, while the elite mobile troops are placed behind to wait for the opportunity to counterattack,the air force took the initiative to attack the enemy's vital points，anti ship missiles and the Navy weaken the enemy's landing fleet.
All the contents are consistent with Taiwan's defense minister's proposal of "blocking the enemy on the other shore, attacking the enemy on the sea, destroying the enemy on the inshore, and annihilating the enemy on the beach".
I shouldn't share the most ridiculous stories in order to liven up the atmosphere.
I think sometimes we can get a glimpse of the real ideas of Taiwan society from the popular cultural products,even in the most absurd stories, we can see that the Taiwanese have a huge psychological advantage over Chinese Mainland: American technology is absolutely powerful, and the free world will defend them.Some Taiwanese townspeople once publicly declared in media interviews that if PLA really had the ability, how could it not take action for more than 70 years?The reasons for this strange sense of superiority are often ridiculous: for example, they believe that Taiwan has the world's most stringent air defense network, so they are safe.
But on the other hand, they have a serious tendency of opportunism：Foreigners may find it difficult to understand how unrealistic expectations Taiwanese politicians and some overseas Chinese have for trump，they urgently hope that trump will take the most severe measures against China - even war.The Soleimani incident has deepened the impression that he acted recklessly.
The content of this comic quickly became obsolete two years after it began to be serialized,Trump failed to win re-election,Covid-19 changed everything.
The Ukrainian war has given us a lot of new insights.Taiwan is also claiming to learn from the Ukrainian experience,however, I think what they can do is to use civilian buildings as fortresses as advertised，and distribute portable missiles to every soldier. This is no change from their past strategy, and this cartoon fully reflects the content of their defense strategy.
Compared with those Japanese cartoonists who lack professional knowledge and are whimsical, the military literacy of this Taiwan Army propagandist is already very good,however, his knowledge is still not enough to support his assumption of such a grand theme, and he does not always pay attention to the progress of PLA as we do.
While there are a few crazies who think they can launch an open rebellion and win, I would strongly hesitate to say enough ROC soldiers share that sentiment enough to give them a psychological advantage. In fact, defeatism seems more rampant especially in the lower ranks.
Beijing does not want a bloody war, like the Korean one, that could see potential foreign enemies join the battle out of opportunism. Politicians can't rally the support to spend a hundred thousand casualties, as would probably be the case if the PLA moved earlier. Negotiation is the best option.
If it came to direct fighting again, the government forces has huge access to precision strikes. Air defense systems and planes can be taken out by cruise missiles, stealth fighter/drone SEAD, artillery and MLRS. Once those are out, heavy bombers can fly with impunity and drop bunker busters to completely destroy what remains of ROC command.
There is a non zero chance that America will use the fighting as a pretext to invade, much like how Russia acted in Crimea and the Donbass. To deter that, China must prepare strong economical countermeasures and rally international support, particularly from key energy exporters such as Saudi, Venezuela et al. Bonus if resource rich African countries can be rallied. Invasion can be deterred if its made clear that a majority of US citizens will lose their life savings, lose access to international goods, lose access to fuel etc.
And if an invasion is coming, China needs to fortify Taiwan island and its surroundings ASAP and defend the beaches. America will likely commit its whole navy, putting China at a numerical disadvantage, but islands along with the mainland itself can act as force multipliers.
Beijing does not want a bloody war, like the Korean one, that could see potential foreign enemies join the battle out of opportunism. Politicians can't rally the support to spend a hundred thousand casualties, as would probably be the case if the PLA moved earlier. Negotiation is the best option.
If it came to direct fighting again, the government forces has huge access to precision strikes. Air defense systems and planes can be taken out by cruise missiles, stealth fighter/drone SEAD, artillery and MLRS. Once those are out, heavy bombers can fly with impunity and drop bunker busters to completely destroy what remains of ROC command.
There is a non zero chance that America will use the fighting as a pretext to invade, much like how Russia acted in Crimea and the Donbass. To deter that, China must prepare strong economical countermeasures and rally international support, particularly from key energy exporters such as Saudi, Venezuela et al. Bonus if resource rich African countries can be rallied. Invasion can be deterred if its made clear that a majority of US citizens will lose their life savings, lose access to international goods, lose access to fuel etc.
And if an invasion is coming, China needs to fortify Taiwan island and its surroundings ASAP and defend the beaches. America will likely commit its whole navy, putting China at a numerical disadvantage, but islands along with the mainland itself can act as force multipliers.
