PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

I think one factor that isn't mentioned often is that Taiwan is a democracy with a ton of special interests, and shipping companies and fisherman are some of the most powerful forces. They will fight tooth and nail to prevent extensive mining since it would cause a major hindrance to their operations. Considering the amount of traffic around Taiwan's eastern most ports, and the space needed for large cargo vessels need to operate and how dependent Taiwan is on exports, minimum mining can occur before the scenario. Example, an Evergreen G Class weighs 240k tons and needs 10 miles to turn 90 degrees, the buffer area required would make that field useless. In addition the prospect of an accident with say an oil tanker, would have tragic environmental consequences and get a lot of pushback. Combining fishing grounds and PLAN ships will only have to be worried about mines that can be deployed by systems like HIMARS and whatever planes and ships can sneak into the strait. If for some reason Taiwan manages to get a large minefield nearby, the PLA can just wait for Taiwan's export economy to collapse and get a government more willing to negotiate during the next election.

In addition unlike in the KMT era, citizens in Taiwan now have recourse and say in military matters. Who is going to want to risk their multi million USD apartment getting blown up when the military wants to put an unmanned turret nearby, that's just begging to be a victim of collateral damage. you will see NIMBYS that will limit where Taiwanese forces can deploy.

zhangjim said:

It may be a bit off the topic, but this cartoon does reflect the ideas of some Taiwanese troops.
In the unshared comic plot,Taiwan's military seems to plan to use the eastern part of the island as an important area for preserving strength and receiving external assistance.
They will concentrate anti-ship forces and the navy in the eastern region to resist the PLAN's blockade of the eastern waters.

In addition to those forcibly set story trends, in general, the cartoon well reflects the defense vision of the Taiwan army. Of course, the propaganda color is very heavy, but the author is really confident in the Taiwan army. He believes that he has improved the PLA's combat effectiveness in the story.

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See this idea is just infeasible if you look at the infrastructure. 1. Ports ()

Suao and Hualien handle at best 3-5% of Taiwan's inbound cargo by tonnage. Considering the food, energy, and weapon demand there is no way to supply Taiwan with just the infrastructure in the east. In addition, there is no east <-> west Oil/LNG pipeline in Taiwan so meaning even if they could protect those ports, you would need trucks to transport the energy.

Onto roads, every east west road in Taiwan with exception of National Highway 5 , which is the only multilane highway across Taiwan, sucks ass. Has anyone really driven on the roads, they are at best 1.5 lanes and so squiggly they could make the Rally car world
champion sweat.

Like this road is so squiggly google maps blurs it together. If you consider the refugee situation the roads get even worse. And then considering that from my knowledge, most of the stockpiles are in the west, how are you going to continue the fight? You can't evacuate an island of 20 million in a month and that month would be full of debate and uncertainty.

Using the east as an ASM base could be feasible if you could use US ISR, but at that point you might as well leave it up to the Americans. Apparently 20-30% of the Taiwanese ASM stockpile is still on Kinmen and Matsu too

God i feel bad for any Taiwanese soldier in an invasion. its pretty damn bleak

HumanHDMI said:

I think one factor that isn't mentioned often is that Taiwan is a democracy with a ton of special interests, and shipping companies and fisherman are some of the most powerful forces. They will fight tooth and nail to prevent extensive mining since it would cause a major hindrance to their operations. Considering the amount of traffic around Taiwan's eastern most ports, and the space needed for large cargo vessels need to operate and how dependent Taiwan is on exports, minimum mining can occur before the scenario. Example, an Evergreen G Class weighs 240k tons and needs 10 miles to turn 90 degrees, the buffer area required would make that field useless. In addition the prospect of an accident with say an oil tanker, would have tragic environmental consequences and get a lot of pushback. Combining fishing grounds and PLAN ships will only have to be worried about mines that can be deployed by systems like HIMARS and whatever planes and ships can sneak into the strait. If for some reason Taiwan manages to get a large minefield nearby, the PLA can just wait for Taiwan's export economy to collapse and get a government more willing to negotiate during the next election.

In addition unlike in the KMT era, citizens in Taiwan now have recourse and say in military matters. Who is going to want to risk their multi million USD apartment getting blown up when the military wants to put an unmanned turret nearby, that's just begging to be a victim of collateral damage. you will see NIMBYS that will limit where Taiwanese forces can deploy.

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250 kg bombs would easily collapse them.

PiSigma said:

I don't agree with that. If Japan actually provide troops in a Taiwan liberation scenario, then the Chinese population will demand completely crush japan militarily. This is as revenge for ww3 and the interference in Taiwan. In this case, probably force japan to accept Ryukyu independence and become a Chinese protectorate and also allow Chinese basing in Japan ala American style. Or face a couple of nukes if they refuse.

Can't remember where I heard this, but someone told me the first use policy doesn't apply to Japan.

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Unlikely. China may go as far as taking back Diaoyu Island and sink a couple of Japan's carriers. But that will be about it.

For China to accomplish what you said, it will require total defeat of Japan like what US did in WW2. But to do that, China will have to fight the US too.

