PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
I slept too late yesterday, and my biological clock has made my wake-up time a regular one. I have things to do in the morning, so I'm not going back to bed, so I might as well take advantage of this time to talk more.
Your personal schedule is not necessary or interesting. This is a forum and it's understood that people log in whenever they want.
The emergence of good things will praise the whole, the emergence of bad things will be treated differently, which in my opinion is undoubtedly a double standard.The fortunate thing about this incident is that it got enough exposure, but I don't know if the mistake will be corrected, after all, this is a tens of billions of debt crisis.
No, it's not a double standard, it's common sense. The person/entity who did it is at fault; is that too difficult a concept for you? In a police department where there are 20 officers and a chief, if they maintain the city at peace, they and the chief are all to be commended. If one of them went crazy and murdered someone, then he is to be jailed and executed, NOT HIS WHOLE TEAM.
Sir, I don't want to make a personal attack,but these words are just too generic and useless.
Saying my post isn't funny when it obviously wasn't trying to be is generic and useless.
People need to live and support their families,this matter is not a great contribution and sacrifice,this is a vicious economic crime of illegal misappropriation of deposits.

With 400,000 victims in just one region, what kind of disaster would it be if there were a nationwide outbreak?What rhetoric can you use to convince these people to give up their property?
Blame the local government, not the central government that prohibited it. You are like a mad dog that bites everything.
Optimism is necessary, but this year it's really important to stay vigilant.This place is not suitable for too much discussion of such non-military related topics,
You keep saying that but you keep replying and you started the topic. Know what irony is?
but I think it's important to remind those who envision their strategies with positive optimism in mind:The reason China failed to take military action was not to wait for a better time,simply because they are stuck in a quagmire of internal governance that they cannot extricate themselves from.
Take military action against the ROC? They have the power to do it today, but it gets better every day. So if they don't push for it now, why not wait?
I'd like to say more about military affairs.
When you look back at history, you will be surprised by the condition of the army.
In the most dangerous 1990s, China's nuclear weapons deterrent capability could be completely ignored,the most important DF-5 missile is limited by funding and its performance is not stable.

If SSBN with only symbolic meaning is not considered,so the worst estimate is that nuclear missiles with deterrent capability are only in single digits.
Secrecy saved China,but soon a lot of key information was revealed to the Americans by the traitors, and the most significant loss was that the initial design of the DF-31 was scrapped because of the leak.

The lack of military action in 1996 was undoubtedly correct, but it became an important basis for the subsequent arrogant provocations of the Taiwanese independence faction: they think that the CPC would not dare to act at all!
This is not relevent to today. China is ready today, not in 1996.
Trump is arrogant and aggressive towards China,but he treats Putin with deference.
There is a political pull to this, but I like his straightforwardness: The United States will only negotiate with adversaries capable of destroying the United States(I've forgotten the source of the original quote, but only the general meaning)

Nuclear deterrence is the most important bottom card to solve the Taiwan issue, which is well known to everyone.We all know very well what those "wind turbines" in the desert really are.
No problem, but you are stating the obvious that China must have an excellent nuclear deterrent. Also, Trump is racist and he has a white power fantasy and Russia is actually a pure white power unlike the US. That's why Ivanka's name is Slavic.
But another unseen danger is masked by propaganda:Political Corruption.
Before punishing Guo and Xu, two senior military officials, we knew nothing about the severity of the corrosion of the army.
Officials tout our military's ability to defend our national interests, but the facts revealed are alarming.
Selling off military jobs and making training a formality to avoid risk,it was not until the fall of two generals that people within the military dared to speak the truth that they had not dared to disclose in the past.
Catch problems and fix them, which is the CCP improving. This is awesome that it was found out, the corruption rooted, and fixed. Of course it because public after it was finished; did you expect the military to leak news to the media about these issues while they were still being discovered?

