Philippines Vs Taiwan... Troubled Waters

joshuatree

Captain
So does this mean the boat was in disputed water?

It means the fishing boat was never in any of the Philippine's territorial waters or even contiguous waters. A lot of people like to call EEZ waters territorial waters and its downright misleading. This highlights the severity of the Philippine response in non-territorial waters.

On the issue of disputed waters, of course, each believes their EEZ boundaries so how much is disputed depends on viewpoint but considering there is no formal agreement, it's a grey area. I'm not even entirely sure what is meant by Taiwan's temporary enforcement limit at 20 degrees north latitude. Clearly, it's not a boundary for their perceived EEZ. Maybe a line where they decided the CGA will not cross to reduce confrontation? Like a DMZ?
 

nemo

Junior Member
I think this demostrates that within the PN gvernment, at the highest levels, there is disagreement on what to do.

One faction (the one that ended up carrying the day) does not want to admit direct responsibility and so are politically trying to put it off on the people as a whole, and using the One China policy to justify it.

In addition, they clearly are split on how to compensate the family.

In the end, it shows indecisiveness on the decison maker's part. Influenced one way, then another, then another, and then a final time in the space of one evening.

The last decision, IMHO, was simply wrong, and they would have been best advised to go with either of the two letters that they wrote to the ROC, that the ROC was willing to accept. If they had, this whole thing would have been long over.

Actually, I see it differently -- the diplomats are sacrificed for the bumbling of their superiors.

The diplomat's on the ground knows what it take to resolve this -- and given the preponderance of balance of power, they really have no choice. The best scenario is probably this -- the diplomats apologize, then they are publicly recalled and sacked as a political cover, but the apology is allowed to stand. The people involved are tried, but allow to escape (just like 2006).

The flow of the event is this -- the first letter was the result of negotiation by the diplomats with Taiwanese government. The diplomats returned to Manila for consultation, and that letter was rejected by Philippines and hence the second letter, which was carried by the diplomat to Taiwan on that disastrous meeting. Of course Taiwanese rejected that, hence the 3rd letter. And Philippines government overrule the diplomats and rejected that, and returned essentially to the 2nd letter. Of course Taiwanese blow up -- if the emissary is not empowered to do the negotiation, it's just wasting time. Hence the full sanction.

I don't see this being blown over other than Philippine acceding to every last one of Taiwan's demand in humiliation. Taiwan may actually hurt more in monetary terms by economic sanction, but as a percentage of GDP, it's going to be much less. Militarily, Philippine is not even in the same class. Unless they are wiling to resort to terrorism, I don't see them have a chance of doing any damage to Taiwan. US doesn't want to intervene -- if they did, they may do fatal damage to rabidly anti-China DPP, and the worse circumstances, unify with China in a bout of anti-Americanism. Japan didn't want to get involved -- Japan just bought off Taiwan with fishing right -- intervene and that investment will be for nothing. It's easier just throwing Philippines overboard.

In the end, Philippine probably wished that they just accepted the first draft.
 

Player 0

Junior Member
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This came out just a bit earlier.

If this is true, i'd say this incident really helped shoot Aquino's policy in the foot, to call for a decrease of arms and a code of conduct rings rather hollow when you yourself seem to be trigger happy and unwilling to take responsibility for the consequences of your actions.
 

Player 0

Junior Member
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Asia Time's only piece to mention the Taiwan-Philippines row, the author is very clearly in favor of everything the Philippines has done up to this point, even taking at face value the Philippines logic on not apologizing or negotiating for fear of upsetting the mainland.

Despite that he still admits that Taiwan pretty much holds all the cards and has nothing to lose, the Philippines offers nothing that Taiwan couldn't get from the mainland, Taiwan should push this are hard as possible and get as much as possible.
 

vesicles

Colonel
The flow of the event is this -- the first letter was the result of negotiation by the diplomats with Taiwanese government. The diplomats returned to Manila for consultation, and that letter was rejected by Philippines and hence the second letter, which was carried by the diplomat to Taiwan on that disastrous meeting. Of course Taiwanese rejected that, hence the 3rd letter. And Philippines government overrule the diplomats and rejected that, and returned essentially to the 2nd letter. Of course Taiwanese blow up -- if the emissary is not empowered to do the negotiation, it's just wasting time. Hence the full sanction.

