Taiwan will cease to exist before that separatists are allowed to come out victorious.
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
Historically ROC troops cracked on contact. PLAN dominates ROCN. PLAAF dominates ROCAF.
But if the ground phase was to be unsuccessful then the new objective is to remove the possibility of a Taiwanese threat. That is, to destroy the basis of the Taiwanese military. The basis of the Taiwanese military is the economy because they import weapons.
Start sending reinforcements from other Theater Commands of course.
The PLAGF has about 1 millions active duty service members. There is another 1.5 million PAP and about 10 million reservists.
Whether the PLA can project those forces to Taiwan proper is the question. As long as the PLA has air superiority and command of the sea, it is in an unassailble position. Without air superiority and the command of the sea, an operation in Taiwan might turn into a second Battle of Kinmen.
Surely no one is in doubt whether the PLA has air and naval superiority or not.
You know after Kinmen there were multiple other amphibious battles, like the much bigger Battle of Hainan where the KMT forces were defeated with a 1:6 casualty ratio?
If the only opponent is the ROCAF and ROCN, then sure, the disparity is too big in China's favour. But it would be a separate matter if the US, UK, Australia and Japan decide to intervene.
Realistically, where are they going to be parking their assets to intervene? It all sounds very good on paper, but only US & Japan matters, and with what assets do they expect to establish air and naval superiority over the Taiwan straight? Its what comes after that is the real question and the main reason why its not kinetic yet.....
hence why there's 300 new silos finished building, early warning satellites being launched and an early warning agreement signed with Russia.
What is scary is that J-20 from the 9th has been performing air patrol duties since 2020 and haven’t been mentioned even once in the ROC ADIZ incursions report.