PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
For radicals, the U.S.has long breached the Red Line.They see the landing of U.S. military transport aircraft in Taiwan in 2021 as the most important breakthrough,even if it is symbolic, it means that U.S. military forces are directly entering Taiwan.

The radicals believe that they should use the time gap of the covid-19 crisis to take action,but the government has shown a disappointing performance,one of the most commonly used sarcastic phrases at the moment is: "Our bottom line is flexible to adjust and back off".

In recent years a conspiracy theory has grown up:The government is using Taiwan as a middleman to "pay tribute" to the United States.
This means that the current regime is in fact groveling to Taiwan.

Putting aside these absurd ideas,another sharp criticism argues the government is wasting its political credibility,they need to remember that their inaction will be recorded in history,this vacillating attitude is unacceptable.

Radicals believe China is rapidly losing its mobilization capacity:The outbreak management in Shanghai this year was poor and chaotic,the whole of China paid the price for Shanghai,Shanghai has exposed many problems and scandals, but few officials have been punished.
Dependence on GDP growth, protection of one's political status, and the need to maintain an image are seriously disrupting normal anti-epidemic efforts,Shanghai has even become an area that cannot be publicly blamed,these irresponsible bureaucrats have chewed up China and no one can shake this interest group.

Due to the degradation of management capacity, both unified war and post-war governance will be impossible.
Do you also hold this views? If so why? And why not?
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
I still have things to do, so it's hard to translate each of these people's articles, so I'll give a representative character directly:
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Of course, some people think it's just selling anxiety.
I read, seems to be someone without much social maturity. goes on and on about how every time China says that there's warning of this and that, nothing happened. Says 透支政治资本 and,拿事涉国本的问题来放狠话, 放完之后又多次不了了之。

This guy simply doesn't understand politics or have much social maturity. US says this all the time.

There was a red line in Syria. It was ignored. Nothing happened.

There was a red line in Ukraine. Russia ignored it. Nothing happened.

They were going to fix inflation. Inflation is worse than ever.

They were going to give Americans back all the money that China took. They didn't get a penny back.

They were going to punish China for COVID. Where is the punishment?

拿事涉国本的问题来放狠话, 放完之后又多次不了了之。Perfect description of US actions, not Chinese.

If this is the worst of the radicals then there's nothing to worry about. Just a few immature people who don't know how the world actually works.
 

Coalescence

Senior Member
Registered Member
I read, seems to be someone without much social maturity. goes on and on about how every time China says that there's warning of this and that, nothing happened. Says 透支政治资本 and,拿事涉国本的问题来放狠话, 放完之后又多次不了了之。

This guy simply doesn't understand politics or have much social maturity. US says this all the time.

There was a red line in Syria. It was ignored. Nothing happened.

There was a red line in Ukraine. Russia ignored it. Nothing happened.

They were going to fix inflation. Inflation is worse than ever.

They were going to give Americans back all the money that China took. They didn't get a penny back.

They were going to punish China for COVID. Where is the punishment?

拿事涉国本的问题来放狠话, 放完之后又多次不了了之。Perfect description of US actions, not Chinese.

If this is the worst of the radicals then there's nothing to worry about. Just a few immature people who don't know how the world actually works.
To be fair, he did call them radicals, but the question is why is he even sharing this in the first place, this has nothing to with PLA's strategy in a Taiwan contingency or even a good evidence/analysis of China's mobilization capabilities and political will. This just makes me think he shares the view of these so called radicals.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
To be fair, he did call them radicals, but the question is why is he even sharing this in the first place, this has nothing to with PLA's strategy in a Taiwan contingency or even a good evidence/analysis of China's mobilization capabilities and political will. This just makes me think he shares the view of these so called radicals.
you know these radicals, based on what I read of them, look to me like they're very impatient people who want a demonstration of national power to satisfy their egos. Sounds like many Republicans in the US who are angry about China this, China that. In real life, both are considered outside the mainstream public opinion.

