PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
2. The Korean war was not an air-naval conflict, as it was primarily a ground war with some air elements, and one where the US was unable to exploit its air capabilities in the way it would have preferred if Chinese soil were also a target (i.e.: conducting large scale bombing of Chinese staging areas on Chinese soil).

I do not agree with this at all. North Korea was razed in a massive aerial bombardment campaign for the time.
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North Korea had to be completely rebuilt from the ground up after the war. The Korean War was also the first time you saw jet vs jet fighter combat. The Soviets and some Chinese and North Korean pilots provided air cover in the later part of the war. That is how they could push the US troops back. In fact Mao only approved the Chinese entry into the war after Stalin guaranteed to provide air cover. You seem to think there was no aerial component but this is totally and utterly wrong. Korea was also the first war which saw the large use of helicopters for air transport and medevac.

The Korean War pioneered a lot of concepts of combined arms which were later expanded upon in the Vietnam War. But yes a modern conflict would not look the same. Because it would escalate into a nuclear exchange before it came to that. So it would never get to that degree in the first place.

Do you seriously disagree with this point? In all aspects of naval-air platforms and weaponry the US has a large quantitative lead. It doesn't matter if you're bringing up SSNs/SSGNS or CVNs or LHAs/LHDs or large surface platforms like CGs/DDGs or 5th gen combat aircraft or modern ASW platforms etc etc etc.

I see no reason why China cannot surpass the US in LHA and LHD capacity easily with current produced systems. Not that they need to. Those are necessary for a Pacific island hopping campaign but I don't see China engaging into something like that. I think the major Chinese weakness is the nuclear submarine fleet.

n a limited short duration conflict it could easily defeat the US without taking excessive casualties

It is impossible to defeat the US without cutting off its hands and feet first. China would need to knock down their allies one by one first.
Unless you do a decapitation attack but that would imply MAD. Just look at the Punic Wars. Rome first did a land invasion and conquered all the Cartaginian colonies. They completely cut them off. Only after that did they engage them directly.

So when China reaches qualitative and quantitative rough parity in 15 years, hopefully it will be forward deploying a moderately sized but reasonably capable percentage of its assets to target the American homeland in the same way that is being done to China now.

No way. That is simply impossible. Do you really see China having permanently deployed troops close to the US? There is just no way. That is Red Dawn levels of nonsense. I do not think either Russia or China ever expect that to happen. They only expect the US to retreat back into its own landmass.

Oh victory could be attained if the USA is willing suffer the kind of loses that took the UK from a super power status to a vestigial empire that has trouble trying to project itself while looking like a joke as it currently is ever since is separation from the EU.

The UK lost its colonial empire. They had to starve them out to win WW2. India is a good example of this. The UK also got itself into a massive debt to the US that they had to pay for by forcing their own people into rationing for like two decades.

But nowadays, the EU could easily see themselves being used as a sacrifice to stall Russia so that the USA can take on China alone

I do not see Europe totally collapsing without either a massive land war or a total naval blockade for a prolonged period of time.
Contrary to some people I think the current Russian army could easily take Europe down militarily. The problem would be holding on to it afterwards. That the Soviets could hold onto Eastern Europe for as long as they did was no small miracle.
I say this because the Russians outmatch any single European army alone. Multinational armies are always shit in warfare. Just look at the Battle of France in WW2 for example.

Also to note is that any attempts by Korea or Japan to aid the US in a fight against China and Russia would result in the complete destruction of both

That is one reason why I expect a Taiwanese conflict to expand into South Korea and possibly Taiwan in case the US tries to fight back militarily. Personally I think the US would try to do a blockade of China first. Since it is basically impossible to engage China militarily while they are in a position of strength. Only by destroying their technological base first can they even contemplate something like that.
You guys talk about the Iraqi war a lot. Just consider the amount of troops the US used in Kuwait vs the amount of troops they used in 2003. A lot of people claimed it was impossible. It wasn't because the Iraqi armed forces were in shambles. They had no parts and equipment for like a decade. Most weapons were imported.

