Philippines Vs Taiwan... Troubled Waters

MwRYum

Major
Or else US is going to suffer collateral damage. The only way US is going to suffer least damage in this affair is keep the lines of communication open and the matter resolves itself without either side held US responsible for favoring the other side.

The traditional ways of resolving the issue when you cannot talk the parties involved out of it are offering bribe or issue threat. Unfortunately, neither is feasible right now.

Any bribe Obama administration promised cannot be delivered because he does not have the political capital to force the issue. Even if it's something agreed to by the Republicans, someone is going to attach a rider to it -- and chances are that it's something Obama does not like. So that leaves the threats.

Threatening either side is expensive in either case --

Taiwan: Any economic threat will be more then make up by China. Withhold arms sale? Didn't you want to strength Taiwan against China? And Taiwan is no longer flushed with cash -- so they may take the opportunity to save some money. And any sign of favoring Philippine will be tremendously damaging to rabidly anti-China DPP, and gave China an opportunity to profit from this.

Philippine: kiss your pivot goodbye and forget about new bases in Philippine. Only a treaty ally can taunt China in relative safely -- and that is only when US retains naval supremacy. Don't expect Vietnam to continue the pivot alone -- it knows from experience (1979) that even a superpower cannot save it if it pisses China off. No one sane wants to fight a land war with China on its borders.

So the best option for US, again, is keep the lines of communication open and hope the situation resolves itself -- without anyone holding US responsible for favoring the other side.

Then the US can do practically nothing - one side won't let it slip - despite President Ma being such a Mr. Teflon, letting it slide in this case just won't be feasible, unless he wants this to bite the KMT in the coming elections; whereas those clowns in Manila just wish it'd go away by itself.

But seriously, can Philippines really think they can do without the US, even for a day?
 
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Equation

Lieutenant General
Normally, that would work, but not now. In this case, the oppositions are flogging Ma, should he retreat a step. Ma is a pretty easy going and mild --even meek -- guy, and even now he is trying to de-escalate this. The fact that Philippine even managed set him off is telling how badly Philippine bungled this, not to mention the severity of the responses.

And do note Taiwan still have room to escalate this further -- expulsion of Philippine workers, expulsion of Philippine fishing boats from Taiwan's maximum EEZ, and arrest of any Philippine government ship trying to exercise any kind of authority in the overlapped EEZ.

And would you believe Philippine is still trying to piss of Taiwan even at this stage? Taiwan refused to cooperate with Philippine's investigators because they do not want to reciprocate by releasing the video of the incident.


I understand what you're saying, but if there's no one outside of Taiwan and the Philippines to report this incident struggle than whose going to care? If the Aquino administration is not facing any kind of UN or international community pressure than he's willing to just ignore whatever apology Taiwan demands of him.

I say Taiwan should do what the Malaysian did to Philippines several months ago when the two has a row with each other territorial dispute by hacking into the government website. It got so bad that the two side decided to call for a "ceasefire" of sort. I'm sure Taiwanese had some skillful hackers to pull it off, heck even some overseas and mainland Chinese can help them out.

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nemo

Junior Member
I understand what you're saying, but if there's no one outside of Taiwan and the Philippines to report this incident struggle than whose going to care? If the Aquino administration is not facing any kind of UN or international community pressure than he's willing to just ignore whatever apology Taiwan demands of him.

I say Taiwan should do what the Malaysian did to Philippines several months ago when the two has a row with each other territorial dispute by hacking into the government website. It got so bad that the two side decided to call for a "ceasefire" of sort. I'm sure Taiwanese had some skillful hackers to pull it off, heck even some overseas and mainland Chinese can help them out.

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That has already happened. Compare to Taiwan, Philippine is virtually unarmed. It is said that over 2/3 of the Philippine government site has already been hacked. Note the same thing didn't happen to Taiwanese. There is no point for cease fire, at least from Taiwan's perspective.

As for the international pressure -- initially the account are skewed toward Philippine because Western reporters are too lazy to research coverage NOT in English. But now Taiwan has set their lobbyists in motion, and you now start to see Taiwanese viewpoints.

As for Philippine succumb to Taiwan's pressure, it's just a matter of time. And it's *INTERNAL* pressure that's going to matter more than the international pressure. Philippine's foreign workers in Taiwan has a visa limitation of 3 years -- so each year, you are going to lose a third, if this goes on. Taiwan is suspending tourism, that's about 100K per year. Taiwan is suspending their self imposed limitation on the EEZ, so Taiwan is fishing right outside Philippine's territorial sea under the protection of Taiwanese navy and coast guards, and there isn't a thing Philippine can do about it -- even Taiwanese coast guard alone is larger than Philippine's navy and coast guard combined, and any of Taiwan's warships can sink the whole Philippine navy without taking any damage. Oh, did anyone mention Taiwan's navy is 11th largest in the world by tonnage, having recently overtaken by South Korea?

