i wont bet on it, they are allies, current situation is tech decoupling between US & China. Samsung etc wont just spend billions just to created a different supply line catering to Huawei/SMIC only, even if they do, not gurantee their own supply chain from Japan/EU will do the same.
News on China's scientific and technological development.
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solarz
Brigadier
I think you guys are missing the bigger picture.
In any business, you worry more about the lack of customers than the lack of suppliers. You can always stock up on supplies, you can't stock up on customers!
Huawei is in no danger of failing as a company. Even if they run out of high-end chips, they can still run a profitable business making low-end phones catering to more than a billion potential customers. All they need to do is to wait for Chinese chip manufacturing to catch up. At worst, they'll lose some international market share for a few years, but once they get the supplies, and once their own OS ecosystem matures, they can bounce back real fast.
On the other hand, American chipmakers do not have such a rosy outlook. They may be getting a bounty now as Huawei stocks up, but after that their sales are going to tank. What happens to businesses who lose big customers? Lay offs and cut backs. What happens to engineers who get laid off? They're going to look for work elsewhere, and guess which market would be hiring exactly that type of talent, right at about that time?
In the history of humanity, technology inevitably spreads to everyone. What do you think is the vehicle of that spread? People! Is the US going to prevent American engineers from immigrating to China for good jobs?
In any business, you worry more about the lack of customers than the lack of suppliers. You can always stock up on supplies, you can't stock up on customers!
Huawei is in no danger of failing as a company. Even if they run out of high-end chips, they can still run a profitable business making low-end phones catering to more than a billion potential customers. All they need to do is to wait for Chinese chip manufacturing to catch up. At worst, they'll lose some international market share for a few years, but once they get the supplies, and once their own OS ecosystem matures, they can bounce back real fast.
On the other hand, American chipmakers do not have such a rosy outlook. They may be getting a bounty now as Huawei stocks up, but after that their sales are going to tank. What happens to businesses who lose big customers? Lay offs and cut backs. What happens to engineers who get laid off? They're going to look for work elsewhere, and guess which market would be hiring exactly that type of talent, right at about that time?
In the history of humanity, technology inevitably spreads to everyone. What do you think is the vehicle of that spread? People! Is the US going to prevent American engineers from immigrating to China for good jobs?
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Allies are flitting and only when interests align. Wanna lose allies real fast? F up their businesses over your own problems and bully them into losing valuable connections. Everybody's permanent ally is money and self-interest. The economic value of being Huawei's sole supplier of chips cannot be overstated and any company that can grasp it would jump at it. But would they succeed? If I were the head of Samsung, the biggest factor that would be holding me back from going all in to developing a line of chips for Huawei free of US sanctions is that I may not even be able to supply them for long enough to recover my research investment before Huawei's own chips or domestic Chinese chips take over.
Exactly!
What should eventually happen, everyone will turn tail, and start selling to China en mass.
Right now, everyone is making the right noises, eagerly kissing Trump's feet, but that is all for show.
America before the current administration would support any friend and oppose any foe, or at least put ona facade that it does so. With Trump it is completely different. He not only expect his allies to cater to his whims but also forces them to increase their defense spendings/raise tariffs on them because they are taking advantage of America, apparently. You can only get away with doing this for so long before people get tired of it.
and did Samsung/TSMC still selling chips to huawei? nope. its not just economy, but geopolitical they are US ally, Aussies is best example, they have so much economy tie to china, but politically/geostrategic they are in US camp. Unless, samsung/TSMC or the like can gain Alot, otherwise they wont spend Billions to open up a new supply chain devoid of US products(if thats even possible in short term). Unless SK/Japan fully prepare to be on China side, they wont jeopardize their relation with US. Also Trump wont be potus either next year or at most 4 years. The next potus very likely support its allies rather than piss them off.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Even SMIC doesn't sell to Huawei; is that geopolitical too? TSMC held on as long as possible and loaded Huawei with chips while the US ban was still at the 10% threshold. These companies can't operate without US equipment, otherwise they don't turn down money. And it's not SK/Japan making a sale; it's a company that is free to do business unless it is stopped, like now.
And yeah, like I said, if Samsung can gain a lot, like become a long term sole supplier of Huawei and the Chinese market eating up Qualcomm's share, they would want to make that investment. But right now, with China's drive for chip self-sufficiency, that doesn't look like it's on offer to a foreign company. The best they can get is massive short-term sales and whether that's worth it or even within a doable time-frame is another story.