Secondly, it is not in Chinese character to militarily annihilate another country, in particularly when it is separate by the sea far off China's coast.

Thirdly, after achieving Taiwan reunification by force, all Chinese (those residing in mainland as well as in Taiwan Province) will be eager to return to normal life as soon as possible, even if China is under Western sanction.

FairAndUnbiased said:

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250 kg bombs would easily collapse them.

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I remember that this point was mentioned in another forum. In order to use civil buildings as fortresses, the existing building standards must be modified, and large-scale reconstruction may be carried out. The existing underground air defense facilities must be transformed on a large scale.
By the way, quora's answer in this regard is really terrible. Most of them really think that the Taiwanese have the "Atlantic fortress" of the new era

zhangjim said:

I remember that this point was mentioned in another forum. In order to use civil buildings as fortresses, the existing building standards must be modified, and large-scale reconstruction may be carried out. The existing underground air defense facilities must be transformed on a large scale.
By the way, quora's answer in this regard is really terrible. Most of them really think that the Taiwanese have the "Atlantic fortress" of the new era

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This type of Reddit mentality that I've seen dating back even to the 90's is also why those folks have such a hard time comprehending the fact that the Russians are thrashing the Ukrainians even with a nominal numerical deficit in ground forces.

Rettam Stacf said:

Unlikely. China may go as far as taking back Diaoyu Island and sink a couple of Japan's carriers. But that will be about it.

For China to accomplish what you said, it will require total defeat of Japan like what US did in WW2. But to do that, China will have to fight the US too.

Secondly, it is not in Chinese character to militarily annihilate another country, in particularly when it is separate by the sea far off China's coast.

Thirdly, after achieving Taiwan reunification by force, all Chinese (those residing in mainland as well as in Taiwan Province) will be eager to return to normal life as soon as possible, even if China is under Western sanction.

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This is Japan, I'm sure they are exceptions to most of what you say.

zhangjim said:

It may be a bit off the topic, but this cartoon does reflect the ideas of some Taiwanese troops.
In the unshared comic plot,Taiwan's military seems to plan to use the eastern part of the island as an important area for preserving strength and receiving external assistance.
They will concentrate anti-ship forces and the navy in the eastern region to resist the PLAN's blockade of the eastern waters.

Click to expand...

Plans for the ROC military to flee eastwards to the eastern coastline for regrouping and reorganizing a counterattack should be anticipated, in my opinion. For that, the PLA would have to saturate the military installations along the eastern half of Taiwan with guided missiles and guided bombs first, mainly through shipborne missile and land and carrier-based air attacks.

One thing to note is that there are two major ROCAF air bases located on Taiwan's east coast, namely Chiashan Air Base in Hualien and Chihhang Air Base in Taitung - both of which have extensive underground hangars being built underneath the mountains. Capable of housing 200 and 80 aircrafts respectively, they are meant to shield those sheltered planes from China's air and missile strikes from the mainland using the Taiwanese mountain ranges as cover.



Although, one thing that I am very thankful for is that the ROCAF does not operate any VTOL or SVTOL fighters, which meant that they are fully dependent on runways. And we all know that runways can be cratered easily with anti-runway munitions in the PLA's military arsenal.

Back to the point - Since destroying individual planes underground hangars in Hualien and Taitung using conventional air and missile strikes are practically impossible, I do envision that the PLAN and PLAAF would use low-altitude, ground-hugging missiles from the east and south that could struck and collapse all the tunnel entrances and exits into those underground hangars.

MOAB/FOAB-like bombs are also useful to shake the terrain hard enough so as to trigger collapses of those tunnel entrances, although air supremacy must be obtained/total surprise must be achieved, as MOAB/FOAB-like bombs shown below (by the PLAAF in 2019) could only be carried by bombers that are vulnerable to enemy aircraft and air defenses.



Here's a brief read regarding China's underground hangars by Business Insider dated way back in 2012:

Collapsing those tunnel entrances would definitely help to trap any ROCAF planes still inside those underground hangars for considerable periods of time, alongside cratering the runways and taxiways of those airbases. This would aid significantly in PLAAF's work in clearing up Taiwan and enforcing China's grip over the island as quickly as possible.

Rettam Stacf said:

Unlikely. China may go as far as taking back Diaoyu Island and sink a couple of Japan's carriers. But that will be about it.

For China to accomplish what you said, it will require total defeat of Japan like what US did in WW2. But to do that, China will have to fight the US too.

Secondly, it is not in Chinese character to militarily annihilate another country, in particularly when it is separate by the sea far off China's coast.

Thirdly, after achieving Taiwan reunification by force, all Chinese (those residing in mainland as well as in Taiwan Province) will be eager to return to normal life as soon as possible, even if China is under Western sanction.

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It is definitely in Chinese nature to want to give japan what they deserve. If US want to get involved, then go ahead. China assumed US and Japan gets involved in a Taiwan scenario anyway.

There is no need to conquer japan, just demilitarized them and complete their government transformation - remove all the WW2 militant Descendents from government.

PiSigma said:

There is no need to conquer japan, just demilitarized them and complete their government transformation - remove all the WW2 militant Descendents from government

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Sounds familiar...