Philippines Vs Taiwan... Troubled Waters

Preux said:

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Should be resolved soon. A bit less incompetence and ass-covering from the Philippines and a bit less grandstanding from Ma and the whole affair could have been resolved with a lot less unpleasantness. Better late than never I suppose.

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That's too optimistic, in my opinion. We are seeing signs of Philippine trying to back down now, but there is utter lack of trust from Taiwan. There is suppose to be parallel investigations by both side now, Taiwan now insists on everything being agreed to in writing before allowing the investigation to proceed, based on Philippine's prior snub and reciprocity. According to Taiwanese, there are 11 issues submitted from each side. Taiwan agreed to 9 and rejected 2 -- and one of that (interviewing the crew) was rejected because Philippine would not allow their crew to be interviewed. The other issue is new autopsy, with Taiwan rejected on the ground of decency and family opposition, but Taiwan will release the autopsy video to Philippine investigators. Philippine, however, rejected 9 out of 11. Hence Taiwan put a hold on the permission on account of reciprocity.

When the investigation complete and the Filipino crew formally charged, I expect Taiwan to demand extradition, and Philippine is expected to refuse. Why? Because in 2006, after another Taiwanese was killed by Filipino coast guard, the persons charges disappeared in the middle of their trial. And there are other potential traps -- judge rule in favor of the Filipino, Presidential pardon and/or quiet release- after the current crisis is over. Given the climate of distrust, I don't expect Taiwan to give in easily.

I don't really know what the 'swaggering, overbearing, tin-plated, demagogue with delusion of godhood' (Noynoy Aquino) is thinking. But I don't see how he will come out of this with his popularity intact. But he knows Filipinos better then we outsiders possibly can. [That, by the way, is a paraphrase from Star Trek, the original series. Bad taste, to be sure, but just couldn't resist.]

Preux said:

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Should be resolved soon. Better late than never I suppose.

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It sounds like the Filipino investigative team is basically calling the Coast Guard incident report a lie...which I believe it is.

For example, this nuggett: "The PCG crew fired another round of warning shots but the Taiwanese vessel engaged the PCG-BFAR vessel instead in a high-speed chase."

They really want us to believe that the fishing boat engaged in a high speed chase of the Coast Guard Cutter? LOL!

No, they were not even supposed to fire warning shots. Instead, when the Taiwan boat would not stop, they shot up its bridge, killing the one man.

I am hoping that this report goes forward, that the responsibe people are tried and punished, and that payment is made, along with an apology. If the Filipino Coast Guard is found guilty by the Phillipine Government of criminal fault, then the government must apologize and pay for what their coast guard did.

Denial by Philippine Coast Guard


Aquino wants this to drag on -- probably in hope of getting someone to intervene. Maybe that's why they are so stingy in extending cooperation to Taiwanese investigators -- hence push the blame to Taiwan's side when Taiwan reciprocate in kind. But instead of cooling Taiwanese off, he succeeded in pissing them off more.

Seriously, the more the Philippines drag their feet on the investigation, the more it looks like they have something to hide.

Things like demanding their own autopsy and refusing access to the crew just smacks of bad faith and pettiness and such things have a way of coming back to bite people in the arse later as all it does is sabotage any behind-the-scenes work the Americans might be doing to try and defuse the stand-off.

If the Philippines keep up with such silly demands and keep acting the way they have been, it will only make Taiwan's position harden further and make it less likely for anyone (namely America) to step in and help them out as there is no way anyone could defend such thuggish behaviour and claim neutrality.

I think if the Philippines does not radically change their position, Taiwan should drop all demands for fisheries talks and just impose their claimed EEZ on the Philippines. Any Philippines fishing boats caught fishing in those waters would be boarded and charged with illegal fishing. Any Philippines government ships caught in those waters would be impounded and their crews deported. Then time would be on Taiwan's side, and the Philippines can drag this out for as long as they want.

Remember for I said that I couldn't figure out what's the gain for Philippine for provoking their neighbors unnecessarily? The following article is interesting because they hinted a motive -- while the actions may not benefit the Philippine nation, the politicos may come out of it quite well personally.

For instance, one report says that instead of going for the world-famous anti-submarine hunter, the Maestrale-class frigates, being offered by the Italian government on concessional terms, the DND has decided to outsource its needs to a private Korean contractor; and that it has also persuaded the Japanese government to provide the money with which to buy fast naval craft from a private Japanese supplier instead of allowing the Tokyo government itself to directly provide the units.

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Ah, the sweet stench of kickback and corruption! Provoked neighbors -> getting beaten up -> claim you are bullied -> increase defense budget -> kickbacks from arms dealers. Nice -- particularly so when Philippine presidency is limited to one 6 year term. Makes one's retirement comfy, don't you think?

nemo said:

Remember for I said that I couldn't figure out what's the gain for Philippine for provoking their neighbors unnecessarily? The following article is interesting because they hinted a motive -- while the actions may not benefit the Philippine nation, the politicos may come out of it quite well personally.

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Ah, the sweet stench of kickback and corruption! Provoked neighbors -> getting beaten up -> claim you are bullied -> increase defense budget -> kickbacks from arms dealers. Nice -- particularly so when Philippine presidency is limited to one 6 year term. Makes one's retirement comfy, don't you think?

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With leaders like that, who needs foreign enemies?

plawolf said:

With leaders like that, who needs foreign enemies?

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kickbacks are probably for others in his administration or people in the military. the Aquino family has vast fortunes with an extensive business empire. one Chinese media person from the phoenix tv station had actually visited the Aquino estate way before noynoy became president and he said although he's met many business tycoons none were as grandiose as the Aquino family.

Even assuming they could afford that, would the Philippines have the kind of infrastructure to support those long term? And again, if they decide to up the ante, everyone else would use that as an excuse to up the ante.

Benefits for the arms dealers all around certainly, but that only means realistically that the Philippines will become a pariah state.

mr.bean said:

kickbacks are probably for others in his administration or people in the military. the Aquino family has vast fortunes with an extensive business empire. one Chinese media person from the phoenix tv station had actually visited the Aquino estate way before noynoy became president and he said although he's met many business tycoons none were as grandiose as the Aquino family.

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You are not analyzing this correctly.

Aquino declared an *increase* of 1.8 billion USD of arms purchase. That about 0.75% of Philippine's GDP. The going rate is that he is entitled to 10% of that (the payoff for his underlings are accounted separately). If you scale that to US economy, that's equivalent of Obama getting 12 billion USD windfall. Rather nice, isn't it? Even $180 million USD isn't chump change anywhere in the world.

Player 0 said:

Even assuming they could afford that, would the Philippines have the kind of infrastructure to support those long term? And again, if they decide to up the ante, everyone else would use that as an excuse to up the ante.

Benefits for the arms dealers all around certainly, but that only means realistically that the Philippines will become a pariah state.

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What does that has to do with anything? Logistics is merely more opportunity for corruption and kickbacks. Better yet, it's a continuous revenue stream as long as those "weapons" remain in service. An arms race? even better -- more weapons, more kickback.

Philippine being a pariah state? No way that's going to happen. Just sacrifice more Philippine national interest to buy them off. Basing rights? check. Opening markets? check. Not contesting disputed territories? check. People will deal with you if you let them profit off you. The only question is how much Filipinos will allow you to spend before they throw you out. That's why national humiliation is necessary -- else people will not make the additional sacrifices. Hence the national masochism.