PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

plawolf said:

Iran is not going to be a push over, if the US attacked Iran, it will be a major war that will suck in the bulk of America's deployable military forces in the form of aircraft, munitions, logistical support and naval forces etc.

If China just wanted to take Taiwan at the first opportunity, then that would be the perfect time to do it.

By the time America can re-deploy its naval forces from the gulf (which would be subject to a lot more navigational chock points, giving the PLAN much better chances to finding and engaging the US carriers before they can get in theatre) or 'mobilize 1 million men' (I would love to see anyone actually try that, there would literally be blood on the streets, no that is a cold war legacy number, and will only be relevant if someone actually invades CONUS), the war would likely be over or at the least in the dying stages.

America might be willing to help Taiwan repel a Chinese attack, and that is a massive 'might' right there, but it most certainly is not ready to invade Taiwan and take it from China.

Click to expand...

Concerning the stakes at hand, I think any American intervention will be passive at best, and very short-lived. Getting involved in Taiwan puts the American public's lives at stake, economically first-hand.

Geographer said:

And what happened after 1945? Japan tripped over themselves kissing Americans' occupying feet. No one cared, ultimately. Only academics and peaceniks argue about the decision, not the mainstream of society or the political establishment. If you're looking for a precedent that an atomic attack will be condemned and vilified through history, the Nagasaki and Hiroshima bombings are not it.

Invading Taiwan conventionally is going to be ugly, no two ways about it. Demonstrating a nuclear blast off the coast, or using one against a single city and quickly inducing surrender would probably ultimately save time and lives.

Click to expand...

Not this nuking Taiwan nonsense again.

The Japanese reaction to the nuclear attack was the result of a complex number of psychological factors, far too complex to get into here. But they were for all intents and purposes a conquered people after WWII, with an occupational army, foreign governor and a systematic 're-education' program to drill into them that America is right and they were wrong, with no-one ever saying otherwise.

With the way the bleeding hearts and downright haters in the western media have been going way out of their way to negatively portray China at every opportunity, 'free' media will make sure people will see the use of nukes as an unforgivable crime.

It is truly perplexing how anyone could not see that, never mind endlessly suggest it.

Besides, China does not need to resort to the use of nukes even if America gets involved.

Taiwan has no strategic depth, and China has had a very long time to study its defenses and topography. With modern precision, long range weapons, much of Taiwan's defenses would be neutralized in the first attack that could come with as little as minutes of advanced warning.

And before anyone brings up the build up time, remember that one of the reasons Taiwan is so nervous about Chinese missiles deployed across the strait is because they can be fired, from their bases and still can hit any target they want on Taiwan.

The ground and naval forces would take a little longer to get into position, but its not like the PLA is going to be sending in landing craft and paratroopers as the opening move of an attack. It will take the PLAAF and PLAN days if not weeks to clear away enough of Taiwan's defenses for it to be safe enough to launch the amphibious assault anyways.

If they were just put on heightened alert and only started mobilizing as the first shots were fired, that would still give them plenty of time to mobilize and be ready to do their part when the time comes.

Taiwan's air force is impressive on paper, but it is highly questionable just what portion of that air force will even be able to get off the ground or land again even if they survive combat against the PLAAF since their home bases would be near, if not right at the top of the PLA's targeting list.

As every war since the Gulf War has shown, without your own air force, SAMs and AAA will only ever prove as an annoyance to enemy air power, and when the enemy has air superiority, any large scale ground forces mobilization and concentration will prove almost certainly to end in disaster for the side exposed to hostile air attacks.

With its conscript army and rich urban population not used to hardship, there are serious doubts about whether the military and people of Taiwan has the stomach or capacity for a protracted guerilla campaign. What more, the PLA is one of the few organizations in the world with a positive record on counter insurgency, a job made all the more easy by the shared language and heritage.

Taking Taiwan will be bloody and costly for China, but it will never remotely approach costly enough for China to even have the briefest thought about nuclear weapons.

Those will only be deployed if a foreign invading force penetrated deep into mainland China and it looks like the PLA is unable to stop them conventionally and they looked likely to take over the country.

There is no military power on earth, no even the US, that has that sort of military power.

@ plawolf;

You have to notice, that you may get punked by say something, while some won't, at all.

So, mind I suggest just ignore the OT efforts they tried?

