PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

zhangjim said:

My English skills were largely lost after I graduated from college, so I need to use some tools.I couldn't correct some of the statement errors before because of the network.

China will not see the kind of collapse claimed by doomsday prophets,but there are indeed many unpromising internal red flags.
In the past few years I would have thought that the landing capability needed further strengthening, so waiting a few years would have been appropriate.

But these two years I have changed my opinion.The international environment is rapidly deteriorating and that the Americans are taking the initiative to inflame the conflict.
And the problems accumulated in recent years in the past rapid development of our country has now come to a concentrated explosion.
The future is too variable, and the handling of many of today's socially focused issues is disappointing: people make a big deal of criticism, but as the heat dies down, everything goes back to the old ways and nothing changes.
Local governments play rogue in some deadly PR crises，the shadow under the halo is very heavy.

The enterprising spirit of the whole society is disappearing, so we have to question whether the government has the will to realize national reunification.
It is disappointing that the official slogan of peaceful reunification is still being chanted, but the general public no longer sees any hope in it.
Taiwanese are taking advantage of preferential treatment policies for profit,but no ruling party in Taiwan has the will to reunify.

No one can support such ineffective slogans without complaint,what's worse is that many experts are spending their energy on studying what policies to use to give preferential treatment to Taiwanese.
This is a very bad situation and the country has formed interest groups that exploit ethnic division for profit and impede reunification in various ways.

We are not like the Americans who can throw all the blame on the previous ruling party and all the grievances will be directed at the CPC, but the CPC has long since ceased to be a group with highly aligned interests.To the left or to the right is still a question that needs to be faced.

On the issue of political legitimacy, some believe that the government should not squander this valuable asset excessively, and that a large part of the success of many things must be attributed to the dedication of the people's support, but this does not mean that problems and burdens can be thrown on the people at will.

China has a cruel historical experience: any time it shows the slightest sign of weakness, the neighboring countries will swarm like vipers.
The rather dazzling U.S. military mythology has created extreme contempt for China's military capabilities in many countries and has fueled their adventurist tendencies.

It was once said that the Chinese have not experienced a full cycle of economic crisis, but the Americans have not experienced a full cycle of national rise and fall.

Although we have experienced numerous difficult moments, each generation has to face problems that are their own.The next few years may be even more difficult.

The Western world is much more fragile than we think，there is no better time to take action than right now.It should act decisively before falling into decadence, especially since China historically has a bad habit of voluntarily contracting its borders and giving up territory when the country is in trouble.

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Curious what you mean by action. I don't blame the government continuing for pushing narratives for a peaceful reunification as that is still the best case scenario. I mean realistically the status quo is the best case scenario for China and Taiwan, but not for the US.

I see divide in the west as well and I think China has a great opportunity, but sadly don't think it can capture it when the house is not stable.

It would be cool to have a politics thread to discuss the changes in leadership and to cover the NPC and what not.

I slept too late yesterday, and my biological clock has made my wake-up time a regular one. I have things to do in the morning, so I'm not going back to bed, so I might as well take advantage of this time to talk more.

manqiangrexue said:

Wait, wait, I just reread this. You said that a local government went expressly against the State's rules and tried to cover it up... and you consider that the fault of the CCP state??? This is a classic case of bad apples in a good barrel.

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The emergence of good things will praise the whole, the emergence of bad things will be treated differently, which in my opinion is undoubtedly a double standard.The fortunate thing about this incident is that it got enough exposure, but I don't know if the mistake will be corrected, after all, this is a tens of billions of debt crisis.

I don't give a damn that you find funny or not. Ask what you can do for your country not what your country can do for you. Serve China with all you have; expect nothing back and one day, you or your next generation will be rewarded with the greatest reward in existance, which is to be the strongest and most respected people on earth.

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Sir, I don't want to make a personal attack,but these words are just too generic and useless.
People need to live and support their families,this matter is not a great contribution and sacrifice,this is a vicious economic crime of illegal misappropriation of deposits.

