PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

Spartan95 said:

US has pulled out of Iraq already. Military contractors remain.

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Finn McCool said:

The Gulf kingdoms would never do such a thing. For one, it's just not feasible. Iran has a bigger population than all of them combined if I'm not mistaken. Secondly, the Gulf sheiks would never do heavy lifting in any sort of war, it's not their nature, they're cowards when it comes down to it, made weak by decades of outrageous wealth. They let other people fight for them, whether it be the Americans or jihadists.

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plawolf said:

If the Pentagon had drafted such a plan, it would have been binned as soon as anyone of import read it. Regardless of outcome, trying to take Taiwan from the PLA would require a blood price America will never be willing to pay for someone else without China re-enacting Pearl Harbor first, and the Chinese would never make such a base mistake.

The Americans could not be less keen to put boots on the ground against tiny, weak, divided Libya, how do you imagine they would suddenly find the appetite to try and take an island from the Chinese on their doorstep? And shortly after the PLA has just taken the island?

Sure, that would mean the infrastructure would likely be all shot to hell and make logistics difficult, but OTOH, Taiwan at that time would have probably the highest concentration of troops and equipment anywhere in China, and all of that would be the very best the PLA has, who have just been battle hardened and probably have massively high moral because of their recent victory. And you want to invade that? Trying to invade mainland China will probably be easier.

America would risk, and almost certainly take, huge casualties just trying to get their amphibious ships into a position to attempt take make a landing, if enough survive that far to make an invasion feasible. They would take massive losses trying to make a landing, and far more to push the PLA off Taiwan.

It is highly questionable if even the US has such military might without having to turn this into a full blooded war that would require the complete re-orientation of both national economies towards full scale support of the war effort and starting a draft, since America's standing military assets, munitions and personnel numbers would almost certainly not be sufficient to see the job done given the likely attrition rates such an effort would require.

If war breaks out across the Taiwan strait, China will not back down, they will re-direct their entire economy for war if that is what is required, and the only way America can win against that is to follow suit.

Even if by some insanity America was willing to take the tens if not hundreds of thousands in casualties such an undertaking would likely cost them if history of what happened the last time they faced the PLA in open warfare was any judge (and the gap between the Chinese and American militaries have narrowed exponentially since then), they will not be willing to re-direct their economy for war.

America trying to take Taiwan back from China has never been seriously considered as a possibility because not only will attempting it cost far far more than America will ever be willing to pay in treasure and blood, but also because there is a very good chance they will loose if they tried it, thus is is a possibility so remote as to not be worth considering.

The odds are probably higher that an asteroid would end us all tomorrow and make this point moot.

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Red___Sword said:

wolf,



Let's try to make sense out of non-sense, #155 is a little bit non-sense, but we can still trying to find some sense out of it.

He trying to indicate that US won't let it go easily even PRC has retaken Taiwan islands (islands, not only single island), that, I say make some sense.

- China is going to face some long-term blockade in the name of whatever justice;

- They can drop CIA opertives inside almost-no-man-land of Tibet and Xinjiang to stir up rebellion at the 50's, they can surely drop some yellow color skined "dissenters" at the population densed Taiwan islands to make some unrest over the just war-torned Chinese citizens.

- On top of blockade (didn't say it would be very much effective), sicne CBGs vitually have an "don't mess me up" effect, they can harrass / bully what ever they seem fit, judging by China won't fire the first shot, and won't even actually retaliate IF being "mis-fired" by first shot, in order to legally make US stay out of war (with China), US CBGs REALLY CAN make a mess. Not to mention the "U" circle military "outposts" US has erected surrounding China...

- Hard to say the trillions of dollars of US debt in China's hand is a weapon or fragile glass at this point of time. US can't deny it outright for the bigger picture; China can't wave it as if something hammering US for this couldn't being a better excuse / motivation for US to get the hand in Taiwan crysis.

- There's an OT discussion of Japan's role in the stage of Asia nextdoor (another thread). Thing is, supporting China, if Japan getting out of hand, like WWII; supporting Japan, if China "getting out of hand", that's a defacto policy by the US decision makers, despite during cold war or not - and it somewhat makes sense (to those believers at least). Japan being suppressed too long, it is time to bring up China-Japan borderline issues to stir up Japan's fear and effectively support them both military and political. A "normalized" Japan fitting the shoes. Nothing better to let they fight each other to do the work for the US.

....

In all, it dose make sense, that China will suffer, if China takes Taiwan by force, although I have no doubt China will endure and revive.

It is why I simply shrug on this whole thread at first place - Taiwan ain't going anywhere, yet China got so much to gain, by 博弈 chess play over the globe, people just having an undying affection to "see some actions" among Taiwan Strait - Why would PRC fall for it, at first place?

PS.: Who brings up (it never officially) "Trade Taiwan for Iran" theory? - It must be the one who is more desperate, right?

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icbeodragon said:

Since when does a potential casualty count prevent the Pentagon from making a plan? You expect me to believe the Pentagon doesn't have war plans detailed for a liberation of an occupied Taiwan? More telling, you believe that?

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I can't tell if you're being serious when you say it has never been seriously considered, it is the Pentagon's job (or rather some staff in the Pentagon) to seriously consider that scenario!

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As for the PLA basing their battle plan entirely on winning before the US military can get on scene, well where did you get that idea?

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plawolf said:

As I said, if they bothered to actually go to the effort of drawing up a serious battle plan, it would be dismissed as a non-starter as soon as anyone of import saw the casualty projections.

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plawolf said:

There are infinite scenarios and only finite time and resources to make projections and plans, the Pentagon needs some sort of basic criteria to decide which scenarios require in-depth analysis and which ones should not be pursued after the most broad overview.

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plawolf said:

As for the PLA basing their battle plan entirely on winning before the US military can get on scene,well where did you get that idea?
Have you seen what the PLA has been spending their resources and the scale and scope of their efforts? The majority of their newest and most high-priority weapons are not even necessary or suitable for purely a Taiwan scenario.

The PLA would prefer to get things sorted before the US can muster enough force to risk getting involved, but they are hardly banking on it.

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Apparently from the same area that we hear that the US will end hostilities after Taiwan falls.

Seriously, because at that point time is on the US' side with regards to the fighting and other consequences of fighting.

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montyp165 said:

Seeing how someone like qaddafi is hanging on against superior firepower for months on end, Russia or China by comparison not only would have the wherewithal to fight toe-to-toe but win a prolonged fight. This isn't 2001 anymore, and the shift in power will only increase with time. This isn't even including mobilizing SCO resources to counter actions by any US-led coalitions either.

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icbeodragon said:

Libya and Taiwan are utterly different situations, with the US playing a different role in both.

The US has demonstrated the capability to fight for very prolonged periods. China's capability is relatively untested. This isn't 2001, but the US is still more than capable of fighting a prolonged fight and winning, especially if the reasons are clear cut.


Russia would help China re: Taiwan?

India would?

if not them who else would even matter?

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