PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
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Spartan95
Junior Member
1. USN has almost always had a CSG on-station in the Indian Ocean since the Cold War.
2. Why is there a need for AWACS if there are no enemy fighters?
3. Why do F22 need to go into PRC airspace? Defending ROC airspace is good enough.
Private military contractors are the boots on the ground, so that the military boots on the ground can go elsewhere.
1. All military forces in RoK are under the command of the US.
2. Tanker + AWACS + fighter from RoK and Japan can provide air defense of ROC.
Lol!
That's the 1st time I see someone call the US 7th fleet "a few picket ships"!
They currently have 2 CSGs. And that's not counting the amphibs and marines:
Half the USN? The 5th fleet is sufficient for that:
Because President Obama pledged dialogue and diplomacy during his Presidential election campaign.
This is a matter of national survival for the Israelis. Do you think they will even ask for the weapons to bomb the nuclear facility if they are not sure?
The Israelis have done it at Osirak. They did it a few years back in Syria. And now, they are asking to do it again in Iran. They are the only country with a proven record of strikes on nuclear facilities, and you are doubting that?!
According to this list, there is 1 abandoned and 4 lost radioactive sources between 1981 and 2000:
So much for "properly accounted for and safely disposed of".
Oh, and that does not include black market trade.
1. Terrorists have made a name for themselves with Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs)
2. IED + radioactive source = dirty bomb (no weaponisation required)
If you have been following the "Global War on Terror", than you will know that a dirty bomb is the worst nightmare because it is actually not that hard to make. There are more than enough articles available on this topic.
The list I provided () shows:
1. The radioactive sources are lethal (not "extremely weak radioactive sources").
2. They can be dismantled and transported easily enough, as proven by the Cesium Radiation Dispersal Disaster in Goiania, Brazil (not "the size of cars and weigh in the tons")
Red___Sword
Junior Member
It is interesting and opinion-inputting to watch this fight wages on.
By "fight" I mean the SDF thread, not the would-be-breathtaking-clash-of-Titans, over Taiwan Strait.
By "opinion-inputting" I mean the chances to peek "Wow, they though like THAT!"
By "interesting" I mean "what you gonna do? They are not going to wage a war to actually prove your points."
By "fight" I mean the SDF thread, not the would-be-breathtaking-clash-of-Titans, over Taiwan Strait.
By "opinion-inputting" I mean the chances to peek "Wow, they though like THAT!"
By "interesting" I mean "what you gonna do? They are not going to wage a war to actually prove your points."
I know, but the US is virtually to only political and military friend of the Taiwan regime. The US has in this way as much influence in Taipei as in Tokyo and Seoul and will keep it until these countries change sides which, because of the US influence, will be difficult to achieve.
Those "Boys" Are Noy Going To Taiwan!
Windows Translation:
Armor rolling, wheel ROAR. On August 19, a certain armored Regiment of Nanjing military region to armored vehicle loading and unloading train. Reporters at the scene saw, under 12 armored chariots in the Commander's guidance, run over the beach, across the waves, to the cabin quickly into an intense and orderly manner, only 8 minutes and 46 seconds to successfully boarded the ship, creating a new record of the regiment. - d x/ h% v+ j O) A6 j
! V% _+ t! @; A) H' G* T In recent years, the transition mode of fighting power generated in some danger and difficult training subjects and hard work, actively explore new methods of armored forces under the condition of information and training methods, overall combat capability of forces being promoted.
W China military Photo Center Stringer Mu Ruilin perturbation
More Like, Going To South China Sea?
Windows Translation:
Armor rolling, wheel ROAR. On August 19, a certain armored Regiment of Nanjing military region to armored vehicle loading and unloading train. Reporters at the scene saw, under 12 armored chariots in the Commander's guidance, run over the beach, across the waves, to the cabin quickly into an intense and orderly manner, only 8 minutes and 46 seconds to successfully boarded the ship, creating a new record of the regiment. - d x/ h% v+ j O) A6 j
! V% _+ t! @; A) H' G* T In recent years, the transition mode of fighting power generated in some danger and difficult training subjects and hard work, actively explore new methods of armored forces under the condition of information and training methods, overall combat capability of forces being promoted.
W China military Photo Center Stringer Mu Ruilin perturbation
More Like, Going To South China Sea?
Pickets? I mean, my friend, really?
The US 7th fleet consists of 50-60 ships and ten seperate Task Forces. (Read up on the seventh fleet and task forces 70-79 and what they represent). If you do, I do not believe you would ever call them "pickets" again.
These forces are forward deployed to Japan and other areas (Singapore, Korea, Guam, etc.) at all times. They include at least one entire Carrier Strike Group, submraine forces in large numbers, a seprate surface action task force of cruisers and destroyers, a complete logistical support group with its escorts,, etc., and an entire Marine Amphibious expeditionary group with its escorts.
A lot of times these days, there are two carrier groups in the western pacific.
The US Airforce has large numbers of assets permanently deployed in the Western Pacific too, with significant forces on Guam.
The PRC would have to make a pre-emptive strike on Guam to hope of staving off significant, immediate US air force reinforcements in the area. They would have to defeat the US Navy forces there too.
Air force reinforcemnts within hours, large US Navy aircraft crrier reinforcements beginning the next day.
