PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
@Bltizo is there a particular reason for allowing @ecaedus to continue polluting this thread? He's clearly not here to debate properly or in good faith. It's also abundantly clear he has no interest in understanding the history of Taiwan or engaging in the geopolitics of the current Mainland-Taiwan situation. Rather he seems more intent on engaging in polemics and lecturing/yelling at us about the righteousness of his worldview. Just look at the amount of disruption he's caused in this thread. Whether he intends to or not, what he's doing is the definition of trolling.
Would be better to just delete the last 6 pages. The arguments / fight isn’t even related to the topic at hand.
 

Insignius

Junior Member
Who the hell cares. Might makes right. The West rules the world not because they were right, but because of their might. Of course they understand this and try to deny China that chance in the sun as well. China shouldnt care how the world will see China retaking Taiwan, but instead see to it that it can deter and, when necessary, defeat the intervention of the US and the opportunistic little Jappos as well. Nothing else matters. Who cares if you were right all along, but you cant have what you want, including your survival in this dog-eat-dog international system?

Let's talk more about military matters and less about the ideological and moral aspects.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
trying to dress up an invasion effort of robbing people who have known freedom for the past 70 years into "glorious purpose" or "revitalization of a country" is pathetic, cruel and meaningless. and lmao at the posters saying somehow china's justified because of chinese "psyche, history or culture", that sounds like some other dictator d**khead said recently when he decided to launch his country into a war that has bogged him down for 3 weeks now.

regardless of what "most chinese" think, an overwhelming majority of taiwanese do not, and will not, accept CCP rule. and the fact that CCP has not yet dared to launch an major offensive of any kind, physical, political or economical, speak more to its simple inability to do such thing.

as of today's PLA overall conventional capability, it has no chance against an allied intervention when it comes to taking tw. and a defeat in tw would certainly mean the complete destruction of any meaningful PLAN and PLAAF forces, which would also at best turn china into a bigger NK or at worst, lead to the eventual collapse of the CCP.
Where was this allied intervention when PLA took half of Taiwanese territory in the Battle of Hainan?

ROC after the Chinese Civil War ended on the mainland used to be Taiwan + Hainan. It was conveniently reduced to just Taiwan after an amphibious liberation in March 1950.

Where were they? Hainan is separate from the mainland by over 30 km of water, where were they??
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
trying to dress up an invasion effort of robbing people who have known freedom for the past 70 years into "glorious purpose" or "revitalization of a country" is pathetic, cruel and meaningless.
Thank you, but this is an internal civil war. You are an outsider, so your are free to have your opinion. The Chinese are not obligated to listen to you.
and lmao at the posters saying somehow china's justified because of chinese "psyche, history or culture", that sounds like some other dictator d**khead said recently when he decided to launch his country into a war that has bogged him down for 3 weeks now.
The difference is Ukraine is a sovereign UN member state, whereas Taiwan is not internationally recognized as sovereign state, much less not even an UN member state.

There is zero comparison between Ukraine and Taiwan, unless you have a superficial understanding of China-Taiwan relations.
regardless of what "most chinese" think,
and we should care what a random foreigner thinks about Chinese Civil War?
an overwhelming majority of taiwanese do not,
Usually expected within a Civil War....
and will not, accept CCP rule.
I didn't know it was an open invitation? After all, it is a Civil War, and nobody is obligated to accept the surrender terms. They are free to fight you know.
and the fact that CCP has not yet dared to launch an major offensive of any kind, physical, political or economical, speak more to its simple inability to do such thing.
China is focused on economic growth until it achieves globalized, industrialized, developed nation status, and then waiting for the right opportunity when US and world is distracted, then making a move on Taiwan. That is the West's worst nightmare, because it cannot stop China's rise before it gets too strong and while West is at the apex. What is wrong with this strategy? You want to provoke China into war? Ain't gonna happen.
as of today's PLA overall conventional capability, it has no chance against an allied intervention when it comes to taking tw.
This is true. That's why China is waiting until it's more economically and militarily powerful and the right opportunity when the world is distracted. What is wrong with this strategy?
and a defeat in tw would certainly mean the complete destruction of any meaningful PLAN and PLAAF forces,
True.
which would also at best turn china into a bigger NK or at worst, lead to the eventual collapse of the CCP.
Exactly. Now you are understanding why nuclear war is on the table, because if CCP is at risk of revolution, then might as well pull the world down with it if it dares to intervene in China's internal civil war. You are understanding the nuclear brinkmanship now. Good job!