The US found that there are people working at NORAD who cheated on their tests and don't know how to launch nukes if given the orders. Same thing, found out and I assume fixed but the US sucks at fixing things so the confidence is much lower there.
The final military reforms cut off the military from economic activities and put an end to the history of commercial activities by the military.
Decisions made in the 1980s ended up taking us almost 20 years to clean up the situation.
2000 China was an insect compared to 2022 China, and the US isn't even there yet regarding decommercializing its military.
Before the reform, General Jin Yi Nan once revealed an amazing fact: the knowledge level of senior generals in the early 21st century was ridiculously deficient, and they lacked the most basic vigilance to the external environment.
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As you can see from the text(Page 3), these generals do not know why the wings of carrier based aircraft are folded, nor can they tell the difference between APC and IFV!
So we're complaining about the past full throttle now? LOL You can put all of your posts together to show how fast China and the PLA has grown.
I was young at the time, and the rampant independence movement in Taiwan was at its peak.PLA is one of the few groups we can trust,General Zhang Zhaozhong once showed a high degree of alertness to the situation in an interview,but many people just look at him as a meme.
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This is a thought-provoking article, General Zhang has an extremely sober understanding of the situation.
We can trust the people's army, but it's hard to say whether the rest of the people are so sober and vigilant.Many of the problems that exist today also stem from this reason.
I was young in 2009 too but I knew and all my Chinese college friends knew, it was to take the ROC or die trying. I don't see the possibility of failure with a trustworthy PLA and a capable nuclear deterrent... and definitely not with a determined Chinese population.
Today the building of military forces has reached a satisfactory point,
Thanks for acknowledging the PLA's progress but they are satisfied with nothing, which is why China's military is the fastest-expanding one in the world.
the U.S. can no longer maintain the so-called "balance" by selling weapons, but today's arms sales are still a strong act of provocation.
Well, you know, China's gotten so strong now that every US election is about "What are you gonna do about China?"
But looking back, I have to think so: many problems were cleverly covered up by the propaganda that.Defense is very vulnerable for a long time.
There is a joke widely spread: use me in the first battle and bear the consequences(首战用我,后果自负)
It's good to learn a little bit about the military, he can make me realize how dangerous the past is and how harsh the reality is underneath the propaganda that was once spoken so loudly.
Cool recap of the past but I'm not sure what that was supposed to contribute to a conversation about China's modern strategy in Taiwan which you derailed into your political complaints about the CCP while acknowledging that every other government sucks more.

I've read your other complaints and I can simply say this again: it's all comparative. Nobody can be perfect but one can be the best and that is the CCP. You're not satisfied with that, so the world is your food court; go eat wherever you want. But it's poor manner to keep eating at the Chinese restaurant serving you the best food in the world while complaining incessantly that it all tastes like shit while all other food tastes like super shit and ultra shit.
 

zhangjim

Junior Member
Registered Member
你写了很多关于中国国内问题的文章。

所以我的问题是,你为什么认为美国和台湾没有同等或更糟糕的国内问题?

我之前问过你这个问题,你无法给出任何答案。
我觉得我好像离题太远了,所以我会集中回答一些,而不是过多地谈论这个。
台湾问题是少数让我失去理智和情绪影响的话题之一,我同意一位网友的说法,台湾问题根本不是中美问题,而是中国内政。
从目前的情况来看,统一问题取决于高层是否愿意承担重大历史责任以及对外依存度,但第一点最为重要。

对台优惠政策是一种拖延战术,在自身准备不足的情况下,利用足够的利益来拖延台独进程。

然而,这意味着应该向台湾人民提供宝贵的社会资源。一开始,人们可以认为这是和平统一的必要贡献。然而,随着情况的发展,我们发现我们错了。
台湾左翼政党领袖公开抨击这是不可能的策略。这些利益被用来拉拢商人和资本家,而真正的工人却无法从中受益。这不是CPC应该做的事情。
“如果社会主义制度不能实行,不如不统一,不如统一”(根据我的记忆写,请帮忙指正具体出处)