Don't go against the government. They save lives. If you couldn't get personal benefit this time, if you had to sacrifice, too bad, we all do our part. Think Battle of Lake Changjin (movie). Give your last breath for your nation, don't bitch at it all day for not being nice enough to you.

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With 400,000 victims in just one region, what kind of disaster would it be if there were a nationwide outbreak?What rhetoric can you use to convince these people to give up their property？
——————————————————————————
Optimism is necessary, but this year it's really important to stay vigilant.This place is not suitable for too much discussion of such non-military related topics，but I think it's important to remind those who envision their strategies with positive optimism in mind:The reason China failed to take military action was not to wait for a better time,simply because they are stuck in a quagmire of internal governance that they cannot extricate themselves from.


I'd like to say more about military affairs.
When you look back at history, you will be surprised by the condition of the army.
In the most dangerous 1990s, China's nuclear weapons deterrent capability could be completely ignored,the most important DF-5 missile is limited by funding and its performance is not stable.

If SSBN with only symbolic meaning is not considered,so the worst estimate is that nuclear missiles with deterrent capability are only in single digits.
Secrecy saved China,but soon a lot of key information was revealed to the Americans by the traitors, and the most significant loss was that the initial design of the DF-31 was scrapped because of the leak.

The lack of military action in 1996 was undoubtedly correct, but it became an important basis for the subsequent arrogant provocations of the Taiwanese independence faction: they think that the CPC would not dare to act at all!

Trump is arrogant and aggressive towards China，but he treats Putin with deference.
There is a political pull to this, but I like his straightforwardness: The United States will only negotiate with adversaries capable of destroying the United States（I've forgotten the source of the original quote, but only the general meaning）

Nuclear deterrence is the most important bottom card to solve the Taiwan issue, which is well known to everyone.We all know very well what those "wind turbines" in the desert really are.

But another unseen danger is masked by propaganda：Political Corruption.
Before punishing Guo and Xu, two senior military officials, we knew nothing about the severity of the corrosion of the army.
Officials tout our military's ability to defend our national interests, but the facts revealed are alarming.
Selling off military jobs and making training a formality to avoid risk，it was not until the fall of two generals that people within the military dared to speak the truth that they had not dared to disclose in the past.
The final military reforms cut off the military from economic activities and put an end to the history of commercial activities by the military.
Decisions made in the 1980s ended up taking us almost 20 years to clean up the situation.

Before the reform, General Jin Yi Nan once revealed an amazing fact: the knowledge level of senior generals in the early 21st century was ridiculously deficient, and they lacked the most basic vigilance to the external environment.

As you can see from the text（Page 3）, these generals do not know why the wings of carrier based aircraft are folded, nor can they tell the difference between APC and IFV!

I was young at the time, and the rampant independence movement in Taiwan was at its peak.PLA is one of the few groups we can trust,General Zhang Zhaozhong once showed a high degree of alertness to the situation in an interview，but many people just look at him as a meme.

This is a thought-provoking article, General Zhang has an extremely sober understanding of the situation.
We can trust the people's army, but it's hard to say whether the rest of the people are so sober and vigilant.Many of the problems that exist today also stem from this reason.

Today the building of military forces has reached a satisfactory point,the U.S. can no longer maintain the so-called "balance" by selling weapons, but today's arms sales are still a strong act of provocation.
But looking back, I have to think so: many problems were cleverly covered up by the propaganda that.Defense is very vulnerable for a long time.
There is a joke widely spread: use me in the first battle and bear the consequences（首战用我，后果自负）
It's good to learn a little bit about the military, he can make me realize how dangerous the past is and how harsh the reality is underneath the propaganda that was once spoken so loudly.

zhangjim said:

I slept too late yesterday, and my biological clock has made my wake-up time a regular one. I have things to do in the morning, so I'm not going back to bed, so I might as well take advantage of this time to talk more.

The emergence of good things will praise the whole, the emergence of bad things will be treated differently, which in my opinion is undoubtedly a double standard.The fortunate thing about this incident is that it got enough exposure, but I don't know if the mistake will be corrected, after all, this is a tens of billions of debt crisis.