The flow of events you mentioned should be done behind closed doors within the Philippines govn't. Once they reached a consensus, then issue a letter to Taiwan. That, my friend, should be the policy in any kind of meaningful organization, be it a family dealing with its neighbors, a company dealing with other companies, etc. You do not allow different departments to issue their own official statements in the name of the govn't that might actually contradict the position of the govn't. That should NEVER happen. The fact that the Philippines govn't allowed, willingly or unwillingly, different depts to issue contradictory statements TWICE demonstrates that the Philippines govn't is in complete chaos.
 

nemo

Junior Member
The flow of events you mentioned should be done behind closed doors within the Philippines govn't. Once they reached a consensus, then issue a letter to Taiwan. That, my friend, should be the policy in any kind of meaningful organization, be it a family dealing with its neighbors, a company dealing with other companies, etc. You do not allow different departments to issue their own official statements in the name of the govn't that might actually contradict the position of the govn't. That should NEVER happen. The fact that the Philippines govn't allowed, willingly or unwillingly, different depts to issue contradictory statements TWICE demonstrates that the Philippines govn't is in complete chaos.

I don't agree with this interpretation. Before Taiwan invoked the sanctions, I don't see anyone *INSIDE* Philippine treated this as anything consequential or intend to apologize. The only one who has an idea of how serious this is are the diplomats, and they failed to make this clear to the Philippine government -- or thought they did. It seems to me that no one told the diplomats that they do not have the authority to negotiate, so they presumed they do.

Philippine government was not in chaos -- its' that they made a very bad judgement that this is not serious and will go away if ignored.
 

MwRYum

Major
I don't agree with this interpretation. Before Taiwan invoked the sanctions, I don't see anyone *INSIDE* Philippine treated this as anything consequential or intend to apologize. The only one who has an idea of how serious this is are the diplomats, and they failed to make this clear to the Philippine government -- or thought they did. It seems to me that no one told the diplomats that they do not have the authority to negotiate, so they presumed they do.

Philippine government was not in chaos -- its' that they made a very bad judgement that this is not serious and will go away if ignored.

That even more implies the Philippine government is disorganized, first their law enforcement screw up big time (again), then their diplomats and envoys have no proper authority to negotiate, in the meantime they do everything to aggravate the other side, but hoping it'll all go away by itself and Taiwan's response will remain only verbal?

No it isn't chaos, it's just very retarded management. How could the Filipinos tolerate such is beyond belief.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
That even more implies the Philippine government is disorganized, first their law enforcement screw up big time (again), then their diplomats and envoys have no proper authority to negotiate, in the meantime they do everything to aggravate the other side, but hoping it'll all go away by itself and Taiwan's response will remain only verbal?

No it isn't chaos, it's just very retarded management. How could the Filipinos tolerate such is beyond belief.

How does any incompetent government stay in power? They draw the attention of the masses away from their own ineptitude by pointing at some 'grave' external threat and play the nationalism card even if they have to create that threat themselves. Anyone who dares to question the government when the country is facing an external threat can be easily besmirched as unpatriotic because they are not supporting their government when a time of national unity is needed blah blah blah.

That is partly why the Philippines seemed so willing and even eager to play the cat's pawn of the US in deliberately trying to antagonise China knowing that China's response would be tempered because China does not want to give the US any diplomatic ammunition, yet the kind of measured but firm response China would give to Filipino provocations would be the perfect distraction to rally the masses and keep their own scandals and incompetence out of the headlines of mainstream political discussions with minimal risk of having to face any real threats or consequences. In effect, its like some kid prodding a caged tiger with a long stick. He might get a roar or two in response and impress his mates, but there is little real risk of him getting bitten.

Having been outplayed by China over the Scarborough Shoal stand off, maybe the Philippines decided to go after smaller prey, or their forces are even more incompetent than commonly expected and mistook the Taiwan fishing boat for Chinese when they were looking to start round two with China.

I have always suspected that the shooting may have been more than accidental. Indeed, one of the main stumbling blocks that led to the breakdown of talks was a firm commitment by the Philippines to mount a joint investigation and properly punish the guilty parties.

If you look at it from the POV of the Philippines, an apology is just words, and they seem willing to apologies so it seems odd that they would nit pick so much over the exact wording and who delivered it. It just all seems far too petty and insignificant to be the real cause of the breakdown in talks.

Similarly, compensation for the families of the dead fisherman would have been a few million tops, and it isn't coming out of the pockets of the politicians, so why would they make so much fuss over pocket change?

The very fact that the Philippines' envoy was initially willing to pretty much agree to all of Taiwan's terms shows that there was no firm objection to any of them as a matter of principle.

So, either the Philippines' government flip flopped all over the place, or it might have belatedly emerged that the coast guard captain who opened fire might not have been acting entirely on his own initiative. If the coast guard was only following orders, the captain sure as hell isn't going to just shut up and take it when he is made the scapegoat and left out to flap in the breeze. Thus anyone higher up the food chain who might have given the order would have done all they can to make sure the investigation is white washed.