不出所料,很快我们都意识到这无助于和平统一:台湾人在电视节目中公开宣称,大陆人是一群傻瓜。他们宁愿让水果在地里腐烂,也不愿购买台湾水果。两岸一旦统一,我们就失去这样的优惠政策,不能统一。

人们意识到这是一种无用的做法,但这种做法仍在继续。人们不得不怀疑这种做法的真实意图。这也意味着,中共过去引以为豪的“群众路线”战略在统一工作中没有发挥作用。

我讨厌谈论国家之间谁更糟糕,我认为竞争应该是让每个人都提高自己,但不幸的是,除了军事进步,我们在吹嘘谁犯的错误更少。美国人有他们的困难,我们有我们的困难。
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你能列举一些吗,我觉得你说的很有趣。

我国的一个缺点是缺乏社会矛盾的泄压阀。文化产品应该作为化解不满的工具,可惜政府总是以不合理的政治正确为由禁止一切。恐怖片不能有血腥元素和超自然元素,也不能拍反映刑侦方式的电视剧,为了防止少年早恋,把漫画中的“喜欢/爱”全部删掉,非历史小说中不允许有真实国家组织的名字,以免造成不必要的外交和政治麻烦,过去的历史是不可改变的。任何能改变历史潮流的小说或游戏,尤其是与中共密切相关的历史时期,都不允许出现。不允许选择“贼”和“强盗”
听完之后是不是觉得窒息?
CPC在网络中有一个昵称叫“邪神”。

于是颓废开始盛行,一大群人笑着看着共产党出丑。我这么批评共产党是因为我还在乎它,更多的人在冷眼等待现政权垮台,彻底洗牌所有社会。地层。
那些忠实的支持者被视为傻瓜,“政府喜欢制裁这些爱国者。利维坦不需要你的支持”。

这些灰心丧气的家伙只是非常积极地攻击政权支持者,希望能尽快逃往或来世重生到社会福利更好的北欧国家。

党本来有文化建设的义务和责任,现在只有粗略的限制管理。
生活如此艰难,他们甚至无法偿还抵押贷款。为什么要剥夺他们唯一的乐趣?
因此,文化部也赢得了“文化焚烧部”的“名誉”。以官方身份发布禁令,势必比使用“民间协会”管理承受更多的愤怒和批评。
所有的不满都会针对现有的系统,但当局似乎总是觉得他们坐的炸弹不够强大。
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你现在在中国可以过上很好的生活,但如果你是政府决定为了国家利益而被压扁的人之一,你真的没有办法。
所以在过去的几年里,我对任何痴迷于权力的人产生了极度的厌恶。他们可能只是为了节省一点成本而选择让微不足道的人付出巨大的代价,甚至不给勋章。
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台湾政府是不是要公投才能正式宣布独立?
理论上,他们需要彻底结束中华民国的法律地位,摒弃一切与“中国”有关的历史因素。
 

Sleepyjam

Junior Member
Registered Member
The military is a group full of secrets for the public,much of the information we get relies on official propaganda, and many people do not have the expertise to judge the true level of the military.

The Chinese government's propaganda has always had a tendency to be seriously detached from the people and reality.But we don't know enough about the military, and the PLA has a good record in the past, which many people will take official propaganda at face value.
But wait until you are exposed to some knowledge before you realize that the Chinese government's propaganda capabilities are dismal, and that the PLA capabilities before military reform were not commensurate with the propaganda, and that this exaggerated image is further exaggerated by internet novels and crude TV dramas.
While China's domestic military forums are happy about the constant flow of new equipment, most are ignorant of the real risks that exist within.
You are not making logical sense. So the military is full of secrets but propaganda exposes them and exaggerates them? How would it be a secrecy then if it’s exposed even if it was exaggerated propaganda? What makes you think you have the expertise to judge the true level of the military while others including many here don’t especially with the “we don’t know enough about the military”.
 
