antiterror13
Brigadier
They never learn, they always thought invincible and have all the rights to do whatever they want
PLA Strategy in a Taiwan Contingency
- Thread starter pugachev_diver
- Start date
They never learn, they always thought invincible and have all the rights to do whatever they want
Except sell F-35s to Taiwan because Taiwan is gonna get conquered, so why lose your best asset to Chinese air force ;-) if Taiwan is a "Real" ally, they would have gotten F-35s just like Korea/Japan/Australia a long time ago. US is not going to defend Taiwan if it won't even sell Taiwan it's most advanced export weapon. If US believed Taiwan could have a chance at survival, they would hand out F-35s for free to counter China.
What I really want is nothing of this sort to happen at all. To me the discussion is just like playing Command and Conquer, just for fun.
As far as American resolve is concerned, I don’t think you can truly make any sweeping generalizations about it. You look at Korea, Vietnam, and Afghanistan and you can find some examples of both strong and weak resolve.
I totally agree that you need to plan for total victory, but that can only come with time at this point. I mean we are having this discussion today at this point in time, vs. 5 years from now it would be different of course.
Depends on the scenario, does China pre-emptive strike first?
- I think it depends if China struck first, a la 'Pearl Harbor' pre-emptive strike. That will definitely trigger US populace to demand blood/revenge, but I highly doubt China would do that. That was Japan's suicide lol.
- If it is a false-flag operation to provoke China and US playing victim, then that is possible, but you need thousands of deaths to justify US intervention against China. I think China is cautious enough to avoid responding to US provocations unless it's absolutely necessary and only in self-defense.
- If it is US struck first, starts shooting Chinese warships, and China defensively sinks US ships, then I don't see how you can expect US populace to demand blood/capitulation of China, when US is wading knee deep in other people's turf. That's like an expected losses, no reason to expand the war and escalate to broader capitulation of China.
China would have to pre-emptively strike like Pearl Harbor to generate that level of US resolve. Simply "Woo Hoo, Democracy Bros" is hardly sufficient, see US abandoning democracy-bros Afghanistan or South Vietnam when the costs were too high. Also, US can't even demand the geopolitical and geoeconomic surrender of North Korea, how can it expect to do same to a nuclear superpower with 2nd largest GDP in the world?
Two aspects:
- If China has the luxury to choose the timing of reunification on it's own terms, then you are right, it's better to assume "Very high US resolve" and plan accordingly against that high standard to ensure greater probability of success. Aim high, to the sky, and reality, you might just hit your target.
- BUT... If China is stuck at 1.7% GDP and Taiwan suddenly declares independence out of nowhere, we don't have the luxury of zillion CATOBARs or 5th gens, then I am willing to bet $50 dollars that US and its allies still will never militarily intervene, because the economic costs and potential escalation to nuclear realm is too high.
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antiterror13
Brigadier
Thats correct. But I think the main reason that the US is not going to sell F-35 to Taiwan is that the US know that Chinese intelligence has already infiltrated deeply within ROC armed forces. Also quite few military officers including high level actually want to have reunification with China
They were supposed to have learned the lesson in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria...
Lessons were learned tho. Lessons on how to maximized the profits of the military industrial complex.
I am guessing you are a White American guy? This is the problem with overconfidence, you won't even be landing the boot on Taiwan get it? The moment you step into Chinese territorial waters, we will sink your ships. This is not Iraq or Afghanistan or Vietnam mate. Attacking mainland China will be suicidal, we will retaliate. You have nukes, we have nukes, THE RUSSIANS ALSO HAVE NUKES.
I think you are making a few assumptions there lol
If the US and Allies go Kinetic in response to a successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan
China's greatest risk after a successful invasion of Taiwan is probably not from the US performing kinetic actions against China from/or across the western pacific but loss of access to raw materials due to embargo's from it's suppliers that are allied with the US and blockades against the rest. Even Countries that are not allied with the US would face heavy pressure to stop selling raw materials to China.
Any country that continued to supply China would have to run the gauntlet of blockades with interdiction of cargo carriers performed away from China's reach.
Up to 80% of China's petroleum products arrive by sea, stopping even half of the ships close to the source far away from China's effective power projection would have a devastating effect.
Or is it?
Because if the above was to happen then products from China would face an embargo and even if they didn't without raw materials they are not going to be produced.
Without China, Australia's economy would be rooted as they say.
What would happen to the US, all those workers selling Chinese goods at Walmart etc?
All those companies that rely of components made in China for their end products?
All the companies on the stock market that make money on the mark up of Chinese goods sold in America?
Want to buy a new refrigerator/microwave/tv/stereo ......?
Imagine the nightmare of sorting out which Chinese are good Chinese in America and which ones should go to interment camps. Heck just sorting which Asians are Chinese would be an huge issue with the public.
After both sides take out each other GPS systems we will be back to using street directories, countless millennials and zoomers will be lost in traffic.
China is the world's factory, what happens to economies when most of the factories abruptly stop?