Now you foreigners want China to fight with one-arm tied behind it's back (no nukes) while lecturing China on sovereignty/territorial respect of Taiwanese freedom, while clearing ignoring that it's an internal affairs of China and an internal civil war. If you want to be suicidal, then feel free to intervene. Just know nuclear WW3 could be in play.
 

solarz

Brigadier
I just came to a realization: the Uyghur genocide story is a litmus test.

Near the end of the Qin dynasty, the eunnuch Zhao Gao became the power behind the throne. In order to purge those who might not be loyal to him, Zhao Gao one day brought a deer into the court, and told the Emperor that it was a marvelous horse. The Emperor, confused, asked Zhao Gao if he was joking, since this was obviously a deer. Zhao Gao turned to the imperial court and in complete seriousness, asked the officials present to tell the Emperor if this was a deer or a horse.

Some officials, fearing Zhao Gao's power, or wanting to court his favor, told the Emperor it was a horse. Other officials, unwilling to bend their dignity, maintained that it was a horse.

Zhao Gao memorized every official that claimed it was a horse, and later had them killed under various pretexts.

The Uyghur genocide story is the modern version of 指鹿为马. When the day of armed reunification comes, you can be certain that the world will be divided into two camps: those who joined in on the genocide accusations, and those who refused to be a part of it.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
I just came to a realization: the Uyghur genocide story is a litmus test.

Near the end of the Qin dynasty, the eunnuch Zhao Gao became the power behind the throne. In order to purge those who might not be loyal to him, Zhao Gao one day brought a deer into the court, and told the Emperor that it was a marvelous horse. The Emperor, confused, asked Zhao Gao if he was joking, since this was obviously a deer. Zhao Gao turned to the imperial court and in complete seriousness, asked the officials present to tell the Emperor if this was a deer or a horse.

Some officials, fearing Zhao Gao's power, or wanting to court his favor, told the Emperor it was a horse. Other officials, unwilling to bend their dignity, maintained that it was a horse.

Zhao Gao memorized every official that claimed it was a horse, and later had them killed under various pretexts.

The Uyghur genocide story is the modern version of 指鹿为马. When the day of armed reunification comes, you can be certain that the world will be divided into two camps: those who joined in on the genocide accusations, and those who refused to be a part of it.
Damn, I love these stories from Chinese antiquity. Let me tell you my favourite of these stories, "Emperor Wu and the Troublesome Xiongnu."

Once upon a time, many, many, years ago, there lived a Chinese emperor. Because fate has decreed that China must always be bothered by some group of assholes, this emperor was dealing with a band of nomadic raiders called the Xiongnu. The emperor had a serious problem - China didn't have the cavalry to deal with the raider scum and no response to their hit-and-run tactics. Seeing this, the emperor decided to cobble together a diplomatic accord with the raiders and build China's economy.

So things went until the emperor died and was succeeded by his son. The new emperor continued his father's project until he himself died and was succeeded by his son, the emperor Wu.

Emperor Wu, seeing the great lengths his father and grandfather went to build the empire's economy, began a massive militarization program which saw the breeding of hundreds of thousands of horses along with the professionalization of the army. He then goes to war against the Xiongnu...