Yes, Philippine is going to buckle. It's just a matter of time. And no one is going to stop Taiwanese -- US and Japanese cannot, China actively supporting, and no one else cared enough -- and they have better relationship with Taiwan anyway. [Correction -- Vietnam cared, but even they know better then pissing off Taiwan now. Vietnam was going to arrest a Taiwanese fishing boat, then they suddenly backed off when Taiwan deployed their navy off the coast of Philippine] So I really question whether anyone on Philippine side really think this through, and weight this against any (questionable) domestic political points they gained from this.
 
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joshuatree

Captain
As for Philippine succumb to Taiwan's pressure, it's just a matter of time. And it's *INTERNAL* pressure that's going to matter more than the international pressure. Philippine's foreign workers in Taiwan has a visa limitation of 3 years -- so each year, you are going to lose a third, if this goes no.

The Philippines is counting on the fact that their citizens speak varying degrees of English as an edge when it comes to being OFWs. So some in that circle actually believe Taiwan's electronic sector won't be able to handle losing all those Filipino foreign workers. Maybe if Taiwan proactively starts to source elsewhere for their foreign workers in electronic factories, the Philippines will really start paying attention? Seems like Bangladesh is the newest place for English speaking OFWs.
 

nemo

Junior Member
The Philippines is counting on the fact that their citizens speak varying degrees of English as an edge when it comes to being OFWs. So some in that circle actually believe Taiwan's electronic sector won't be able to handle losing all those Filipino foreign workers. Maybe if Taiwan proactively starts to source elsewhere for their foreign workers in electronic factories, the Philippines will really start paying attention? Seems like Bangladesh is the newest place for English speaking OFWs.

You are saying Taiwan cannot replace the workers in 3 years? And you are forgetting one source of labor -- China, who now have better English second language eduction than Taiwan. And the difficulty in working in Taiwan isn't English, but the skill in *CHINESE*, so I doubt Bangladeshi can replace Philippines -- but more than enough in China, where 90K workers are just a drop in the bucket.
 

joshuatree

Captain
You are saying Taiwan cannot replace the workers in 3 years? And you are forgetting one source of labor -- China, who now have better English second language eduction than Taiwan. And the difficulty in working in Taiwan isn't English, but the skill in *CHINESE*, so I doubt Bangladeshi can replace Philippines -- but more than enough in China, where 90K workers are just a drop in the bucket.

No, I'm saying Taiwan still needs to proactively work on sourcing their OFWs elsewhere if wanting to demonstrate boycotting the Philippines won't impact them as the Filipinos are expecting so.

I have not forgotten about China but I've also factored in the potential Taiwan domestic politics on allowing how many OFWs from China, etc.

You've missed the point I referenced which is specifically the electronics industry so proficiency in English is more important than Chinese based on the worldwide audience for electronics. Obviously the current Filipino OFWs can do the job despite the language barrier with Chinese. And that was the skill set the Filipinos are touting which I already mentioned.
 

Player 0

Junior Member
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Some more reports of this by Al Jazeera with more in depth coverage on economic relations, Taiwan is actually the 10th largest investor and 6th largest trading partner to the Philippines. The Philippines ambassador and the Taiwanese businesses directly affected of course don't want any trouble, but how much is the Philippines worth to Taiwan in return?

If the Philippines want so badly to end it then they should've thought of that before, now they have to face the consequences, Ma is going to bleed them for all they're worth.
 

nemo

Junior Member
You've missed the point I referenced which is specifically the electronics industry so proficiency in English is more important than Chinese based on the worldwide audience for electronics. Obviously the current Filipino OFWs can do the job despite the language barrier with Chinese. And that was the skill set the Filipinos are touting which I already mentioned.

That's actually BS -- now I think more about it. All low level workers requires is to communicate with their superiors. But not very many people outside Chinese sphere can speak Chinese, not to mention writing, and not very many Taiwanese can speak any foreign language other than English. Hence they are not using their English skill to do the job, but rather to communicate with their boss and co-workers. Hence Filipinos' English is no real competitive advantage if his competitor can speak Chinese. Filipinos' advantage compare to other SE Asia is they have more people who know English, but if Taiwan ever improve their relations with China, then that advantage goes away.

Don't you think that of all these talk by the Filipinos about how Taiwan's sanction damage Taiwanese have a distinct stink of sourness. They know that they cannot respond in kind, so all they can say is this hurt you more than it hurt me. If it truly does not hurt, then they wouldn't even mentioned it. And the point of the sanction is to hurt the other side -- whether your side suffers collateral damage is another matter. Judging by how Filipino's are whining about it, it's pretty successful. Taiwanese certainly haven't complain about them yet -- since when Filipino suddenly are more concerned about Taiwanese interest rather than their own?
 
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Preux

Junior Member
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MANILA, Philippines - Initial findings in the investigation into the fatal shooting of a suspected Taiwanese poacher off Batanes last May 9 indicate criminal negligence on the part of Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) personnel involved, a source privy to the probe said yesterday.