Sir, I don't want to make a personal attack,but these words are just too generic and useless.
People need to live and support their families,this matter is not a great contribution and sacrifice,this is a vicious economic crime of illegal misappropriation of deposits.

With 400,000 victims in just one region, what kind of disaster would it be if there were a nationwide outbreak?What rhetoric can you use to convince these people to give up their property？
——————————————————————————
Optimism is necessary, but this year it's really important to stay vigilant.This place is not suitable for too much discussion of such non-military related topics，but I think it's important to remind those who envision their strategies with positive optimism in mind:The reason China failed to take military action was not to wait for a better time,simply because they are stuck in a quagmire of internal governance that they cannot extricate themselves from.


I'd like to say more about military affairs.
When you look back at history, you will be surprised by the condition of the army.
In the most dangerous 1990s, China's nuclear weapons deterrent capability could be completely ignored,the most important DF-5 missile is limited by funding and its performance is not stable.

If SSBN with only symbolic meaning is not considered,so the worst estimate is that nuclear missiles with deterrent capability are only in single digits.
Secrecy saved China,but soon a lot of key information was revealed to the Americans by the traitors, and the most significant loss was that the initial design of the DF-31 was scrapped because of the leak.

The lack of military action in 1996 was undoubtedly correct, but it became an important basis for the subsequent arrogant provocations of the Taiwanese independence faction: they think that the CPC would not dare to act at all!

Trump is arrogant and aggressive towards China，but he treats Putin with deference.
There is a political pull to this, but I like his straightforwardness: The United States will only negotiate with adversaries capable of destroying the United States（I've forgotten the source of the original quote, but only the general meaning）

Nuclear deterrence is the most important bottom card to solve the Taiwan issue, which is well known to everyone.We all know very well what those "wind turbines" in the desert really are.

But another unseen danger is masked by propaganda：Political Corruption.
Before punishing Guo and Xu, two senior military officials, we knew nothing about the severity of the corrosion of the army.
Officials tout our military's ability to defend our national interests, but the facts revealed are alarming.
Selling off military jobs and making training a formality to avoid risk，it was not until the fall of two generals that people within the military dared to speak the truth that they had not dared to disclose in the past.
The final military reforms cut off the military from economic activities and put an end to the history of commercial activities by the military.
Decisions made in the 1980s ended up taking us almost 20 years to clean up the situation.

Before the reform, General Jin Yi Nan once revealed an amazing fact: the knowledge level of senior generals in the early 21st century was ridiculously deficient, and they lacked the most basic vigilance to the external environment.

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As you can see from the text（Page 3）, these generals do not know why the wings of carrier based aircraft are folded, nor can they tell the difference between APC and IFV!

I was young at the time, and the rampant independence movement in Taiwan was at its peak.PLA is one of the few groups we can trust,General Zhang Zhaozhong once showed a high degree of alertness to the situation in an interview，but many people just look at him as a meme.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

This is a thought-provoking article, General Zhang has an extremely sober understanding of the situation.
We can trust the people's army, but it's hard to say whether the rest of the people are so sober and vigilant.Many of the problems that exist today also stem from this reason.

Today the building of military forces has reached a satisfactory point,the U.S. can no longer maintain the so-called "balance" by selling weapons, but today's arms sales are still a strong act of provocation.
But looking back, I have to think so: many problems were cleverly covered up by the propaganda that.Defense is very vulnerable for a long time.
There is a joke widely spread: use me in the first battle and bear the consequences（首战用我，后果自负）
It's good to learn a little bit about the military, he can make me realize how dangerous the past is and how harsh the reality is underneath the propaganda that was once spoken so loudly.

Click to expand...

So in your opinion what do you believe to be the state of readiness of the entire PLA forces today. Do you think that it's reluctance to take the military action with respect to Taiwan maybe due to the degradation a.k.a. corrosive corruption that hasn't been completely removed from the PLA? If so, what gives you this impression?

