PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
I'm done with this thread for a while as it pertained to the discussion before lol.
Do you want to dissect this article and get in a 50 page argument again? Lol

I tried to look back on this forum but I couldn’t find if this was posted or not but I thought i was a very interesting article from 2018.

Posted by former Deputy Commander of the Nanjing Military Region (2005-2012) aka Eastern Treater Command.



His remarks prompted the PLA’s news website to issue a notice urging the public not to “over-interpret” the former senior military official’s statement on “liberating Taiwan.”

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The article in question.

武统台湾怎么打?解放军中将:六种战法三天拿下​

(How does Wutong Taiwan fight? Lieutenant General of the People's Liberation Army: Six tactics to win in three days)​

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Let’s discount the three day thing and look over the details of his “6 battles in one.” There is a lot more details but I will condense the initial parts and what seems interesting to me

1) Firefighting: Preparation Stage of 3 waves of artillery/missile attacks + 3 waves of aviation strikes should destroy 1/3 of Taiwans important targets (computer simulation) and suppress important/general target for 48 hours. Afterwards, drones used to monitor and eliminate in the area. A Combination of landed fire brigades + air + naval + to provide uninterrupted fire support for 72 hours.

2) Targeted Warfare: Modern landing operations do not require frontlines or “layer by layer” strikes and advances, forming fronts, and successfully occupy defensive enemy areas. Instead divided into “destroy, suppress, capture, monitor, hold, etc” targets. The scale of the land force is greatly reduced as the army implements targeted warfare and it will not fight urban or street to street fighting. All equipment, troops and materials can be transported within 72 hours.

2.1) Concentration: The distance between Commend Posts, Depots, Airports, Naval Ports, Major Roadways, etc is not far.

2.2) Exposure: All airports are close to the sea and cave airports can be hit by planes. For example, the Hengshan underground commend center can be seen with google maps.

3) Third Dimensional Warfare: Normandy style landings is no longer the main focus of modern landings but a combination of styles are to be used together (land, airborne, paratroopers etc) depending on terrain and enemy concentration.

4) Information Warfare: EMPs and Graphite bombs essential. Commend Centers, Commend Systems, Internet, Local Networks, and Power transmission networks are main targets.

5) Special Forces:

5.1) Decapitation Operation:
if bomb strikes fail special forces will finish it

5.2) Advance Action: Secure important objectives (buildings, roadways etc) to assist the main force and to provide reconnaissance/evaluation for firepower support and damage effect.

6) Psychological Warfare: The usual stuff.

This does kinda sound like what Russia was doing in Ukraine (Targeted Warfare) except for the lack of consistent air power.
 

lych470

Junior Member
Registered Member
Hardly fuel independent China is the world's largest crude oil importer and the second-largest crude oil consumer.
China imports 10 million barrels a day
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with a total consumption of around 14 million barrels a day.

Also China has decided to have more stockpile in its oil reserves - the news is quite fresh.

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lych470

Junior Member
Registered Member
Do you want to dissect this article and get in a 50 page argument again? Lol

I tried to look back on this forum but I couldn’t find if this was posted or not but I thought i was a very interesting article from 2018.

Posted by former Deputy Commander of the Nanjing Military Region (2005-2012) aka Eastern Treater Command.





The article in question.


Let’s discount the three day thing and look over the details of his “6 battles in one.” There is a lot more details but I will condense the initial parts and what seems interesting to me

1) Firefighting: Preparation Stage of 3 waves of artillery/missile attacks + 3 waves of aviation strikes should destroy 1/3 of Taiwans important targets (computer simulation) and suppress important/general target for 48 hours. Afterwards, drones used to monitor and eliminate in the area. A Combination of landed fire brigades + air + naval + to provide uninterrupted fire support for 72 hours.

2) Targeted Warfare: Modern landing operations do not require frontlines or “layer by layer” strikes and advances, forming fronts, and successfully occupy defensive enemy areas. Instead divided into “destroy, suppress, capture, monitor, hold, etc” targets. The scale of the land force is greatly reduced as the army implements targeted warfare and it will not fight urban or street to street fighting. All equipment, troops and materials can be transported within 72 hours.

2.1) Concentration: The distance between Commend Posts, Depots, Airports, Naval Ports, Major Roadways, etc is not far.

2.2) Exposure: All airports are close to the sea and cave airports can be hit by planes. For example, the Hengshan underground commend center can be seen with google maps.

3) Third Dimensional Warfare: Normandy style landings is no longer the main focus of modern landings but a combination of styles are to be used together (land, airborne, paratroopers etc) depending on terrain and enemy concentration.

