Philippines Vs Taiwan... Troubled Waters

solarz said:

I would say #1.

You are making two problematic assumptions.

1- You assume that TW can force PH to pay for their act. That is not clear from the current developments.

2- You assume that the PH people will blame the Aquino administration for the loss of their jobs. Remember that this is the same administration that is still being seen as "tough on foreign policy" even after completely losing the Scarborough Shoal stand-off.

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#1 is no longer an option since sanction has already been invoked. If Philippine back down now, it's #2.

1. Taiwan clearly has leverage economically. Militarily Philippine is powerless. So tell me how Philippine can weasel out of this? If you say Uncle Sam -- forget it -- US will lose more if it intervenes on the side of Philippine.

2. Blaming Aquino? It already happened.

nemo said:

#1 is no longer an option since sanction has already been invoked. If Philippine back down now, it's #2.

1. Taiwan clearly has leverage economically. Militarily Philippine is powerless. So tell me how Philippine can weasel out of this? If you say Uncle Sam -- forget it -- US will lose more if it intervenes on the side of Philippine.

2. Blaming Aquino? It already happened.

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1. TW needs to do something with its military in order to achieve an impression. So far, doing exercises on its own side of the enforcement line hasn't impressed PH much.

2. One news article doesn't mean much. We'll have to wait and see if public opinion will actually turn against Aquino.

I'm afraid this issue is getting old as time passes by and it seems to be in favor of the Filipino Aquino administrations favor in this issue. I can guaranteed the Taiwanese people will not forget this any time soon.

nemo said:

#1 is no longer an option since sanction has already been invoked. If Philippine back down now, it's #2.

1. Taiwan clearly has leverage economically. Militarily Philippine is powerless. So tell me how Philippine can weasel out of this? If you say Uncle Sam -- forget it -- US will lose more if it intervenes on the side of Philippine.

2. Blaming Aquino? It already happened.

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They can simply wait for time to passes by. If there are not enough western media to cover the incident than it will work in favor of the Philippines (no international pressure = no problem). I think that's what Aquino was hoping to happen and sadly it is.

Equation said:

I'm afraid this issue is getting old as time passes by and it seems to be in favor of the Filipino Aquino administrations favor in this issue. I can guaranteed the Taiwanese people will not forget this any time soon.

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Its not over till both sides decide to give up, just because Aquino thinks he can ignore it and hope it will go away doesn't mean it will, if you honestly think just letting a couple days go by with little happen is enough to say its over then Taiwan should remind everyone of their displeasure with mass deportations and embargoes.

The Philippine government and the Aquino administration have lost any remaining credibility they have over this past 2 weeks, They are again totally incompetent if not totally irresponsible, with all the flip-flop and contradictory statements made by the Aquino's spokepersons, personal envoy and diplomatic representatives. They have violated their own oath and made a mockery of "Code of Conduct" which they are a signatory of.

Throughout this 2 weeks,
- The Philippine government lied that the shooting was self defense. There has been no evidence that this is the case.
- The Philippine government lied that the shooting was aimed to disable the engine and not to kill. Over 50 bullets shot at the cabin and hull proves the shooting was meant to harm and kill.
- The Philippine government lied that the shooting occured in Philippine territorial waters. GPS coordinates from the fishing boad contradicts this and no evidence has been presented to refure this.
- The Philippine government lied that the fisherman's death does not deserve an apology
- The Aquino Administration lied that it will apologize for the fisherman's death. Apparently, the administration wanted only the Filipino people to apologize for the death.
- The Philippine government lied that the Philippine government is willing to jointly investigate the incident. The Philippine DOJ contradicted Philippine diplomatic representatives invitation for a joint investigation.
- The Aquino Administration though the President's spkeperson lied that the Philippine government will investigate the incident expeditiously, openly and transparently. The investigation is being held behind closed door and at a leisurely pace,
- The Aquino Administration lied that the Philippine government will provide compensation to the fisherman's family. Again Donations from Filipino people was proposed as the source of the compensation.
- The Aquino Administration lied that the Philippine will bring whomever is responsible to justice. No Justice has been served yet. We shall see how this suspicuosly secretive investigation can deliver.
- The Aquino Administration spokeperson lied that the Philippine Coast guard video will be released without a problem. Nobody outside of the Aqiono investigative team have seen this secret video evidence after 2 weeks
- The Aquino Administration lied that Antonio Basilio is the Philippines' representative to Taiwan. Apparently he is un-authorized to represent the Aquino administration and the Philippine government.

