PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

PiSigma

PiSigma

"the engineer"
56860

56860

Senior Member
Registered Member
PiSigma said:
It is definitely in Chinese nature to want to give japan what they deserve. If US want to get involved, then go ahead. China assumed US and Japan gets involved in a Taiwan scenario anyway.

There is no need to conquer japan, just demilitarized them and complete their government transformation - remove all the WW2 militant Descendents from government.
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I think it's also necessary to turn yasukuni shrine into a parking lot.
 
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supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
HumanHDMI said:
I think one factor that isn't mentioned often is that Taiwan is a democracy with a ton of special interests, and shipping companies and fisherman are some of the most powerful forces. They will fight tooth and nail to prevent extensive mining since it would cause a major hindrance to their operations. Considering the amount of traffic around Taiwan's eastern most ports, and the space needed for large cargo vessels need to operate and how dependent Taiwan is on exports, minimum mining can occur before the scenario. Example, an Evergreen G Class weighs 240k tons and needs 10 miles to turn 90 degrees, the buffer area required would make that field useless. In addition the prospect of an accident with say an oil tanker, would have tragic environmental consequences and get a lot of pushback. Combining fishing grounds and PLAN ships will only have to be worried about mines that can be deployed by systems like HIMARS and whatever planes and ships can sneak into the strait. If for some reason Taiwan manages to get a large minefield nearby, the PLA can just wait for Taiwan's export economy to collapse and get a government more willing to negotiate during the next election.

In addition unlike in the KMT era, citizens in Taiwan now have recourse and say in military matters. Who is going to want to risk their multi million USD apartment getting blown up when the military wants to put an unmanned turret nearby, that's just begging to be a victim of collateral damage. you will see NIMBYS that will limit where Taiwanese forces can deploy.
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Actually it’s been mentioned many times. The other big question, 40% of TW exports go to the mainland, if you want to declare independence, this business must be wound down.

How do you accomplish this in a developed place? Ukraine was able to wind down their trade with Russia, but that is a country that has a failed post Soviet economy.
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ACuriousPLAFan said:
Plans for the ROC military to flee eastwards to the eastern coastline for regrouping and reorganizing a counterattack should be anticipated, in my opinion. For that, the PLA would have to saturate the military installations along the eastern half of Taiwan with guided missiles and guided bombs first, mainly through shipborne missile and land and carrier-based air attacks.

One thing to note is that there are two major ROCAF air bases located on Taiwan's east coast, namely Chiashan Air Base in Hualien and Chihhang Air Base in Taitung - both of which have extensive underground hangars being built underneath the mountains. Capable of housing 200 and 80 aircrafts respectively, they are meant to shield those sheltered planes from China's air and missile strikes from the mainland using the Taiwanese mountain ranges as cover.

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Although, one thing that I am very thankful for is that the ROCAF does not operate any VTOL or SVTOL fighters, which meant that they are fully dependent on runways. And we all know that runways can be cratered easily with anti-runway munitions in the PLA's military arsenal.

Back to the point - Since destroying individual planes underground hangars in Hualien and Taitung using conventional air and missile strikes are practically impossible, I do envision that the PLAN and PLAAF would use low-altitude, ground-hugging missiles from the east and south that could struck and collapse all the tunnel entrances and exits into those underground hangars.

MOAB/FOAB-like bombs are also useful to shake the terrain hard enough so as to trigger collapses of those tunnel entrances, although air supremacy must be obtained/total surprise must be achieved, as MOAB/FOAB-like bombs shown below (by the PLAAF in 2019) could only be carried by bombers that are vulnerable to enemy aircraft and air defenses.

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Here's a brief read regarding China's underground hangars by Business Insider dated way back in 2012:
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Collapsing those tunnel entrances would definitely help to trap any ROCAF planes still inside those underground hangars for considerable periods of time, alongside cratering the runways and taxiways of those airbases. This would aid significantly in PLAAF's work in clearing up Taiwan and enforcing China's grip over the island as quickly as possible.
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ROCAF does not currently have enough AAMs to equip all those F-16 with a full combat load.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
supersnoop said:
Actually it’s been mentioned many times. The other big question, 40% of TW exports go to the mainland, if you want to declare independence, this business must be wound down.
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Going forward, the Chinese economy would still have to triple in size if it were to catch up to US wealth levels.

So China-Taiwan trade should still increase in the future.
 
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Biscuits

Major
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AndrewS said:
Going forward, the Chinese economy would still have to triple in size if it were to catch up to US wealth levels.

So China-Taiwan trade should still increase in the future.
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Tbf US massively bloats their gdp per capita by 1. Having disproportionate amount of billionaires 2. Counting expensive and pointless services that should be public into transactions.

There's a lot of countries with higher life quality than America while just having a fraction of gdp per capita. US just inflates the heck out of it so they can in the past keep the first place and nowadays keep the second place. It doesn't benefit the civilians greatly.

I expect China to have only about as high gdp per capita as the average left leaning EU country when in the 2030s-2040s era. Ex. Like Finland or Estonia. And at that point, the economy would plateau out.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Biscuits said:
Tbf US massively bloats their gdp per capita by 1. Having disproportionate amount of billionaires 2. Counting expensive and pointless services that should be public into transactions.

There's a lot of countries with higher life quality than America while just having a fraction of gdp per capita. US just inflates the heck out of it so they can in the past keep the first place and nowadays keep the second place. It doesn't benefit the civilians greatly.

I expect China to have only about as high gdp per capita as the average left leaning EU country when in the 2030s-2040s era. Ex. Like Finland or Estonia. And at that point, the economy would plateau out.
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If you go with that scenario, China still has to double the size of the economy to reach Finnish levels.
 
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