4) Information Warfare: EMPs and Graphite bombs essential. Commend Centers, Commend Systems, Internet, Local Networks, and Power transmission networks are main targets.

5) Special Forces:

5.1) Decapitation Operation:
if bomb strikes fail special forces will finish it

5.2) Advance Action: Secure important objectives (buildings, roadways etc) to assist the main force and to provide reconnaissance/evaluation for firepower support and damage effect.

6) Psychological Warfare: The usual stuff.

This does kinda sound like what Russia was doing in Ukraine (Targeted Warfare) except for the lack of consistent air power.
I've come across this article a while ago too.

I think the military balance in the Taiwan Straits tipped towards PRC in the mid-2000s. I think 3 days is a little bit optimistic, as it assumes total operational surprise. I doubt the PLA would be able to achieve that sort of operational surprise, as troop build up and troop readiness is easy to discover in the age of satellites. US intelligence sharing would mean that any and all info would be passed to ROCA immediately.

The real crux of the matter is not whether China can take back Taiwan island, but whether China can do so even in the face of US and allied intervention.
 

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
I've come across this article a while ago too.

I think the military balance in the Taiwan Straits tipped towards PRC in the mid-2000s. I think 3 days is a little bit optimistic, as it assumes total operational surprise. I doubt the PLA would be able to achieve that sort of operational surprise, as troop build up and troop readiness is easy to discover in the age of satellites. US intelligence sharing would mean that any and all info would be passed to ROCA immediately.

The real crux of the matter is not whether China can take back Taiwan island, but whether China can do so even in the face of US and allied intervention.
Ya. I discounted the 3 day thingy as well but the 10,000 long range rocket is interesting. Kinda surprise he even gave a number.
 
Last edited:

solarz

Brigadier
The real crux of the matter is not whether China can take back Taiwan island, but whether China can do so even in the face of US and allied intervention.

Hence the need for speed. The faster China can pacify Taiwan, the less likely the US will jump into the conflict.
 
I think a lot will depend on the disposition of the ROC/Taiwan elite, military, and population at the time of hostilities. If a significant proportion is neutral, or a small proportion is actively co-operative with a PRC takeover it can make things a lot easier for the PLA. Pre-conflict soft power prep and psy-ops will matter a lot.

In terms of intervention I think the biggest question is whether/how militarized will nearby potentially hostile islands be, the Ryukyus in particular. If US/Japan intervenes I can see the PRC/PLA finding it necessary to liberate the Ryukyus and turning it into an independent friendly country instead of essentially just temporarily destroying hostile military assets there.
 

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
I think a lot will depend on the disposition of the ROC/Taiwan elite, military, and population at the time of hostilities. If a significant proportion is neutral, or a small proportion is actively co-operative with a PRC takeover it can make things a lot easier for the PLA. Pre-conflict soft power prep and psy-ops will matter a lot.

In terms of intervention I think the biggest question is whether/how militarized will nearby potentially hostile islands be, the Ryukyus in particular. If US/Japan intervenes I can see the PRC/PLA finding it necessary to liberate the Ryukyus and turning it into an independent friendly country instead of essentially just temporarily destroying hostile military assets there
Better off destroying military assets. Ryukyus is way further off from China or Taiwan and it’s an island chain. Don’t see a need to extend the logistic by a significant amount for an island hopping campaign.
 

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
Given the successful Ukrainian social media campaign to rally public opinion, the first action if Tw goes hot is cutting internet, jamming RF and destroying communication relays. This creates a total media blackout such that the only voice with credibility is the official PRC point of view. There will be no evidence or narratives to contest it.

Understandably Russia does not have the capability to do this in Ukraine as Ukraine borders EU but TW is an island and the PLAN dominates the entire ocean around it.
 

lych470

Junior Member
Registered Member
Given the successful Ukrainian social media campaign to rally public opinion, the first action if Tw goes hot is cutting internet, jamming RF and destroying communication relays. This creates a total media blackout such that the only voice with credibility is the official PRC point of view. There will be no evidence or narratives to contest it.

Understandably Russia does not have the capability to do this in Ukraine as Ukraine borders EU but TW is an island and the PLAN dominates the entire ocean around it.
To a degree I don't think PRC will be able to sway Western opinions (perhaps the Chinese diaspora could help, but still doubtful). Controlling the narrative will be crucial. A total communication blackout is necessary, but hard to achieve due to satellite internet and satellite phones.
 
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