Anyone dreaming of a mere 100 stealth bombers laying waste to China's military complex is dreaming. How many will be left after a 100 sorties with a mere 1% attrition rate? Steath bombers are not invisible some will be shot down
Likewise barrages of subsonic cruise missiles against an adversary with a modern air defence system, that has seemingly be preparing for such as event. Eventually both sides will run out of missiles and start throwing rocks ;-) It took time to shut down Iraqs 70's air defence system. China is a near peer adversary (if not peer in air defence systems), China is absolutely massive in size compared to Iraq.
Grand Naval campaigns are going to incur some heavy losses. Wiping out the Chinese navy at a dreaming 5 to one rate still going to cost 10 ships/subs.
All those unemployed folks who lost their jobs to save/reclaim Taiwan watching the losses on their Chinese made device of choice (TV iphone, Droid, Laptop) are they going to rally around the flag?
If Taiwan doesn't do stupid and declare independence, China can just wait until there aren't enough military aged males to mount a credible defence. Taiwan has one of the lowest reproduction rates in the world.
China Invading Taiwan would be a disaster for Taiwan and a big hiccup in the global Semi Conductor supply chain.
USA et al going full kinetic in response would be a disaster for most economies in the developed world.
If China takes Taiwan it is theirs. A long war with China would be disastrous for the world's economy, we would all be going cold turkey on our fix of cheap Chinese stuff. A managed economy like China would most likely fair better that an open market economy.
That's not say China successfully invading Taiwan is a foregone conclusion. It's unlikely to happen without some notice, assembling an invasion is surly going to be a noticeable event. If there is enough time for the US et al to get enough assets in the area it will be a Mexican stand off. The nearby two CG are probably not going to cut it. Such a stand off is only credible if evenly matched. No matter how much one signs up to american exceptionalism two CG are no much to the full force that China could bare down on them. Planning of any invasion would surely start with where are those CGs and how could we ambush them if the US responds.
When Biden said just we will defend Taiwan he was talking to the voters that think he/democrats are weak on defence.
China's greatest risk after a successful invasion of Taiwan is probably not from the US performing kinetic actions against China from/or across the western pacific but loss of access to raw materials due to embargo's from it's suppliers that are allied with the US and blockades against the rest. Even Countries that are not allied with the US would face heavy pressure to stop selling raw materials to China.
Any country that continued to supply China would have to run the gauntlet of blockades with interdiction of cargo carriers performed away from China's reach.
Up to 80% of China's petroleum products arrive by sea, stopping even half of the ships close to the source far away from China's effective power projection would have a devastating effect.
Or is it?
Because if the above was to happen then products from China would face an embargo and even if they didn't without raw materials they are not going to be produced.
Without China, Australia's economy would be rooted as they say.
What would happen to the US, all those workers selling Chinese goods at Walmart etc?
All those companies that rely of components made in China for their end products?
All the companies on the stock market that make money on the mark up of Chinese goods sold in America?
Want to buy a new refrigerator/microwave/tv/stereo ......?
Imagine the nightmare of sorting out which Chinese are good Chinese in America and which ones should go to interment camps. Heck just sorting which Asians are Chinese would be an huge issue with the public.
After both sides take out each other GPS systems we will be back to using street directories, countless millennials and zoomers will be lost in traffic.
China is the world's factory, what happens to economies when most of the factories abruptly stop?
Anyone dreaming of a mere 100 stealth bombers laying waste to China's military complex is dreaming. How many will be left after a 100 sorties with a mere 1% attrition rate? Steath bombers are not invisible some will be shot down
Likewise barrages of subsonic cruise missiles against an adversary with a modern air defence system, that has seemingly be preparing for such as event. Eventually both sides will run out of missiles and start throwing rocks ;-) It took time to shut down Iraqs 70's air defence system. China is a near peer adversary (if not peer in air defence systems), China is absolutely massive in size compared to Iraq.
Grand Naval campaigns are going to incur some heavy losses. Wiping out the Chinese navy at a dreaming 5 to one rate still going to cost 10 ships/subs.
All those unemployed folks who lost their jobs to save/reclaim Taiwan watching the losses on their Chinese made device of choice (TV iphone, Droid, Laptop) are they going to rally around the flag?
If Taiwan doesn't do stupid and declare independence, China can just wait until there aren't enough military aged males to mount a credible defence. Taiwan has one of the lowest reproduction rates in the world.
China Invading Taiwan would be a disaster for Taiwan and a big hiccup in the global Semi Conductor supply chain.
USA et al going full kinetic in response would be a disaster for most economies in the developed world.
If China takes Taiwan it is theirs. A long war with China would be disastrous for the world's economy, we would all be going cold turkey on our fix of cheap Chinese stuff. A managed economy like China would most likely fair better that an open market economy.
That's not say China successfully invading Taiwan is a foregone conclusion. It's unlikely to happen without some notice, assembling an invasion is surly going to be a noticeable event. If there is enough time for the US et al to get enough assets in the area it will be a Mexican stand off. The nearby two CG are probably not going to cut it. Such a stand off is only credible if evenly matched. No matter how much one signs up to american exceptionalism two CG are no much to the full force that China could bare down on them. Planning of any invasion would surely start with where are those CGs and how could we ambush them if the US responds.
When Biden said just we will defend Taiwan he was talking to the voters that think he/democrats are weak on defence.