With regards to that comic. Aircraft carriers would be mostly useless for an assault on Taiwan. At most you might use them on the Eastern side of the island. Taiwan is within range of airbases in the Chinese mainland. There is no point in putting a carrier between Taiwan and the Chinese mainland because that would place it within striking range of anti-shipping missiles.
What is way more likely is multiple waves of attacks. All the smaller islands will be taken simultaneously at the same time an attack on the main island is done. The PLA will try to get air superiority on day one and use air superiority to insert heliborne assault troops on the main island. Penghu might be used as a forward operations base for sending helicopters or drones into Taiwan. Initially, before taking Penghu, those helicopter and drone operations would be done from the LHDs.
With regards to air superiority Taiwan has not had it since the late 1990s when the PRC got large amounts of J-11 aircraft.
What is way more likely is multiple waves of attacks. All the smaller islands will be taken simultaneously at the same time an attack on the main island is done. The PLA will try to get air superiority on day one and use air superiority to insert heliborne assault troops on the main island. Penghu might be used as a forward operations base for sending helicopters or drones into Taiwan. Initially, before taking Penghu, those helicopter and drone operations would be done from the LHDs.
With regards to air superiority Taiwan has not had it since the late 1990s when the PRC got large amounts of J-11 aircraft.
What is the significance of the name of the Fujian supercarrier for Taiwan, if any?
Is the name Fujian intended to send a deterrence message to the Tsai administration, given the close proximity of the mainland province?
Alternatively, one can also interpret the name to be a subtle attempt to connect with some Taiwanese, because of the shared close linguistic, cultural and historical ties with Fujian province...
Or am I just biased as a Taiwanese and overthinking the name?
Is the name Fujian intended to send a deterrence message to the Tsai administration, given the close proximity of the mainland province?
Alternatively, one can also interpret the name to be a subtle attempt to connect with some Taiwanese, because of the shared close linguistic, cultural and historical ties with Fujian province...
Or am I just biased as a Taiwanese and overthinking the name?
Fujian has long been the most important front line for war preparation, and the significance of aircraft carrier naming is self-evident.
However, I believe that the Taiwan media will quickly make up a story to prove that this new aircraft carrier will be destroyed by the invincible Hsiung Feng III missile.
Do you really think there is a connection? My two bob worth, China names its carriers from north: Liaoning, Shangdong, Fujian. Who knows, next one could be Guangzhou, Guangxi and so on....
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Fujian is no longer the northern region. However, for Guangdong / Hong Kong people, all areas north of Guangdong are "North".
The civil support to the Navy should be taken into account in the naming of naval vessels in China,such as consolation activities and the employment of retired personnel arranged by the local government.There are also considerations about the political status of provinces / cities.
Liaoning and Shandong are both important naval provinces. At the same time, geographically, these two provinces constitute a barrier to protect the capital region.
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The network broke down again. The new draft of network management method raised my blood pressure. I tried my best to stop myself from complaining at length.
On the bright side, it may be preparing for future military operations. I hope so.
Well, in order to save my blood pressure, I decided to pay a fee for my VPN to ensure that I can connect to this website normally.
As I expected, Taiwan public opinion immediately responded to the new aircraft carrier, and they immediately made up some new excuse:
AGM-158C has quickly become an important weapon for Taiwan to place its hopes on,and some people began to claim that all missiles should be concentrated to destroy 003, the "pride of the navy".
Of course, I think the premise should be that the 003 aircraft carrier will be as close to Taiwan as they expected.
But I think sharing too much of this nonsense is like taking out the garbage.
Although there is a great disparity in strength, everyone can see that some people are stubborn beyond imagination,the development of the situation in the Taiwan is like a bad B-level horror film. Those "actors" have lost their sense of risk just like in the script, and have driven themselves to a dead end through a series of bad and stupid acts.All advice and help were ignored by the "actors".
Superstition about the United States will be their most important cardiotonic. Even if it does not help to change the situation, any assistance with weapons will make their attitude extremely tough.
I think AGM-158C may be used as a supplement to Taiwan's cruise missile manufacturing. Their practical application method is likely to create panic by attacking political and economic centers.As for the attack on military targets, I think it is not easy, although there is a view in Taiwan that the Taiwan Air Force should take the initiative to launch a "preventive attack" on the PLA when it is found that the PLA is assembling troops in the port.
