PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

ecaedus said:

seems like i've struck a nerve. lets call "reunification" what it is: an invasion on an island of 23million people with the goal to change their government, society and way of life.

i find it funny that some folks think the west is going to be the one escalating the war into MAD. in any case, judging by the current capabilities of PLA (and agreed by many posters here i believe), an invasion to occupy tw under the intervention of the allied forces will be a complete failure.

if china's strategy when facing defeat of invasion is to: "end the world" by launching nukes first, then i'm pretty sure the "world" is justified to do whatever's necessary to defend itself.

the world is not "forcing" china to launch an invasion, if china starts one then it must be ready to face the consequences, good or bad.

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Firstly, I don't agree that China should escalate to a nuclear war even if China attempted to invade Taiwan ended up in a failure. China has a no first use policy for nuke and I do believe China would stick to this policy.

Secondly, if the Western powers intervened in the war, then a nuclear exchange would never be ruled out. China is a nuclear power. It is building up its nuclear arsenal. When countries with nukes fighting each others, nothing is going to be ruled out.

Thirdly, you assumed that the Western powers intervention would prevail. That's your opinion. Many people don't agree with you. So don't project your own thinking to other posters.

Fourthly, a member said that China should use nukes when the invasion failed. That's his opinion. I don't agree. However, I would point out China war doctrine is different than the West. China no first use policy has made that the use of nuke almost impossible for the military high command. Therefore, the military high command has developed a new war doctrine. That's China has a ballistic arsenal that can bring destruction to the enemies even greater scale through simply firing a few ballistic missiles pack with multiple tons of explosive to create the kinds of destruction that rival and exceed nukes.

Lastly, the war of reunification was the up most important to the CPC and the Chinese military and mainland Chinese. If the Western powers think that they could provoke China and induce Taiwan independent and get away with it. Then I would advise the West to seriously think the consequence and the fallout of a total war.

ecaedus said:

seems like i've struck a nerve. lets call "reunification" what it is: an invasion on an island of 23million people with the goal to change their government, society and way of life.

i find it funny that some folks think the west is going to be the one escalating the war into MAD. in any case, judging by the current capabilities of PLA (and agreed by many posters here i believe), an invasion to occupy tw under the intervention of the allied forces will be a complete failure.

if china's strategy when facing defeat of invasion is to: "end the world" by launching nukes first, then i'm pretty sure the "world" is justified to do whatever's necessary to defend itself.

the world is not "forcing" china to launch an invasion, if china starts one then it must be ready to face the consequences, good or bad.

Click to expand...

It is impossible to have a civil conversation about this when the views on the political status and existence of Taiwan cannot be agreed upon, and there is too wide of a divergence of views of the nature of the historical justice, course and principles that are perceived to have resulted in the current situation.

You can argue that you think that the political status of Taiwan is not worth nuclear exchange and armageddon, but how can you make the case and convince people who believe the political status of Taiwan IS worth nuclear exchange?

ecaedus said:

seems like i've struck a nerve. lets call "reunification" what it is: an invasion on an island of 23million people with the goal to change their government, society and way of life.

i find it funny that some folks think the west is going to be the one escalating the war into MAD. in any case, judging by the current capabilities of PLA (and agreed by many posters here i believe), an invasion to occupy tw under the intervention of the allied forces will be a complete failure.

if china's strategy when facing defeat of invasion is to: "end the world" by launching nukes first, then i'm pretty sure the "world" is justified to do whatever's necessary to defend itself.

the world is not "forcing" china to launch an invasion, if china starts one then it must be ready to face the consequences, good or bad.

Click to expand...

China needs nukes to deter the butthurt reactions of your allied interventionists once their carriers and airbases go up in smoke under conventional Chinese strikes. China isnt the one to escalate to nuclear war and you know it. But China will strike US bases in Asia and elsewhere that are used to launch attacks against Chinese invasion/blockading forces in a Taiwan conflict.

If the US stays conventional and plays along, China has no problem with fighting a conventional war against the US over Taiwan. This is what China has been preparing for since the Taiwan Strait Crisis of '96. But if the US is overreacting and cant stay their hand once their carriers get sunk by conventional ASBMs or Kadena gets cratered and thousands of US servicemen burn to death due to conventional IRBMs, China will tell the US "either you shut up and take it, or we go up to nuclear war and let's see if Taiwan is worth your West Coast".

Dont even try to argue here. Because China WILL NOT BE THE ONE TO START LAUNCHING NUKES. Chinese nukes serve to deter US butthurt for losing their tools of hegemony.

Anyway. Let’s just stop the pointless flame war since it doesn’t do anything for anyone and we all know the likelihood of a hot conflict happening short term is tiny chance (couple years).

China would rather sit back and buildup while the US is busy with other obligations (Ukraine) to shift full focus on East Asia in the short term

Would be better to talk about military specifics and other speculations then this political flame war.

ecaedus said:

what a genocidal and idiotic thing to say....i know this forum is pro CCP but talking about destroying the world if a civil war doesn't go your way is too much.

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Says by a person from an idiotic country prepared to destroy the world back in 1962 if Soviet missiles weren't removed from a sovereign country called Cuba. And you're calling one of us genocidal? The f..k you guys trying to meddle in China's internal affairs for to begin with?