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zhangjim

Junior Member
Registered Member
You are not making logical sense. So the military is full of secrets but propaganda exposes them and exaggerates them? How would it be a secrecy then if it’s exposed even if it was exaggerated propaganda? What makes you think you have the expertise to judge the true level of the military while others including many here don’t especially with the “we don’t know enough about the military”.
Now I'm depressed.....
This forum seems to have strict restrictions on the modification and deletion of speeches, which leads me to post a lot of Chinese content with strange grammar.

I mean, the army is not an institution that is open to the public at will. Their real combat effectiveness is an important secret.When the government makes absurd propaganda, most of them are closely related to our lives, so we can easily know which parts are exaggerated.

Ordinary people can't tell the difference between tanks and self-propelled guns,those who grew up in a peaceful environment only know about war in film and television works and news.
We don't know whether our army can meet the severe challenges. We can only trust the official propaganda.
We had a lot of problems in the past, and they were very serious.

Publicity can stabilize people's emotions,but it must be admitted that these propaganda are far from the truth,when you look back at the grim situation on both sides of the Taiwan Strait in the early 21st century, you will be surprised to find that before the military reform, our army was much more fragile and clumsy than we thought.
All this must be combined with the era background of low military investment for a long time,only in this way can people realize that the situation is more dangerous than expected.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
我觉得我好像离题太远了,所以我会集中回答一些,而不是过多地谈论这个。
台湾问题是少数让我失去理智和情绪影响的话题之一,我同意一位网友的说法,台湾问题根本不是中美问题,而是中国内政。
从目前的情况来看,统一问题取决于高层是否愿意承担重大历史责任以及对外依存度,但第一点最为重要。

对台优惠政策是一种拖延战术,在自身准备不足的情况下,利用足够的利益来拖延台独进程。

然而,这意味着应该向台湾人民提供宝贵的社会资源。一开始,人们可以认为这是和平统一的必要贡献。然而,随着情况的发展,我们发现我们错了。
台湾左翼政党领袖公开抨击这是不可能的策略。这些利益被用来拉拢商人和资本家,而真正的工人却无法从中受益。这不是CPC应该做的事情。
“如果社会主义制度不能实行,不如不统一,不如统一”(根据我的记忆写,请帮忙指正具体出处)

不出所料,很快我们都意识到这无助于和平统一:台湾人在电视节目中公开宣称,大陆人是一群傻瓜。他们宁愿让水果在地里腐烂,也不愿购买台湾水果。两岸一旦统一,我们就失去这样的优惠政策,不能统一。

人们意识到这是一种无用的做法,但这种做法仍在继续。人们不得不怀疑这种做法的真实意图。这也意味着,中共过去引以为豪的“群众路线”战略在统一工作中没有发挥作用。

我讨厌谈论国家之间谁更糟糕,我认为竞争应该是让每个人都提高自己,但不幸的是,除了军事进步,我们在吹嘘谁犯的错误更少。美国人有他们的困难,我们有我们的困难。
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还是建议用英文,方便论坛的国际观众。

其实我觉得台湾问题归根结底是中米冲突最突出的体现,是一场决定世界能否走出殖民时代的斗争,甚至可能是决定人类未来的战争。

台湾政权的存在是帝国主义的后遗症。如果不是米国在1950年干涉国共内战,说不定台湾早就统一了。

就算50年代没有用武力解决台湾问题,如果之后的70年间没有米国插手,对台威逼利诱说不定也能解决台湾问题。

然而,米国对台湾政权的精神和物质支持导致他们无视大陆给他们的优惠,也无视大陆的警告。所以,问题的根本还是米国,这也是为什么每当台湾海峡出现危机的时候,中国直接跟米国谈判,而不是台湾。台湾问题跟中国内政无关,甚至跟台湾无关。这就是为什么我一直强调米国内政 - 因为台湾问题实际上就是米国问题。
 

supersnoop

Major
Registered Member
Does the government of Taiwan have to have a referendum before officially declaring itself to be an independent country?

