Olympics 2024 - discussion thread

[manqiangrexue]

Seem like Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong got a lot gold medals in fencing but China has none, not even bronze. Seemed like a gold mine for China to harvest in coming Olympics if we can invest a little bit.

Yes, very good.

China is only dominant from 80kg minus category. For 80kg plus category, the dominant one is Middle East like Iran, Qatar. And you cannot rely on weightlifting to earn gold while the US has athletics has nearly 50 events and swimming is 40 events. Out of 50 events in athletics this year, China men team earn ZERO medal while China women team has 3.

What is the point of what you are saying? We have more medals from women than men. We have more medals in light categories. So what?

Can you argue that China men team earn zero in athletics is because Chinese run differently than the US?

It's genetics. Men's 100m finals: 7 black guys and Su Bingtian. It's already amazing. It's not training. In the US where the training is given equally to those with talent, no Asian or white guys make these events. If you want a Chinese breakthrough in these events, maybe some blasian babies from our cooperations in Africa can make it happen. Other than that, there are genetic freaks like Su who can run 9.83 but he did it 1 time and freaks are too few to count on.

I remember someone saying ~5 of the weightlifting events were guaranteed gold and 1 was shaky

Anybody remember which one is the shaky one? Is it the current one? (Luo Shifang)

Edit: seems not after some searching. She is really strong

Edit 2: seems like Luo has quite a bit of competition from the taipei woman who won the last time, the ukrainian and the canadian, she will need to pull out her record breaking results

The next one, Shi Zhiyong men's 73kg is expected to lose to Indonesia. Too old and too injured and the Indonesian is a young guy on an upward trajectory. Hope Shi pulls off a hat trick and becomes triple Olympic champion. It will happen in a little over an hour.

And I never said guaranteed gold. This is sports so nothing is guaranteed. I said, gold is expected unless something goes terribly wrong.

Sounds like WADA had known about it for a decade but quietly sat on it since the USADA was still respecting WADA. Now that the respect is gone, WADA decides to pull out the big guns. A decade of evidence for corrupt behavior by USADA.

I have to say, I didn't know before this that the whole US swim team has "asthma" and gymnastics team has "ADHD." I thought Biles was a special case. It really makes these competitions mean less to me.

 

[CMP]

View attachment 133839

LOL it looks more like geopolitics in quantitative analysis.

US and China are trading places.

Australia straddles between US and China. So far so good - it gets the best of both worlds.

France is the host - what can I say?

GB is a traditional power - it is getting old but never dies.

SK has been fighting its way up against JP in all walks of life.

Italy is stronger than it looks.

Netherlands is always underrated. They are alway bad-ass.

Germany - what can I say - you have been disappointing me ---

The rest of the world please enjoy Paris while it is still in peace

11 of 27 US golds come from Harvard athletes. Students and alumni. In case China ever does turn to the dark side, it's pretty clear what to do.

 

[coolgod]

The next one, Shi Zhiyong men's 73kg is expected to lose to Indonesia. Too old and too injured and the Indonesian is a young guy on an upward trajectory. Hope Shi pulls off a hat trick and becomes triple Olympic champion. It will happen in a little over an hour.

Do you know why China choose Shi instead of putting Chinese weightlifters in other weightlifting categories? Was he really China's best shot at the sixth gold?

 

[manqiangrexue]

Do you know why China choose Shi instead of putting Chinese weightlifters in other weightlifting categories? Was he really China's best shot at the sixth gold?

3 men and 3 women is the quota, and they reduced the number of weight ranks to 5 for men, 5 for women. For women, we could have put way more; I think we could have won every category, but for men, these are our best 3 because we have nobody worth a shit in the unlimited class and the 89kg class is dominated by 1 sensational Bulgarian. So it's 61kg, 73kg, 89kg(No), 102kg, Unlimited(No).

And I don't blame the IOC or Western collusion to reduce Chinese sports. The International Weightliftied Federation is too horrible; they hid over 1,000 positive tests from Eastern Europeans and gave the IOC the finger when asked to clean up. It's a wonder that weightlifting didn't get expelled.

 

[zbb]

I have to say, I didn't know before this that the whole US swim team has "asthma" and gymnastics team has "ADHD." I thought Biles was a special case. It really makes these competitions mean less to me.

Not everyone on the US swim team has asthma. For example, Katy Ledecky "suffers" from POTS instead.

 

[J20 RTS]

* Opening weight in the snatch of the contestants.

 

[manqiangrexue]

Ok, Shi got an 8 kg advantage in the snatch.

No. It hasn't started yet LOL. That's his declared opener. Everything can change but Shi is expected to win the snatch and Rizki the clean and jerk. Shi will be aggressive with his snatch because he needs a huge lead on Rizki to hold him off on the clean and jerk. Rizki will be conservative with his opening snatch because the last thing he needs is to bomb. He will rely on a huge clean and jerk to win.

 

[jli88]

Yes, very good.

I think HongKong team should be integrated with normal Chinese team. They are very complimentary too. HK does good in Fencing, Equestrian, and some Swimming events (frankly only Siobhan Haughey), and China would need those medals. It would also help in nation building as the feeling of cheering for the same team and flag is just one hell of a thing to build camaraderie.

Beyond that, I think Beijing/London level effort needs to be made into some sports.

Australia/Europeans do so well at Olympics because their olympic programs are heavily state backed. US actually does poorly compared to those countries for its size, because its program isn't as heavily state sponsored.

China should aim at dominating a few more high medal events. I would say go for Wrestling (18 events), Canoeing (16 events), Cycling (22 events). All of these are sports that are very niche, and are played primarily for the Olympics. (Except for some events in all three that have wider popularity.)

Beyond that keep it at Swimming.

And regain traditional strengths in Gymanstics and Badminton. Badminton performance has specially gone downhill after London. There were just too many scandals that shook the team, some extremely talented youngsters never played any Olympics. Frankly, there was a monumental screwup in Badminton after London.

 

[sndef888]

OMG

Indonesian failed his third snatch and only has 155kg

Shi Zhiyong definitely has a chance if he gets a sizeable lead in snatch

Edit: Shi Zhiyong now has 165kg in snatch. However his clean and jerk is worse than the Indonesian by around 10kg as well, so it will be very very close

 

[manqiangrexue]

OMG

Indonesian failed his third snatch and only has 155kg

Shi Zhiyong definitely has a chance if he gets a sizeable lead in snatch

Very good. We are 10kg ahead with 165, which means he must beat us by 11kg in the clean and jerk. Unfortunately, that is still quite possible because at the last comp, Shi was only good for 191 and Rizki did 201 but this means she has a real good fighting chance. If Shi made 168, then I would say Rizki's chances are very low but he missed so there is still a fight. Before this match, we thought Rizki would be within ~3-4kg of Shi's snatch which would put Rizki in a dominant position entering the clean and jerk. That's why he was the favorite. If Shi has recovered back into the mid-190's, then I'd say Rizki's fairly toast.

In addition, the way that Rizki missed his 162 snatch makes me think his strength might not be up to par today. It wasn't a technical fault of too far in front or back, or rising too early before the bar is stabilized, which are typically what happens when you have jitters. He didn't pull it high enough by a significant amount. So if that is correct, then his clean and jerk may also not be as big as last time. Let's hope so. I'm carefully optimistic about Shi's chances.