From my prognosis, either the USA collapses in on itself from all its issues or should USA is able to bring its full forces to bear against

Some years back I thought this would happen. But they seem to be reelling in their allies quite effectively thus far.
They will just squeeze them like the British did with India.

if the USA loses its dollar prominence and if they cannot fix their own infrastructure and supply chain issues in time

Right. In some ways the best time to do a Taiwan invasion would be right now while the US has its infrastructure and industry in shambles and cutting off its access to Chinese industry would do the most damage.
 

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
2. At the end of a war of attrition that China has lost, China will have basically no air and naval forces to speak of, Taiwan would be devastated but able to declare formal independence

Taiwan is an island. It can be blockaded and bombed to hell and back. Not that I think it will be necessary. I suspect the PRC could decapitate their command structure without much effort. You seem to think they would put up a stiff resistance but I doubt it. A lot of their corporate leaders have been bought off like two decades ago. To a large degree China tolerates Taiwan because it is a convenient way to access Western technology. If, for whatever reason, the US blocks access to that then Taiwan instantly becomes irrelevant.

In a westpac conflict, the PLA's air capabilities will be fighting against the US in the general western pacific in the first chain and trying to conduct strikes into the second island chain. With the current balance of air fleets in the region, the PLA would be stretched thin to do so.

If I was the Chinese I would not bother with that. I would just warn all the countries up to the second island chain they either expel US forces from their own soil or I nuke their largest city into a glowing crater. And I will keep doing it until they kick them out. In the Continuation War after the Finns lost the war against the Soviets they expelled the Germans from Finland themselves. The Soviets did not need to bother doing it. China just needs to pull the same stich the US does. You are either with us or against us.

If we now introduce a second Korean War that requires the PLA to be able to contest air superiority over the Korean peninsula against the ROKAF and US air forces in Korea

Even if China does the naval buildup you guys are talking about they will have less ships and aircraft than the US and South Korea and Japan combined. Presently China seems to be trying to mostly keep parity with South Korean, Japanese, and forward deployed US naval forces alone. Not the entire US Navy. But, Japan and South Korea have a major weakness. They are basically islands. You cut out their supply of fuel and ammunition and they become useless. You know the same thing the US claims they can do against China.
But China has direct pipelines which could keep it going even after that and neither South Korea nor Japan have the same luxury.

I still do feel a little skeptical that China would so easily lose a war of attrition.

He is assuming the US can get air superiority and do aerial bombardments using their allies in the Pacific to hit targets in China.
You can in theory deliver a much larger volume of bombs that way than with missiles. China does not have this luxury.
In my view the only way China can counter this right now is by escalating with nukes.

wouldn't the initial engagement between Chinese and American forces be so brutal for the American side due to the overwhelming mass of missile strikes

Might not be possible without tactical nuclear class warheads. It depends.

The only way I can imagine the US forces are able to effectively redeploy is if they do it en masse. Like hundreds of aircraft arriving at a time, instead of dozens here or there.

Concentrating forces too much risks a major wipeout. That is why the US is claiming to be aiming for making dozens of teensy austere air bases and using those to surge. Cute in theory but given the vast distances in the Pacific good luck doing that without aerial refueling. So you hit their refueling aircraft and fuel dumps or supply ships instead. You build loads of submarines and sink all their supply ships and force them to do aerial supply of fuel everywhere. You knock down their communication satellites and prevent them from coordinating their attacks from multiple bases. You jam their communications.

Hundreds of military aircraft just landing in the middle of South Korean and Japan? I don't see how this would work.

Neither do I but that seems to be their plan.

the US has formidable strike capabilities in the form of its Tomahawk equipped submarines and ships

The US can't build enough Tomahawks to hit all the targets if what you want is to cripple Chinese industry like you talked about.
It would require months and months of dropping bombs over and over. Even with modern guided weapons.

as well as bombers deploying from Hawaii with stand off JASSMs and LRASMs

JASSM and LRASM are not cost effective for a large scale bombing campaign. At best you would use it to disable Chinese radar and air defenses.

PLA will also suffer significant casualties to their own air bases and command/control centers, as well as having used up a significant chunk of their relatively limited arsenals

The same thing would apply to the US if they wanted to do cruise missile strikes.

forward positions in Taiwan or the Ryukus is unrealistic -- China simply doesn't have the rapid airlift and sealift capabilities to support it

China does not need to make these US bases usable for themselves. They just need to deny the US the use of their bases.