To me, what I see is that when both sides are unsatisfied, it merely means that the balance of power is too even.

All I have to say is, wait and see. If US escalates in Taiwan after this, then the radicals will be proven right. I somehow doubt that they will escalate.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
I read, seems to be someone without much social maturity. goes on and on about how every time China says that there's warning of this and that, nothing happened. Says 透支政治资本 and,拿事涉国本的问题来放狠话, 放完之后又多次不了了之。

This guy simply doesn't understand politics or have much social maturity. US says this all the time.

There was a red line in Syria. It was ignored. Nothing happened.

There was a red line in Ukraine. Russia ignored it. Nothing happened.

They were going to fix inflation. Inflation is worse than ever.

They were going to give Americans back all the money that China took. They didn't get a penny back.

They were going to punish China for COVID. Where is the punishment?

拿事涉国本的问题来放狠话, 放完之后又多次不了了之。Perfect description of US actions, not Chinese.

If this is the worst of the radicals then there's nothing to worry about. Just a few immature people who don't know how the world actually works.
More like drop outs numb nuts or people being paid by the $300 million propaganda and disinformation anti-China fund.

These folks just love to complain for the sake of complaining.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
I still have things to do, so it's hard to translate each of these people's articles, so I'll give a representative character directly:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Of course, some people think it's just selling anxiety.
Here, friend, perhaps you need to read the American perspective coming from a retired U.S. Army Colonel, now professor Andrew Bacevich on how the super duper power is actually losing it's power and influence on what's essentially their supposed backyard Pacific countries.

Who Lost Fiji? - Responsible Statecraft
 

zhangjim

Junior Member
Registered Member
To be fair, he did call them radicals, but the question is why is he even sharing this in the first place, this has nothing to with PLA's strategy in a Taiwan contingency or even a good evidence/analysis of China's mobilization capabilities and political will. This just makes me think he shares the view of these so called radicals.
I also just want to provide some current thinking in society.
The worrying thing is that this is not just a few demagogues chattering away on the internet.I can see in my daily life some people whining after seeing related news.
Some old people who can't even use their cell phones well are complaining about why they should give money to the Taiwanese to buy American weapons,an old man lying in bed with his life in danger asks his children if the motherland has achieved reunification.Even my father, when he saw news of diplomatic protests on TV, would angrily change the channel, saying angrily what was the point of protesting and why no military action had been taken.

These people can not understand the strategically ambitious visions, but are quite dissatisfied with such a poor status quo.This idea does not need to be encouraged by some people, more like a spontaneous formation.

I don't think the internal voice is ignored when discussing strategic decisions,even if China is not at the mercy of votes like the United States.
 

Coalescence

Senior Member
Registered Member
I also just want to provide some current thinking in society.
The worrying thing is that this is not just a few demagogues chattering away on the internet.I can see in my daily life some people whining after seeing related news.
Some old people who can't even use their cell phones well are complaining about why they should give money to the Taiwanese to buy American weapons,an old man lying in bed with his life in danger asks his children if the motherland has achieved reunification.Even my father, when he saw news of diplomatic protests on TV, would angrily change the channel, saying angrily what was the point of protesting and why no military action had been taken.

These people can not understand the strategically ambitious visions, but are quite dissatisfied with such a poor status quo.This idea does not need to be encouraged by some people, more like a spontaneous formation.

I don't think the internal voice is ignored when discussing strategic decisions,even if China is not at the mercy of votes like the United States.
When it comes to foreign policy decisions, most government isn't swayed by the sentiments of population and usually its the least of the people's concern when it comes to the legitimacy of the government. You'll get people from all sides being pissed off at their current government for not taking a hardline stance against their opponents, like we see with Republicans on Biden "being soft" on China and some Russians wanting Putin to bomb the hell out of Ukraine, but they'll just forget about it the next day and has little to no effect on their strategic decisions.
 
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