But if American air power uses this weapon, the threat will be great.
As I expected, Taiwan public opinion immediately responded to the new aircraft carrier, and they immediately made up some new excuse:
AGM-158C has quickly become an important weapon for Taiwan to place its hopes on,and some people began to claim that all missiles should be concentrated to destroy 003, the "pride of the navy".
Of course, I think the premise should be that the 003 aircraft carrier will be as close to Taiwan as they expected.
But I think sharing too much of this nonsense is like taking out the garbage.
Although there is a great disparity in strength, everyone can see that some people are stubborn beyond imagination,the development of the situation in the Taiwan is like a bad B-level horror film. Those "actors" have lost their sense of risk just like in the script, and have driven themselves to a dead end through a series of bad and stupid acts.All advice and help were ignored by the "actors".
Superstition about the United States will be their most important cardiotonic. Even if it does not help to change the situation, any assistance with weapons will make their attitude extremely tough.
I think AGM-158C may be used as a supplement to Taiwan's cruise missile manufacturing. Their practical application method is likely to create panic by attacking political and economic centers.As for the attack on military targets, I think it is not easy, although there is a view in Taiwan that the Taiwan Air Force should take the initiative to launch a "preventive attack" on the PLA when it is found that the PLA is assembling troops in the port.
But if American air power uses this weapon, the threat will be great.
I took a moment to look at the past history of this topic.This topic has a huge gap period from 2014 to 2021,I think anyone who pays attention to the cross-strait situation can realize what happened during this period.
People once argued over the status of Taiwan and the legitimacy of the war of reunification, and once believed that peace would be the future.
But as the DPP, which is good at playing with street politics, regains power and makes the situation more and more tense,people pay more attention to the feasibility of military action.
In the 10 years from 2011 to 2021, the PLA has made remarkable military progress, and force has become a more and more likely option.
When the Taiwanese were delighted with the increasingly obvious support of the Americans, they did not expect that some people in Chinese Mainland were also excited - the mainland government would find it difficult to find an excuse to continue this tormenting. You should understand that preferential treatment means privileges in fact. No one can stand a group of swindlers seizing privileges while resisting reunification.
I like a picture very much：
When you discuss the possible strategies of the PLA, I think this picture well shows the possible attack modes.
Unfortunately, the fyjs forum was closed in 2019, which symbolized the end of the "golden age" for Chinese military enthusiasts.
So I can't find the original explanation of this picture, but I can still simply translate it：
1、Strike key targets with tactical missiles.
2、Reconnaissance and strike with long-range UAV.
3、Stealth fighter performs air control mission.
4、Fighter and fighter-bomber mix to suppress airport and air defense.
5、Follow up troops clean up residual targets.
6、Special aircraft provide air support.
7、Bombers and fighter-bombers attack ground targets.
8、Airborne troops.
9、Helicopter gunships wiped out the coastal garrison
I don't fully understand the operational mode of the air force. There may be some mistakes.
People once argued over the status of Taiwan and the legitimacy of the war of reunification, and once believed that peace would be the future.
But as the DPP, which is good at playing with street politics, regains power and makes the situation more and more tense,people pay more attention to the feasibility of military action.
In the 10 years from 2011 to 2021, the PLA has made remarkable military progress, and force has become a more and more likely option.
When the Taiwanese were delighted with the increasingly obvious support of the Americans, they did not expect that some people in Chinese Mainland were also excited - the mainland government would find it difficult to find an excuse to continue this tormenting. You should understand that preferential treatment means privileges in fact. No one can stand a group of swindlers seizing privileges while resisting reunification.
I like a picture very much：
When you discuss the possible strategies of the PLA, I think this picture well shows the possible attack modes.
Unfortunately, the fyjs forum was closed in 2019, which symbolized the end of the "golden age" for Chinese military enthusiasts.
So I can't find the original explanation of this picture, but I can still simply translate it：
1、Strike key targets with tactical missiles.
2、Reconnaissance and strike with long-range UAV.
3、Stealth fighter performs air control mission.
4、Fighter and fighter-bomber mix to suppress airport and air defense.
5、Follow up troops clean up residual targets.
6、Special aircraft provide air support.
7、Bombers and fighter-bombers attack ground targets.
8、Airborne troops.
9、Helicopter gunships wiped out the coastal garrison
I don't fully understand the operational mode of the air force. There may be some mistakes.