And in your opinion, does China taking military action against Taiwan in a unilateral fashion the best course of action to take considering the most severe of economic sanctions which will therefore result in economic pains to the millions of Chinese folks that you profess to care about all because you're need to attack Taiwan is to sort of galvanize or show the Chinese people that what? The PLA is indeed a very capable force? Isn't this an exercise in extreme hubris, not to mention stupidity. I thought that one of the Chinese/PLA maxims is the often quoted Sun Tzu dictum which is “The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”

My take and understanding of the PLA strategy is to essentially build up the military by developing high tech weaponry along with high-intensity realistic training, building up the Navy and Air Force so large that it's size and power deters would be attackers and also ensures U.S. adventurism into China’s core red lines aren't breached to the point of no return.

I am interested on hearing more from you because I want to understand the perspectives you have and why you have arrived at such a place with respect to your views on the CPC, the PLA and your overall sense of pessimism about the country. I don't agree nor share your views, but nonetheless, your views deserves to be heard and full hearing.

Bellum_Romanum said:

So in your opinion what do you believe to be the state of readiness of the entire PLA forces today. Do you think that it's reluctance to take the military action with respect to Taiwan maybe due to the degradation a.k.a. corrosive corruption that hasn't been completely removed from the PLA? If so, what gives you this impression?

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The biggest obstacle is not the military.
It is a pity that there is no systematic collection of articles on the problems of PLA in the past,but personally I think the shortage of funding is the main factor.In the public press or in information shared privately by soldiers, it is known that before the military reform it was the norm to throw those high-tech equipment in storage and use traditional methods for exercises.Any thinking dilemma stems from a material one.

Today, PLA has a much better material base than ever before.So military readiness is no longer an issue.

But what is worrisome is the political issue.Many of us are concerned about the international environment, but little attention is paid to the internal problems of China.

What we worry about is whether the "Metamorphosis" of the leadership can maintain the purity of the proletarian political party after attracting capitalists into the party. Unfortunately, Chinese capitalists still have a strong comprador color, which will strengthen the possibility of choosing foreign compromise at the expense of workers' rights and interests.

I don't think these issues are suitable for this kind of forum, but whenever I see some people swear that there are no internal problems I can't help but refute.

The military is a group full of secrets for the public,much of the information we get relies on official propaganda, and many people do not have the expertise to judge the true level of the military.

The Chinese government's propaganda has always had a tendency to be seriously detached from the people and reality.But we don't know enough about the military, and the PLA has a good record in the past, which many people will take official propaganda at face value.
But wait until you are exposed to some knowledge before you realize that the Chinese government's propaganda capabilities are dismal, and that the PLA capabilities before military reform were not commensurate with the propaganda, and that this exaggerated image is further exaggerated by internet novels and crude TV dramas.
While China's domestic military forums are happy about the constant flow of new equipment, most are ignorant of the real risks that exist within.

This makes me very disgusted with these unrealistic propaganda. The bureaucracy that ignores laws and disciplines and abuses power is still rampant. The leadership is as elusive as a fog. We can only rely on some baseless rumors to speculate whether the leaders are "good people".

Not caring about politics does not mean that we can avoid bad policies that do whatever we want and ignore reality. The city I live in once suffered a rain disaster, which is largely due to the unrealistic municipal construction planning adopted by the municipal government.
This undoubtedly aggravates the sense of alienation between the people and the ruling party."Our country is strong, but it has nothing to do with me."This bad idea is spreading everywhere.

The preferential treatment policy for Taiwanese people has aroused great dissatisfaction，the most notorious statement of bureaucrats is:"宁可我们没有,也要台胞优先"(would rather we don't have, also want Taiwanese first).

When any great idea is so stupid when implemented, no one will have confidence in such management

zhangjim said:

The biggest obstacle is not the military.
It is a pity that there is no systematic collection of articles on the problems of PLA in the past,but personally I think the shortage of funding is the main factor.In the public press or in information shared privately by soldiers, it is known that before the military reform it was the norm to throw those high-tech equipment in storage and use traditional methods for exercises.Any thinking dilemma stems from a material one.

Today, PLA has a much better material base than ever before.So military readiness is no longer an issue.

But what is worrisome is the political issue.Many of us are concerned about the international environment, but little attention is paid to the internal problems of China.