It sounds a little far fetched, but it strikes me as the most likely explanation. If the Philippines coast guard was indeed so incompetent and trigger happy, I dare say there would have been far more incidents. In addition, doing what amounts to a random drive-by doesn't really fit with past behaviour, when the Philippines coast guard seemed more interested in boarding and than ransoming fishing boats and their crews for cash from owners and families. Shooting up fishing boats and then fleeing the scene doesn't really make a lot of sense when you can capture them and earn a tidy sum from 'fines' and confiscating anything of value you find onboard.
 
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nemo

Junior Member
It sounds a little far fetched, but it strikes me as the most likely explanation. If the Philippines coast guard was indeed so incompetent and trigger happy, I dare say there would have been far more incidents. In addition, doing what amounts to a random drive-by doesn't really fit with past behaviour, when the Philippines coast guard seemed more interested in boarding and than ransoming fishing boats and their crews for cash from owners and families. Shooting up fishing boats and then fleeing the scene doesn't really make a lot of sense when you can capture them and earn a tidy sum from 'fines' and confiscating anything of value you find onboard.

You may be right about this.

It's rather curious that the only compromises from 2nd to 4th draft (which are essentially Philippine government's positions) are official apology (on behalf of Philippine government) and fishery talk. The ones which they did not give a inch is the investigation and that the persons involved will be held personally responsible for damages and compensation -- compensation are pretty much agreed to from 'donations from the Philippine people' even in the 1st and 3rd draft (Taiwan's positions).

If this is in fact the case, that explains a lot. The ones responsible didn't want to disclose the fact to their own negotiators, because of they are not core part of the administration so this may be leaked. The negotiators gave these away because they don't see that as important -- hence they are forcibly overruled.

If this is true, thing just got a lot worse. Instead of an incident, this is a full blown casus belli. Taiwan may actually got it right -- it's cold blooded murder.
 

vesicles

Colonel
I don't agree with this interpretation. Before Taiwan invoked the sanctions, I don't see anyone *INSIDE* Philippine treated this as anything consequential or intend to apologize. The only one who has an idea of how serious this is are the diplomats, and they failed to make this clear to the Philippine government -- or thought they did. It seems to me that no one told the diplomats that they do not have the authority to negotiate, so they presumed they do.

Philippine government was not in chaos -- its' that they made a very bad judgement that this is not serious and will go away if ignored.

I am not doubting the potential disagreement between different depts within the govn't. Indeed, it might well be that only the diplomats saw the seriousness of the situation. they could apologize in private to Taiwan and could do a million other things in the name of their dept. However, they can not and must not issue official letters to Taiwan in the name of the govn't without the approval of the govn't.

The only one who has an idea of how serious this is are the diplomats, and they failed to make this clear to the Philippine government -- or thought they did.

OK, this doesn't make any sense what-so-ever. If the diplomats failed to make this clear to the Philippines govn't, the first and third apologizing letters should NOT be issued at all!!!!!! How was it possible that the diplomats thought it was OK to explicitly contradict the govn't in public, especially if it's the diplomats who potentially understood the seriousness of the issue at hands? The diplomats should know the whole world is watching. Even more importantly, they knew their enemies were watching. They would not want to do anything that would potentially make a fool out of themselves. No one in their right mind would do such thing.

The first and third letters were the complete opposite of the second and the fourth letters. How could anyone THOUGHT they had convinced the govn't to change their position when the difference was almost black and white. Even they THOUGHT they had done the impossible, the final draft of the letter would have to be checked by the govn't before being issued. This would especially be the case when the govn't knew the diplomats disagreed with them. The PH govn't would naturally want to make sure their position is explained clearly in the letter and make sure the diplomats didn't stab them in the back. They would demand the letter to be sent to them before being officially issued to Taiwan.

It seems to me that no one told the diplomats that they do not have the authority to negotiate, so they presumed they do.

This statement alone demonstrates how chaotic the PH govn't is. No one told the diplomats what their authority is?????? My goodness!! So no one told the diplomats what they can and cannot do when handing them the position?? so you think it's absolutely OK and not chaotic when you hire someone and put this person in an office and not telling him/her what their job is and what authority they have? Your statement above would be the utmost demonstration of chaos and incompetence of a govn't.

Philippine government was not in chaos -- its' that they made a very bad judgement that this is not serious and will go away if ignored.

Bad judgement or not, a competent govn't should present a unified front. If they want to apologize, fine. Apologize. If they don't want to apologize and want to play hard ball, fine as well. Play hard ball. But be consistent about it. You canNOT keep changing your position back and forth 4 times in one night. That is chaos. That is the very definition of chaos. And everything scenario you listed is evidence for it.
 
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