Equation said:

They can simply wait for time to passes by. If there are not enough western media to cover the incident than it will work in favor of the Philippines (no international pressure = no problem). I think that's what Aquino was hoping to happen and sadly it is.

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Normally, that would work, but not now. In this case, the oppositions are flogging Ma, should he retreat a step. Ma is a pretty easy going and mild --even meek -- guy, and even now he is trying to de-escalate this. The fact that Philippine even managed set him off is telling how badly Philippine bungled this, not to mention the severity of the responses.

And do note Taiwan still have room to escalate this further -- expulsion of Philippine workers, expulsion of Philippine fishing boats from Taiwan's maximum EEZ, and arrest of any Philippine government ship trying to exercise any kind of authority in the overlapped EEZ.

And would you believe Philippine is still trying to piss of Taiwan even at this stage? Taiwan refused to cooperate with Philippine's investigators because they do not want to reciprocate by releasing the video of the incident.

I really wonder Philippine is masochistic by nature -- want someone else to beat them up so they can say they are bullied. I cannot see how anyone is going to get political advantage out of this -- but someone evidently do.

t_co said:

My college friend at State just had his Memorial Day vacation canceled because he and his boss have to conduct behind-the-scenes 'shuttle diplomacy' between Taiwan and the Philippines. Things are apparently so bad not even back-channel discussions are happening anymore.

In his words:

"One side is treating this way too hard and the other side is taking it way too easy. We've gotta find a middle path here or else"

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I'm intrigue with the "or else" part of it...what could possibly happen, in the scenarios of the US playbook, that "or else" can lead to?

nemo said:

I really wonder Philippine is masochistic by nature -- want someone else to beat them up so they can say they are bullied. I cannot see how anyone is going to get political advantage out of this -- but someone evidently do.

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Not so much masochist as incredibly irresponsible and short-sighted.

MwRYum said:

I'm intrigue with the "or else" part of it...what could possibly happen, in the scenarios of the US playbook, that "or else" can lead to?

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Or else US is going to suffer collateral damage. The only way US is going to suffer least damage in this affair is keep the lines of communication open and the matter resolves itself without either side held US responsible for favoring the other side.

The traditional ways of resolving the issue when you cannot talk the parties involved out of it are offering bribe or issue threat. Unfortunately, neither is feasible right now.

Any bribe Obama administration promised cannot be delivered because he does not have the political capital to force the issue. Even if it's something agreed to by the Republicans, someone is going to attach a rider to it -- and chances are that it's something Obama does not like. So that leaves the threats.

Threatening either side is expensive in either case --

Taiwan: Any economic threat will be more then make up by China. Withhold arms sale? Didn't you want to strength Taiwan against China? And Taiwan is no longer flushed with cash -- so they may take the opportunity to save some money. And any sign of favoring Philippine will be tremendously damaging to rabidly anti-China DPP, and gave China an opportunity to profit from this.

Philippine: kiss your pivot goodbye and forget about new bases in Philippine. Only a treaty ally can taunt China in relative safely -- and that is only when US retains naval supremacy. Don't expect Vietnam to continue the pivot alone -- it knows from experience (1979) that even a superpower cannot save it if it pisses China off. No one sane wants to fight a land war with China on its borders.

So the best option for US, again, is keep the lines of communication open and hope the situation resolves itself -- without anyone holding US responsible for favoring the other side.