If you want to know how the war went, ask yourself one question: Do you know any Xiongnu?
 

solarz

Brigadier
Damn, I love these stories from Chinese antiquity. Let me tell you my favourite of these stories, "Emperor Wu and the Troublesome Xiongnu."

Once upon a time, many, many, years ago, there lived a Chinese emperor. Because fate has decreed that China must always be bothered by some group of assholes, this emperor was dealing with a band of nomadic raiders called the Xiongnu. The emperor had a serious problem - China didn't have the cavalry to deal with the raider scum and no response to their hit-and-run tactics. Seeing this, the emperor decided to cobble together a diplomatic accord with the raiders and build China's economy.

So things went until the emperor died and was succeeded by his son. The new emperor continued his father's project until he himself died and was succeeded by his son, the emperor Wu.

Emperor Wu, seeing the great lengths his father and grandfather went to build the empire's economy, began a massive militarization program which saw the breeding of hundreds of thousands of horses along with the professionalization of the army. He then goes to war against the Xiongnu...

If you want to know how the war went, ask yourself one question: Do you know any Xiongnu?

Han dynasty sacrificed a lot, both before and after Wudi, to keep the peace on its northern borders. The story of Wang Zhaojun is just one of those sacrifices.

Throughout its history, China has always been plagued with some kind of existential threat (which I suppose can be said of any great civilizations). How a dynasty manages those threats is indicative of how long that dynasty will last.
 

9dashline

Captain
Registered Member
Damn, I love these stories from Chinese antiquity. Let me tell you my favourite of these stories, "Emperor Wu and the Troublesome Xiongnu."

Once upon a time, many, many, years ago, there lived a Chinese emperor. Because fate has decreed that China must always be bothered by some group of assholes, this emperor was dealing with a band of nomadic raiders called the Xiongnu. The emperor had a serious problem - China didn't have the cavalry to deal with the raider scum and no response to their hit-and-run tactics. Seeing this, the emperor decided to cobble together a diplomatic accord with the raiders and build China's economy.

So things went until the emperor died and was succeeded by his son. The new emperor continued his father's project until he himself died and was succeeded by his son, the emperor Wu.

Emperor Wu, seeing the great lengths his father and grandfather went to build the empire's economy, began a massive militarization program which saw the breeding of hundreds of thousands of horses along with the professionalization of the army. He then goes to war against the Xiongnu...

If you want to know how the war went, ask yourself one question: Do you know any Xiongnu?
So you saying, if I follow the analogy correctly, the China is preparing for the Americans to get Native American'd lol
 

TheFoozyOne

New Member
Registered Member
trying to dress up an invasion effort of robbing people who have known freedom for the past 70 years into "glorious purpose" or "revitalization of a country" is pathetic, cruel and meaningless. and lmao at the posters saying somehow china's justified because of chinese "psyche, history or culture", that sounds like some other dictator d**khead said recently when he decided to launch his country into a war that has bogged him down for 3 weeks now.

regardless of what "most chinese" think, an overwhelming majority of taiwanese do not, and will not, accept CCP rule. and the fact that CCP has not yet dared to launch an major offensive of any kind, physical, political or economical, speak more to its simple inability to do such thing.

as of today's PLA overall conventional capability, it has no chance against an allied intervention when it comes to taking tw. and a defeat in tw would certainly mean the complete destruction of any meaningful PLAN and PLAAF forces, which would also at best turn china into a bigger NK or at worst, lead to the eventual collapse of the CCP.
Don’t take kindness for weakness. Chinese government still sees Taiwanese people as Chinese and would like peaceful reunification until it is considered no longer possible in order to avoid shedding more Chinese blood.

If the Taiwanese government and the West are so confident, then why doesn’t Taiwan declare its independence?

The West intervening on behalf of Taiwan would result in the collapse of the global economy at best and the end of US hegemony with the lost of multiple carrier groups at worst. Is the US/West willing to do that for Taiwan? Because China is willing to fight a total war over Taiwan if that is what it ultimately takes.
 
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