FriedButter said:

Anyway. Let’s just stop the pointless flame war since it doesn’t do anything for anyone and we all know the likelihood of a hot conflict happening short term is tiny chance (couple years).

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I and a lot of others didn't think Russia would invade Ukraine but they did, so the likelihood of a hot conflict over Taiwan in the coming years isn't that implausible (its a possibility that we should be wary of, and the US might be crazy enough to push the vegetable for an independence declaration).

FriedButter said:

China would rather sit back and buildup while the US is busy with other obligations (Ukraine) to shift full focus on East Asia in the short term

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Yes China wants to continue building up, although there are quite a lot of signals showing that it wans to end the 'Taiwan situation' this decadeish (either peacefully or not, and probably 2025-2030ish)

ecaedus said:

seems like i've struck a nerve. lets call "reunification" what it is: an invasion on an island of 23million people with the goal to change their government, society and way of life.

i find it funny that some folks think the west is going to be the one escalating the war into MAD. in any case, judging by the current capabilities of PLA (and agreed by many posters here i believe), an invasion to occupy tw under the intervention of the allied forces will be a complete failure.

if china's strategy when facing defeat of invasion is to: "end the world" by launching nukes first, then i'm pretty sure the "world" is justified to do whatever's necessary to defend itself.

the world is not "forcing" china to launch an invasion, if china starts one then it must be ready to face the consequences, good or bad.

Click to expand...

How is China invading a territory that first and foremost within it's jurisdiction? And if your stupid ass country that is the U.S. wasn't busy meddling, interfering in the middle of the Civil War between the CPC and the KMT by backing the losers a.k.a. KMT then this whole Taiwan bullshit issue wouldn't be an issue period.

Too bad buddy, Taiwan is China wether you freaking guys, gals want to accept that or not. I can't wait for China to become a lot stronger, and it's leaders replaced by younger, and even more nationalistic by that time so they can also play, fast, and lose around America and the collective west. The reaction and howling would be so glorious.

Michaelsinodef said:

I and a lot of others didn't think Russia would invade Ukraine but they did, so the likelihood of a hot conflict over Taiwan in the coming years isn't that implausible (its a possibility that we should be wary of, and the US might be crazy enough to push the vegetable for an independence declaration).

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Russia had a 1 in a life time opportunity to make a move. China has the ability to choose when. As for the US, it’s a battle between the Elites and the Neocons.

Michaelsinodef said:

Yes China wants to continue building up, although there are quite a lot of signals showing that it wans to end the 'Taiwan situation' this decadeish (either peacefully or not, and probably 2025-2030ish)

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If anything happens then it’s more likely to be at or near the of the decade. I do not believe China would jeopardize the semiconductor industry until they are sufficiently built it up enough alongside an domestic EUV.

ecaedus said:

seems like i've struck a nerve. lets call "reunification" what it is: an invasion on an island of 23million people with the goal to change their government, society and way of life.

i find it funny that some folks think the west is going to be the one escalating the war into MAD. in any case, judging by the current capabilities of PLA (and agreed by many posters here i believe), an invasion to occupy tw under the intervention of the allied forces will be a complete failure.

if china's strategy when facing defeat of invasion is to: "end the world" by launching nukes first, then i'm pretty sure the "world" is justified to do whatever's necessary to defend itself.

the world is not "forcing" china to launch an invasion, if china starts one then it must be ready to face the consequences, good or bad.

Click to expand...

Well, yes, of course.

If Ukraine war right now is "under the intervention" by only NATO forces against Russian, Russian forces in Ukraine right now will also fail.
If Ukraine war right now is "under the intervention" by only PLA forces against Ukrainian, Ukraine will fall within a couple of days.
...
You can keep on making these statements based on assumptions. But how likely and realistic are those assumptions? And What exactly do you even mean "allied forces"?
Because so far, even though Russian forces performed worse than a soviet style military 20/30 years ago, the West/NATO still refuses to step in.

Isn't Ukraine an actual UN member country recognized by all of the world's countries as a sovereign nation (which Taiwan isn't)? Didn't they got "invaded" by Russia with "the goal to change their government, society and way of life" as implied and professed by all of Western Media?
What did the West and NATO do, except hapless sanctions and media war?
They US didn't EVEN agree to send in second hand old Mig-29s!!

Where are these so-called "allied forces" when Ukraine is in trouble? What make you think they will risk their lives, bleed their blood to fight China, just to save Taiwan's ass?

The most these "allied forces" will do, is to dump overpriced old weaponries on Taiwan in exchange for brownie points. Now that they think it be as easy for these "underdogs" to China as Ukraine is fighting Russia: with Javelins and Stingers only.

Jingle Bells said:

The most these "allied forces" will do, is to dump overpriced old weaponries on Taiwan in exchange for brownie points. Now that they think it be as easy for these "underdogs" to China as Ukraine is fighting Russia: with Javelins and Stingers only.

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I doubt stuff like that would even be able to make it to Taiwan if a conflict arises lol (tbh, Taiwan could fall before they get ready to ship that shit lol, assuming no outside intervention which is likely)