This developed as Justice Secretary Leila de Lima said a team of National Bureau of Investigation (NBI) agents is ready to fly to Taiwan and is just awaiting information on some “arrangements” with Taipei through the Manila Economic and Cultural Office (MECO).

De Lima said the NBI has “bits and pieces of initial findings” and is beginning to draft a report.

The STAR learned from a source that coast guard personnel manning the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) patrol vessel may face criminal and administrative charges for possible violations of rules of engagement, excessive use of force, and neglect of duty.

PCG personnel admitted having fired warning shots at two Taiwanese vessels some 39 nautical miles off Bantayan Island in the Balintang Channel. Authorities said such warning shot is not allowed under the rules of engagement.

There is excessive use of force if the 50 bullet holes reportedly found on the fishing vessel can be proven to have come from the firearms of PCG personnel.

Headlines ( Article MRec ), pagematch: 1, sectionmatch: 1


In its incident report submitted to the NBI, the PCG confirmed that its personnel left the site after firing at the fishing vessel without checking on the victim.

The source said they have to wait for the findings of the NBI team from Taiwan before making conclusions.

De Lima again refused to confirm the “initial findings,” but said NBI agents are expected to gather enough evidence in Taiwan to “validate these preliminary results.”

She also said there’s no more stopping the flight of the NBI team to Taipei.

“I have standing clearance for the NBI team to leave anytime once all the needed arrangements have been made through MECO in Taiwan,” De Lima told reporters.

MECO head Amadeo Perez, however, said visas had already been issued to eight NBI agents and forensic experts and that De Lima already agreed to the demand of Taiwanese investigators that they be allowed to see the video footage of the May 9 encounter.

“Secretary De Lima said she did not refuse to show them the video. She said the Taiwanese investigators would be allowed to see the video once their delegation is completed since some of them were still on their way here,” Perez explained in a phone interview. “It would be up to Sec. de Lima when she wants the team to leave.”

But when asked for confirmation, the justice secretary replied: “I myself am waiting for word from MECO. I will announce once there’s development.”

Earlier, De Lima said she did not want the flight schedule announced to prevent the investigation from getting undue media attention.

Self-defense

Meanwhile, the PCG released a three page incident report detailing how its men had to defend themselves from the Taiwanese boat’s hostile maneuver.

“One of the Taiwanese vessel maneuvered to ram our starboard bow. This unit executed reverse (gear) to avoid collision,” the report read.

In its initial report, the NBI said MCS-3001, a 35-meter patrol vessel jointly manned by PCG and BFAR personnel, set sail in the northern part of Batanes last May 8 to conduct patrol and surveillance.

The next day, the PCG-BFAR crew spotted several radio beacons with two floating buoy markers some 39 nautical miles east of Balintang Islands. They suspected that the buoys were markers for several Taiwanese fishing vessels. Soon after spotting the buoys, the PCG-BFAR vessel was able to find the location of the Taiwanese fishing boats.

“While on meeting situation, this unit then sounded warning through PA system and blow horn for the Taiwanese fishing vessel to stop for the conduct of fishing… (the PCG) fired warning shots to alert the fishing vessel until the fishing vessel stopped and one of the crew of the fishing vessel went outside,” the PCG said.

The PCG report said that when its vessel got near the fishing boat Guang Ta Hsin-28, the latter revved up its engine and made threatening moves.

The PCG crew fired another round of warning shots but the Taiwanese vessel engaged the PCG-BFAR vessel instead in a high-speed chase.

This prompted the MCS-3001 to open fire at Guang Ta Hsin-28 with the intention of disabling its engine but accidentally killed Taiwanese fisherman Hung Shih-cheng.

“To stop the fishing vessel, this unit announced to fire for effects the engine side section of said Taiwanese fishing vessel to immobilize her (boat) and stop her (boat) engine,” the report read.

While chasing the Guang Ta Hsin, the MCS-3001 crew spotted at least two unidentified boats.

With the presence of two unidentified boats in the vicinity, MCS-3001 disengaged from the chase.

Easing tension

Judging from church attendance, threats to Filipinos in Taiwan have lessened, a Taipei-based Filipino priest said yesterday.

Fr. Leonilo Mantilla, parish priest of St. Christopher’s Church in Taipei’s Zhongshan District, told Radio Veritas that church attendance is back to normal some two weeks after parishioners avoided going out of their homes for fear of reprisals from Taiwanese following the May 9 incident. Almost all of St. Christopher’s parishioners are Filipinos, according to Mantilla.

“At this moment, the situation is very cool and the tensions have eased,” Mantilla said, adding that Taiwanese local officials were helping ease the tension.

Should be resolved soon. A bit less incompetence and ass-covering from the Philippines and a bit less grandstanding from Ma and the whole affair could have been resolved with a lot less unpleasantness. Better late than never I suppose.
 
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