If the PRC conducted a surprise attack to try and defeat these forces, I can promise you the US would not "stay out of the war," The US has a particular hot streak about surprise attacks and ensuring that whoever perpetrates them are made to pay a very steep and long lasting price so they are not tempted to do it again. I say that simply to let you know the mentality. The best way to ensure that the US will respond in a long lasting and very dedicated mode is to conduct a surprise attack against it.
F-22's if not deployed at the time to Guam, can be quickly deployed there in a matter of hours, with sufficient tanker support to augment the additional numbers (in addition to the ones already there). AWACS support is already in place.
The US Armed forces that are fighting in Afghanistan and what remains in Iraq are using completely different fleets and air force groups. For the Navy it is the US Fifth Fleet and Sixth Fleets that are handling those issues (5th-Arabian/Persian and 6th-Mediteranean).
Anyhow, my point is, that though the US Armed forces are spread out...they are not weak. What they have in the Western Pacific is potent and very strong and staffed with sufficient strength for precisely a contingency for either Taiwan or S. Korea...or both.
The PLAN and PLAAF would have to defeat those forces in place before they could hope to achieve the type of superiority that would ensure a quick victory before even more US forces could arrive in the area, starting with the US 3rd fleet stationed on the US Pacific coast and Hawaii.
FYI, the current major vessels (which would include their escorts) underway and deployed right now is:
Carriers:
- USS George Washington (CVN 73) - 7th Fleet
- USS John C. Stennis (CVN 74) - Pacific Ocean
- USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76) - 3rd Fleet
- USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77) - 5th Fleet
Amphibious Warfare Ships:
- USS Boxer (LHD 4) - port visit Phuket, Thailand
- USS Bataan (LHD 5) - 5th Fleet
Amphibious Command Ships:
- USS Blue Ridge (LCC 19) - port visit Busan, Korea
So, right now there are two carrier groups in the Western Pacific, and two Marine Amphibious groups...which is not unusual.
There are 37 nuclear subs currently underway in addition to this...but they do not list where.
This type of info is generally available on the US Navy's site.
Those are nice pics of the PLAN amphibiuos vessels in action. Thanks for posting them.
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Geographer
Junior Member
Good write-up, Jeff. The Chinese nationalists who think they can knock the U.S. military out of the Pacific in a pre-emptive strike need a reality check in a big way.
Even if China succeeded in neutralizing all existing U.S. military assets in the Pacific, (which would be very difficult), it would also guarantee America's entry into the war. American entry into the war guarantee's China's defeat, even if they defeated Taiwan in the few weeks it would take for the U.S. to counter-attack. The U.S. would launch an amphibious invasion of Taiwan and push out the PLA.
China's best bet for victory in a conventional war is to do everything possible to keep the U.S. out of the war. While Jeff and others may disagree, I believe if China attacked Taiwan tomorrow, the U.S. would not militarily intervene. Public criticism, sanctions, intelligence sharing, definitely, probably even military sales to the ROC, but not sending its own troops. The U.S. is too war weary to pick a fight with China, and American diplomats know how passionately the Chinese feel about Taiwan. The American public, on the other hand, is mostly indifferent and would worry most about the economic effects and effects on the stock market.
If the war dragged on, however, and a humanitarian crisis emerged and was well-publicized, the U.S. might feed a need to "do something" more. Thus it is in China's interest to end the war as quickly as possible. Virtually no method of victory is clean, save a nuclear demonstration that intimidates Taiwan's leadership into surrendering, but there are strategies that are more quick than others. A maritime siege would be a long, painful, if very effective, strategy for China.
So this all gets back to China's ace card: a nuclear demonstration. It's the only thing that could win the war quickly without drawing the U.S. into the war. The nuclear bomb could be detonated somewhere off the coast, or high in the atmosphere to have the double effects of intimidation and an EMP. Taiwan's leaders could soon capitulate realizing they face overwhelming firepower and possessed no defense.
Even if China succeeded in neutralizing all existing U.S. military assets in the Pacific, (which would be very difficult), it would also guarantee America's entry into the war. American entry into the war guarantee's China's defeat, even if they defeated Taiwan in the few weeks it would take for the U.S. to counter-attack. The U.S. would launch an amphibious invasion of Taiwan and push out the PLA.
China's best bet for victory in a conventional war is to do everything possible to keep the U.S. out of the war. While Jeff and others may disagree, I believe if China attacked Taiwan tomorrow, the U.S. would not militarily intervene. Public criticism, sanctions, intelligence sharing, definitely, probably even military sales to the ROC, but not sending its own troops. The U.S. is too war weary to pick a fight with China, and American diplomats know how passionately the Chinese feel about Taiwan. The American public, on the other hand, is mostly indifferent and would worry most about the economic effects and effects on the stock market.
If the war dragged on, however, and a humanitarian crisis emerged and was well-publicized, the U.S. might feed a need to "do something" more. Thus it is in China's interest to end the war as quickly as possible. Virtually no method of victory is clean, save a nuclear demonstration that intimidates Taiwan's leadership into surrendering, but there are strategies that are more quick than others. A maritime siege would be a long, painful, if very effective, strategy for China.
So this all gets back to China's ace card: a nuclear demonstration. It's the only thing that could win the war quickly without drawing the U.S. into the war. The nuclear bomb could be detonated somewhere off the coast, or high in the atmosphere to have the double effects of intimidation and an EMP. Taiwan's leaders could soon capitulate realizing they face overwhelming firepower and possessed no defense.