1. Supermajority vote (>2/3) in Legislative Yuan to be able to hold referendum/plebiscite vote
2. Majority vote of population with majority of eligible voters turning out

So those 18 year olds better start singing up if that’s what they want
 

Sleepyjam

Junior Member
Registered Member
Now I'm depressed.....
This forum seems to have strict restrictions on the modification and deletion of speeches, which leads me to post a lot of Chinese content with strange grammar.

I mean, the army is not an institution that is open to the public at will. Their real combat effectiveness is an important secret.When the government makes absurd propaganda, most of them are closely related to our lives, so we can easily know which parts are exaggerated.

Ordinary people can't tell the difference between tanks and self-propelled guns,those who grew up in a peaceful environment only know about war in film and television works and news.
We don't know whether our army can meet the severe challenges. We can only trust the official propaganda.
We had a lot of problems in the past, and they were very serious.

Publicity can stabilize people's emotions,but it must be admitted that these propaganda are far from the truth,when you look back on the grim situation on both sides of the Taiwan Strait in the early 21st century, you will be relieved that before the military reform, our army was much more fragile and clumsy than we thought.

Duh that’s why it’s a secret. Proper propaganda isn’t going to expose secrets. I don’t know where you get your Chinese propaganda. From what I have seen they are mostly vague and not absurd at all.

Despite past problems the PLA has proven its self on the battlefield.

Its still easily 21st century and I don’t see the situation grim at all in term the military between mainland and Taiwan. Unless you think many in the west are also brainwashed by this so called absurd Chinese propaganda.
 

zhangjim

Junior Member
Registered Member
Cool recap of the past but I'm not sure what that was supposed to contribute to a conversation about China's modern strategy in Taiwan which you derailed into your political complaints about the CCP while acknowledging that every other government sucks more.
In this passage, I mainly want to review the tense years in the past.During this period, the military capability was very limited,compared with today, peace is based solely on political deterrence,military action is very difficult.
Now the biggest obstacle is no longer military,but internal stability factors and trust and support for the government,when the independents hurry to eliminate all traces of China, I don't think there is much time to wait.But the internal stratification and tearing are intensifying,People are deeply disappointed with the wealth myth that "hard work will lead to success",those ambitious undertakings are losing their appeal and people are paying more attention to their personal lives.

When you find that there is a great difference between your heroic words and your actual abilities, you will obviously draw two conclusions: rivers of blood, or no conflict at all.

Although publicity can soothe emotions, it will inevitably lead most people into wrong strength judgments.When the military preparations have been completed, these people will think: why not take action?
Although I had become a military enthusiast at that time, I could not realize that "people" were unpredictable factors.In addition, there are some more advanced technical problemsand these invisible things are covered up in propaganda
You must understand that military education in our country is not flourishing,after the full outbreak of the war in Ukraine, a large number of Internet users teaching finance and law suddenly appeared on the Internet and began to explain the military. The content was full of mistakes and omissions, all of which were exaggerating how Ukraine launched a powerful counterattack.
Maybe I'll introduce those fantastic war plans when I have a chance:Including the crazy plan to fill the Taiwan Strait.
还是建议用英文,方便论坛的国际观众。
This is actually an operational error,domestic forums are very different from this,I don't quite understand many functions.
I don't know how to delete the wrong content. It's difficult for the network to connect to this website normally.This wastes me a lot of time, and I delay the time of nucleic acid detection.
 

Sleepyjam

Junior Member
Registered Member
People are deeply disappointed with the wealth myth that "hard work will lead to success",those ambitious undertakings are losing their appeal and people are paying more attention to their personal lives.
I don’t know what kind of Chinese people you have met but Chinese people have always valued education as the pathway to success and wealth not merely hard work.
 
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