What we worry about is whether the "Metamorphosis" of the leadership can maintain the purity of the proletarian political party after attracting capitalists into the party. Unfortunately, Chinese capitalists still have a strong comprador color, which will strengthen the possibility of choosing foreign compromise at the expense of workers' rights and interests.

I don't think these issues are suitable for this kind of forum, but whenever I see some people swear that there are no internal problems I can't help but refute.

The military is a group full of secrets for the public,much of the information we get relies on official propaganda, and many people do not have the expertise to judge the true level of the military.

The Chinese government's propaganda has always had a tendency to be seriously detached from the people and reality.But we don't know enough about the military, and the PLA has a good record in the past, which many people will take official propaganda at face value.
But wait until you are exposed to some knowledge before you realize that the Chinese government's propaganda capabilities are dismal, and that the PLA capabilities before military reform were not commensurate with the propaganda, and that this exaggerated image is further exaggerated by internet novels and crude TV dramas.
While China's domestic military forums are happy about the constant flow of new equipment, most are ignorant of the real risks that exist within.

This makes me very disgusted with these unrealistic propaganda. The bureaucracy that ignores laws and disciplines and abuses power is still rampant. The leadership is as elusive as a fog. We can only rely on some baseless rumors to speculate whether the leaders are "good people".

Not caring about politics does not mean that we can avoid bad policies that do whatever we want and ignore reality. The city I live in once suffered a rain disaster, which is largely due to the unrealistic municipal construction planning adopted by the municipal government.
This undoubtedly aggravates the sense of alienation between the people and the ruling party."Our country is strong, but it has nothing to do with me."This bad idea is spreading everywhere.

The preferential treatment policy for Taiwanese people has aroused great dissatisfaction，the most notorious statement of bureaucrats is:"宁可我们没有,也要台胞优先"(would rather we don't have, also want Taiwanese first).

When any great idea is so stupid when implemented, no one will have confidence in such management

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you write so much about China's domestic problems.

So my question is, why do you think that US and Taiwan don't have equal or worse domestic problems?

I asked you this before, and you were unable to give any answer.

manqiangrexue said:

Give them nothing; take from them everything. He just shat all over his country without an ounce of defence and he didn't get one sentence he could quote me on even out of context. If I had one sentence in there, "Yeah, of course the CCP makes mistakes too but we all do." Next morning New York Times: "Chinese Citizens Frustrated and Defeated, accepting it as a Matter of Course that the CCP makes Glaring Mistakes with thier Lives Every Day.

Be like this; be what your enemies hate. Don't be a Chinese guy who writes 2 pages of complaints about the CCP with a single sentence, "Of course the West is more insidious and useless." Takes 1 button to delete that sentence and turn you into the West's favorite type of Chinese person.

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Today, like all days since this new China USA cold war began, those aligned with China can do no wrong, and those opposed to China can do no right.

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Bellum_Romanum said:

I am interested on hearing more from you because I want to understand the perspectives you have and why you have arrived at such a place with respect to your views on the CPC, the PLA and your overall sense of pessimism about the country. I don't agree nor share your views, but nonetheless, your views deserves to be heard and full hearing.

Click to expand...

I'll say a few more words before I go to the shopping.

After many devastating attacks on domestic military forums, the remaining forums are very sensitive to all topics and avoid talking about all domestic military information.Even Baidu Baike has largely deleted relevant entries about domestic weapons.
Under such circumstances, I have to go to a place where I can still talk about serious topics.

China's military enthusiasts are different from those new Patriots,they have the valuable quality of having confidence in the motherland at the most difficult times, and they are very concerned about the future and destiny of the motherland.

Seeing those opportunists who profit from patriotism, I think they can never be compared with Chinese military enthusiasts.

But the government's reward to military enthusiasts is to "rectify" on the grounds of preventing and controlling leaks.
I know the importance of secrecy about nuclear weapons, but being deprived of the joy of life is not pleasant.

In my life, I have become numb to the movies, novels, games and animation that have been banned or roughly cut. The reasons why the government deprives you of your hobbies are often ridiculous.The cultural market is full of miasma and uninteresting garbage.
However, it is difficult to find a place without censorship to discuss your favorite military topics.