US forces in the region (and the ability to rebuild and resupply places like Guam from the untouched Hawaii), the PLA will gradually trade forces in an unfavourable manner

You guys seem to think this is WW2. If the US tried that kind of crap I would just nuke Pearl Harbor and San Diego.

The US of course will then move to reinforce their carrier force in the westpac with carriers from CONTUS and then also carriers from Europe and the Middle East

You nuke the Panama and Suez canals and force them to take the long way around every single time.

US submarines operating outside of the first island chain will likely be very difficult to counter and be capable of launch LACMs with virtual impunity

Again. This is extremely limited because it is bleeping expensive. You can't even bomb Iraq with LACMs let alone China.

the PLA will need ... a robust organic naval aviation capability (aka carrier strike groups) ... a long range stealthy strike capability (see, H-20),

These sorts of conventional capabilities are massively expensive and pointless. Even the H-20 it would be easy fodder without air superiority against nations with advanced air forces like Japan or South Korea. Which is where most US Pacific deployed forces are.

All that naturally will require the PLA to continue to build up their modern fighter force that are qualitatively competitive with the US to contest air superiority against US aircraft

China needs long range fighters if you want to do a strategy like this.

a good sized fleet of competitive SSNs that are able to venture deep into the pacific to deny US SSNs a safe haven to launch LACMs, is also necessary.

You need SSBNs for the second strike capability and the SSNs to hit shipping. Against other SSNs it is a bit of a crap shoot.
 

solarz

Brigadier
China's biggest historical mistakes were from voluntarily discarding, abandoning or overlooking potential development paths, e.g. scuttling the worlds most advanced timber ship fleet in the 1600's, disregarding advancements in european military hardware and organization in the 1800's, etc.
Not to cast a bad light on your post, however it's vein of thinking is the same as previous historical mistakes "we can rely on how things were" rather than the world is a constantly changing place, and any and all opportunities must be seized to their fullest extent. China has increasingly more and more resources to explore these avenues and they should be taken.
Only by taking the second approach can China avoid finding itself back in a Ming / Qing dynasty scenario of hubris and eventual defeat.

Not saying China should neglect it's naval capabilities, but it should not follow in the footsteps of the US either.

The first thing we have to recognize is that the US is a global hegemony because it is capitalist and imperialist. Capitalism requires the exploitation of labor and resources, and imperialism essentially exports that exploitation to less fortunate nations. That is the essence of why the US requires so many bases all over the world, and it is in fact the main weakness of the US.

When China recovers Taiwan in the near future, and I have a suspicion it will happen during Xi's term, it will continue to improve its projection capabilities and establish some overseas bases, but I don't see it engaging in the kind of global dominance doctrine of the US.

As such, post-Taiwan, China and the US would actually have more reasons to cooperate than to fight, which is yet another reason why I don't think the US would be willing to expend all that much effort into fighting China over Taiwan. Despite the rhetoric, losing Taiwan will still leave them with the second island chain while defusing the main flashpoint between China and the US. The US can still pursue it's hegemony in other theatres without Chinese contestation, though I don't believe it will be able to maintain that effort for long due to internal issues.

So again, I don't believe the US will want to force a showdown with China over Taiwan, because Taiwan is not a core interest for the US. Losing Taiwan is not going to threaten it's hegemonic status.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
Not saying China should neglect it's naval capabilities, but it should not follow in the footsteps of the US either.

The first thing we have to recognize is that the US is a global hegemony because it is capitalist and imperialist. Capitalism requires the exploitation of labor and resources, and imperialism essentially exports that exploitation to less fortunate nations. That is the essence of why the US requires so many bases all over the world, and it is in fact the main weakness of the US.

When China recovers Taiwan in the near future, and I have a suspicion it will happen during Xi's term, it will continue to improve its projection capabilities and establish some overseas bases, but I don't see it engaging in the kind of global dominance doctrine of the US.

As such, post-Taiwan, China and the US would actually have more reasons to cooperate than to fight, which is yet another reason why I don't think the US would be willing to expend all that much effort into fighting China over Taiwan. Despite the rhetoric, losing Taiwan will still leave them with the second island chain while defusing the main flashpoint between China and the US. The US can still pursue it's hegemony in other theatres without Chinese contestation, though I don't believe it will be able to maintain that effort for long due to internal issues.