Taiwan and Iran, the difference is, Taiwan won't "get away" no matter what, while the global power-shifting chances created by the (possible) Iran-crysis (let's just call it like that) will.

China is not gonna let the global power-shifting chances (if any) slip away, while the relatively "not going anywhere" Taiwan can wait.

As such described by plawolf at #140, China can do much better, (forgive the following word but look into it with COLD mind) by screw US directly, in full spectrum across all aspects (of "country vs. country" compitition, jungle rules) except military confrontation. And please thinking what Euro (the currency) can gain from the little crysis US incur to itself (by commiting to another war) at the same time - no one is going to let global power-shifting chances slip away - Euro can get a really upper hand vs. USD if do it right.

Well, of course I am not betting that Iran is the last straw, or pretending to be an economist who counting down the last days of American Dreams (like they did to China, hehe)... but the trend of "nobody is going to let global power-shifting chances slip away" is there, and US simply making that chance to happen, on its own choice.

After all, Taiwan is not going anywhere while the world shifting. That's all I want to emphasis. This "trade Iran for Taiwan" is a bit naive thinking.

With regards to China and Taiwan, they are both Chinese... Many of their relatives lives either in China or Taiwan. Do you think they would ever forgive their government for bombing their own people??

Click to expand...

How many millions died from Chairman Mao and the CCP's utterly insane ideas about agriculture and the economy? How many were executed by mobs across the country looking to purge any bourgeois elements? How many teachers, professors, scientists, engineers, and intelligentsia were lynched during the Cultural Revolution? You act as if the virginal CCP would never lift a finger against their fellow Chinese when in very recent history they have dropped the anvil on millions. And yet, amazingly, the country has moved on.

When there's a civil war, your "own people" get bombed. How many Chinese lost their lives in the Chinese Civil War from conventional weapons, it's in the hundreds of thousands, right? Whether a hundred thousand people die from strategic bombing, the starvation that follows an embargo, or a nuclear blast, what's the difference? Many of you need to take a stark look at the immense casualties and costs that a conventional invasion of Taiwan would cause, not to mention the very real possibility it all falls apart and the Mainland loses. plawolf, by your own estimates you say it will take weeks to get rolling. That is plenty of time for the U.S. to come to Taiwan's aid, and then it's all over, the ultimate humiliation of China once again having to back down in the face of Uncle Sam.

Regarding the PLA's record on counter-insurgency, what victories are you thinking about? The original civil war sixty years ago? Fighting a guerrilla war as the guerrillas if very different from fighting as the uniformed army. There is the Korean War....not a guerrilla war. There are the Sino-Indian clashes...not guerrilla wars. There is the Sino-Vietnamese war in 1979...not a guerrilla war. Maybe you're thinking about Tibet and Xinjiang? The groups in those regions are amateurs more akin to the anarchists in the West who like to create noise but have never tried to wage a serious guerrilla war.

This nuking comedy needs to stop, because it's just tarnishing what could have been a decent thread.

PRC in 2011 has overwhelming conventional superiority over Taiwan's army, navy and airforce. PRC navy air arm alone practices major advantages over the entire ROC airforce.

With the advent of anti-ship ballistic missiles, and a growing blue water capability, the USN's 26 forward deployed major surface combatants stationed in Japan and Guam (aka 7th fleet) are growing increasingly irrelevant in the Taiwan equation. 1996 was VERY different to 2011.

That being said, an invasion won't happen any time soon, and the more time passes, the less likely it will ever happen because China's military, political and financial power is growing exceedingly quickly, and ROC's trade volume composition with the mainland has surpassed 60% in 2011. It's becoming as integrated as any other province by simple gravitational momentum. As long as it does not veer off on an independent path, and direcly include itself in the attempted US encirlement of China, ROC has nothing to worry about.

It's true any military conflict is highly unlikely between the Mainland and Taiwan for the next 10 years, at least. But this thread is titled "PLAN Strategy in the Taiwan Straight." It's all "what if Beijing gave the military the order to retake Taiwan." We're all realists on this forum in the sense that we try to give analysis on what is likely to happen, or what would be tactically advantageous. Few of us are giving normative judgements of what either government ought to do in a moral sense. My position on the nuclear strike is simply that if the order came down from Beijing to retake Taiwan, as fast as possible and with a few casualties on both sides, the nuclear demonstration or strike would probably best accomplish those objectives. If the order came down from Beijing to engage in a long, drawn-out, militarily-risky war with Taiwan, then the amphibious invasion would best accomplish those objectives.