For me, the ruling party is still using the outdated and disgusting feudal method of controlling the people——”天威难测“（
The power of heaven is unpredictable），the key is discretion without clear criteria，forcing the people not to do anything "superfluous".Local government bureaucrats are using this trick without scruple.

When I saw that the managers of the domestic military forum gingerly prohibited anyone from expressing dissatisfaction with the government: "you are crazy! Do you want to destroy this forum?" I had to choose to leave and come here.

It turns out to be ironic, isn't it?

zhangjim said:

I'll say a few more words before I go to the shopping.

After many devastating attacks on domestic military forums, the remaining forums are very sensitive to all topics and avoid talking about all domestic military information.Even Baidu Baike has largely deleted relevant entries about domestic weapons.
Under such circumstances, I have to go to a place where I can still talk about serious topics.

China's military enthusiasts are different from those new Patriots,they have the valuable quality of having confidence in the motherland at the most difficult times, and they are very concerned about the future and destiny of the motherland.

Seeing those opportunists who profit from patriotism, I think they can never be compared with Chinese military enthusiasts.

But the government's reward to military enthusiasts is to "rectify" on the grounds of preventing and controlling leaks.
I know the importance of secrecy about nuclear weapons, but being deprived of the joy of life is not pleasant.

In my life, I have become numb to the movies, novels, games and animation that have been banned or roughly cut. The reasons why the government deprives you of your hobbies are often ridiculous.The cultural market is full of miasma and uninteresting garbage.
However, it is difficult to find a place without censorship to discuss your favorite military topics.

For me, the ruling party is still using the outdated and disgusting feudal method of controlling the people——”天威难测“（
The power of heaven is unpredictable），the key is discretion without clear criteria，forcing the people not to do anything "superfluous".Local government bureaucrats are using this trick without scruple.

When I saw that the managers of the domestic military forum gingerly prohibited anyone from expressing dissatisfaction with the government: "you are crazy! Do you want to destroy this forum?" I had to choose to leave and come here.

It turns out to be ironic, isn't it?

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I emphasize with you. I think a good way to phrase it is that the government is too utilitarian and willing to sacrifice a portion of the population for the greater good. Obviously it has a larger benefit but too little is done to mitigate the cost on people's lives.

Like the Zero COVID campaign for example, I worked in healthcare in the US and what I have seen is going to haunt me for the rest of my life, it was legitimately traumatic and why I have shifted to working in software (lol). I am firm in my belief that in the larger picture, Zero COVID is the best decision for China. I know for a fact Chinese hospitals are significantly less prepared than their US counterparts so a COVID wave would kill millions and the government would be helpless to stop it if a significant outbreak starts nationwide. It's the most utilitarian decision you can make, a city of locked residents is going to be less angry then millions who lose their loved ones. But the costs of the measures to the residents of locked down cities is high and the government has done little to compensate them. Ofc you can live a very good life in China now, but you really have no recourse if you're one of the people the government decides needs to be squashed for the benefit of the country.

zhangjim said:

In my life, I have become numb to the movies, novels, games and animation that have been banned or roughly cut. The reasons why the government deprives you of your hobbies are often ridiculous.The cultural market is full of miasma and uninteresting garbage.

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Can you list some of them, I think what you said is really funny. If the government really wanted to ban games, steam would have been gone a long time ago. Battlefield 4 claims to have been banned by the Chinese government, but Battlefield root 16 (root 16 equals 4) is still searchable unhindered, it's now gone on bilibili because Battlefield is officially in, so naturally it needs to delete its black history, you don't really think "Jingjie is still alive !"(金杰活了！) is humorous, right?

If you look around the world, it's better to say that the whole world of entertainment is not very good. American productions are so laced with American political correctness that they've become anything but filming tights. The only ones I've found okay in the last two years are 68 Whiskey and the first season of Love, Death & Robots, the former being cut short by veterans groups protesting the latter's second and third seasons were a dud.

Does the government of Taiwan have to have a referendum before officially declaring itself to be an independent country?