So again, I don't believe the US will want to force a showdown with China over Taiwan, because Taiwan is not a core interest for the US. Losing Taiwan is not going to threaten it's hegemonic status.
China should build a navy more powerful than the US ever dreamed of for two reasons: 1) Because it can. 2) To contain the US. Even with immense military power, China will not be capitalist or imperialist. Why should China permit the US to have hegemony elsewhere in the world and threaten Chinese interests abroad? Why should the second or third or whichever island chain be left to the US without contestation?

Wherever the US is in the world (and in the future, beyond it), there should be China - smiling and holding a dagger to America's throat.
 

solarz

Brigadier
China should build a navy more powerful than the US ever dreamed of for two reasons: 1) Because it can. 2) To contain the US. Even with immense military power, China will not be capitalist or imperialist. Why should China permit the US to have hegemony elsewhere in the world and threaten Chinese interests abroad? Why should the second or third or whichever island chain be left to the US without contestation?

Wherever the US is in the world (and in the future, beyond it), there should be China - smiling and holding a dagger to America's throat.

I don't think that's going to be really necessary mainly because I don't see the US lasting that long. Of course China should continue to improve, but the best strategy for defeating an imperialist hegemony like the US is to built a better society.

When exploited nations across the globe gain access to a true alternative for development, when the USD is no longer a global fiat, when the US can no longer unilaterally invade other countries because they are part of a security network backed by a China-Russia partnership, then the US will collapse under the weight of its own empty shell of an economic system.
 

ZeEa5KPul

Colonel
Registered Member
Of course China should continue to improve, but the best strategy for defeating an imperialist hegemony like the US is to built a better society.
Certainly, but that better society must also exert active pressure on its adversary to make it implode. I believe that consistent Chinese pressure over decades has a good chance of making the US implode like the Soviet Union. At the very least, it can force the US to retreat into a shell.
When exploited nations across the globe gain access to a true alternative for development, when the USD is no longer a global fiat, when the US can no longer unilaterally invade other countries because they are part of a security network backed by a China-Russia partnership, then the US will collapse under the weight of its own empty shell of an economic system.
Exactly. However, no country will wholly dump the US dollar until at least two conditions are met: 1) China is able to supply it with all the technologies it gets from the West, at comparable quality and preferably with better prices. 2) China (and allied countries like Russia) can protect it militarily from US retaliation if it decides to dump the dollar. No leader wants to be Gaddafied, and a CBG sailing nearby and showing the Chinese flag will do a lot to alleviate those fears.
 

Phead128

Captain
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
I think you have a seriously outdated view of Chinese military capabilities. All your analyses consists of what the US can do to China, while ignoring any consideration of Chinese countermeasures.

You're essentially playing chess against yourself.
I think what @Bltizo is saying is that time is on China's side, so might as well 'play chess against yourself' to maximize your chance of reunification, because reunification depends on conventional power and nuclear power. He is being extra hard on China to maximize the probability of success since time is on China's side to match US conventionally. Best case scenario is US sits out....worst case scenario US joins, but gets ass walloped because China over-prepared for the scenario because it was covered it's bases on every possible weakness.

I personally think the threat of nuclear MAD and high economic cost is enough to deter US intervention, but it doesn't hurt to be Over-prepared conventionally because time is on China's side and China can dictate the pace, momentum, timing, and place of reunification. It's China's game to lose.
 
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sferrin

Junior Member
Registered Member
Btw many drydocks are above the waterline. How to let water in without a pump???

1280px-Littoral_combat_ship_in_drydock%2C_San_Diego.jpg
In the case of a floating drydock you just sink it. I'd think that would be obvious.
 

sferrin

Junior Member
Registered Member
Does it? Nazi Germany had far less resources than China and the blockade did essentially nothing against them.

The dry docke and cranes can be hit that easily? Where's the historical precedence?
Are you serious? Modern PGMs would have no trouble whatsoever taking stuff like that down. The US was putting PGMs through specific windows and air shafts as far back as Desert Storm.
 
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