No one seems to be engaging in the idea of a nuclear demonstration, detonating a warhead off the eastern seaboard of Taiwan. That would cause no casualties or destruction and would be highly likely to bring about a quick surrender.

You know Geographer, if it is a topic regarding "setting off a nuke at USA's seaboard to 'demostrate' certain resolve, of "&&&'s strategy in bla bla theater", even people are try to give analysis on what is likely to happen, or what would be tactically advantageous - I would not surprised if the topic is deemed flambite and trollish, and the one who talks all those non-sense (thus result in a riot among members in the SDF) being granted a long holyday.

People didn't necessary knows your background or confirmed you have any relation with Li Gang (hope you heard this joke before), but from the looks of it - people can draw their own conclusion, while this "nuke" thing you try to sell, continuous without holyday break.

Taiwan in stealth technology breakthrough: report

Taiwan, province of China (e.g. according to IMF, WHO, etc.), has developed a new radar-absorbent material.



"Taiwan in stealth technology breakthrough: report
(AFP) – 20 hours ago


Taiwan has developed a radar-absorbent material in a breakthrough in the island's development of stealth technology (AFP/File, Alex Mita)

TAIPEI — Taiwan has developed a radar-absorbent material in a breakthrough in the island's development of stealth technology, local media reported Monday.

Tests showed that a navy 50-tonne Seagull-class missile boat painted with the material was not spotted on a radar screen until it could be seen with the naked eye, the United Daily News said. It is the first time Taiwan has developed such material.

The navy declined to comment on the report.

It was not immediately clear if the material would be used in the navy's fleet of 10 locally manufactured 171-tonne missile boats, whose design is already intended to reduce radar detection.

The ships, which are armed with four Taiwan-made Hsiungfeng II (Brave Wind) ship-to-ship missiles, are intended to replace the aging Seagull-class missile boats, the navy said.

Tensions between Taiwan and its former rival China have reduced markedly since Ma Ying-jeou of the China-friendly Kuomintang party came to power in 2008 on promises of beefing up trade links and allowing in more Chinese tourists.

But Beijing still considers the island part of its territory awaiting reunification, by force if necessary even though Taiwan has governed itself since China's civil war ended in 1949, prompting Taiwan to continue modernising its armed forces."

----------



"Talk of the Day -- Breakthrough in stealth technology?
2011/07/04 23:40:03
...
According to a United Daily News (UDN) report, the Republic of China Navy has collaborated with the Armaments Bureau to develop a radar-absorbent material that has allowed a 50-ton Navy Seagull-class missile boat coated with the material to evade radar detection.

The following is an excerpt of the UDN report:

Military sources said that even though the Seagull-class missile boat was not designed to disguise radar detection, the boat was not spotted on a radar screen after being coated with the newly developed material.

In the test, the sources said, the boat was not detected until it could be seen with the naked eye.

The Navy Command Headquarters confirmed that tests have indeed been made on a Seagull-class missile boat coated with a radar-absorbent material, but it declined to reveal any other details.

Naval sources said the Seagull missile boat proved itself in a night-time drill with a large warship.

"The missile boat disappeared from the large warship's radar screen when it was some 800 yards away," the source said."

Re: Taiwan in stealth technology breakthrough: report

Martian said:

Taiwan, province of China (e.g. according to IMF, WHO, etc.), has developed a new radar-absorbent material....

Click to expand...

Don't know who's more worried about this news, China central govt, or US?

PRC: Man it dose pose a threat!

US: Man that's like a give-away gift to the commies! It better not have US's tech in it.

In the end, both US and China knows the general direction of the strait didn't change by this.

Re: Taiwan in stealth technology breakthrough: report

plawolf said:

Iran is not going to be a push over, if the US attacked Iran, it will be a major war that will suck in the bulk of America's deployable military forces in the form of aircraft, munitions, logistical support and naval forces etc.

Click to expand...

That's exactly what people said about Iraq. The Iraqi military didn't last all that long and all the high end US military hardware was on their way home soon enough, leaving the boots on the ground to clean up the place.