News on China's scientific and technological development.

latenlazy

Brigadier
I think you guys are missing the bigger picture.

In any business, you worry more about the lack of customers than the lack of suppliers. You can always stock up on supplies, you can't stock up on customers!

Huawei is in no danger of failing as a company. Even if they run out of high-end chips, they can still run a profitable business making low-end phones catering to more than a billion potential customers. All they need to do is to wait for Chinese chip manufacturing to catch up. At worst, they'll lose some international market share for a few years, but once they get the supplies, and once their own OS ecosystem matures, they can bounce back real fast.

On the other hand, American chipmakers do not have such a rosy outlook. They may be getting a bounty now as Huawei stocks up, but after that their sales are going to tank. What happens to businesses who lose big customers? Lay offs and cut backs. What happens to engineers who get laid off? They're going to look for work elsewhere, and guess which market would be hiring exactly that type of talent, right at about that time?

In the history of humanity, technology inevitably spreads to everyone. What do you think is the vehicle of that spread? People! Is the US going to prevent American engineers from immigrating to China for good jobs?

Thank you! Couldn’t have laid this out better.
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
and did Samsung/TSMC still selling chips to huawei? nope. its not just economy, but geopolitical they are US ally, Aussies is best example, they have so much economy tie to china, but politically/geostrategic they are in US camp. Unless, samsung/TSMC or the like can gain Alot, otherwise they wont spend Billions to open up a new supply chain devoid of US products(if thats even possible in short term). Unless SK/Japan fully prepare to be on China side, they wont jeopardize their relation with US. Also Trump wont be potus either next year or at most 4 years. The next potus very likely support its allies rather than piss them off.
I find this to be wishful thinking to the extreme.

You make it sound like the master lord relationship with their serfs is in effect.

The feudal age is long gone!
 

machupicu

Junior Member
Registered Member
Are Batteries the Trade War China’s Already Won?
The U.S. risks the long-term viability of its auto industry and more.

Come next summer, at a lithium-ion battery factory in Endicott, N.Y., thousands of rechargeable cells should start rolling off a production line. Run by Imperium3 New York LLC, a consortium of small companies, it will be the only new production facility of its type to open in 2021 in the U.S., delivering batteries to clients in defense, transportation, and other industries.

With an initial annual output of cells equal to 1 gigawatt-hour—enough to power about 19,000 electric vehicles at the current average pack size—the capacity at Endicott is a fraction of what global rivals will produce. China and
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will respectively add about 40 and 19 times that volume next year, BlooombergNEF estimates.

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duskseeker

Junior Member
Registered Member
I find this to be wishful thinking to the extreme.

You make it sound like the master lord relationship with their serfs is in effect.

The feudal age is long gone!
As much as I would like to share your optimism, a person can be bribed and threatened and they might as well sell out their country. Just look at Japan's airline industry in the 60s where Boeing bribed and threatened their way for Japan not to make their own Aircraft or SE asia where Belle and Boeing forced small aircraft manufacturers to stop local industries through sanctions and bribes.
 

horse

Colonel
Registered Member
As much as I would like to share your optimism, a person can be bribed and threatened and they might as well sell out their country. Just look at Japan's airline industry in the 60s where Boeing bribed and threatened their way for Japan not to make their own Aircraft or SE asia where Belle and Boeing forced small aircraft manufacturers to stop local industries through sanctions and bribes.
I believe I am peddling an honest assessment.

The semiconductor industry is spread over a multitude of companies over several countries; companies that have China as their biggest market, and countries that has China as it biggest trading partner.

Once China develops similar products, those foreign hi tech firms, American companies included, can kiss their market goodbye.

That is what essentially Trump and his right wingers have asked or coerced their friends to do. Sit around and wait until your market share in China is reduced to zero, and then take on Chinese competition.

At this point, some of those foreign companies might have to kiss themselves goodbye.

When the dam breaks, I would run for my life.

If someone breaks ranks, it will be a flood.

That is one angle of attack, subversion of this artificial cartel held together by coercion against the best interests of those coerced.

The other angle of attack, is just develop the stuff internally inside China. They already at 14nm. It is only a matter of time to get better and better at it.

The best part is, does not matter how long it takes.

We are just mostly talking chips for the phones really. The chips for the 5G boxes, all there at 14nm, and a stockpile at 7nm.

:)
 

gadgetcool5

Senior Member
Registered Member
This is a defeatist mentality that assumes China is completely helpless and that capitulation will make those that want to see China weak be kinder to China. It is a thoroughly flawed mindset to have.

China is not helpless. It is the opposite of helpless. It can become the world's most powerful nation if it wants to.

But it will go into stagnation and decline if it chooses to start fights with everyone.

The US has attacked Huawei. Next, Japanese, South Korean companies will attack Huawei. Next, Chinese companies like SMIC will abandon Huawei and Xiaomi and Oppow ill take their customers. Next, Chinese consumers will abandon Huawei. No, they won't get a billion customers like some people are saying here, because even Chinese customers don't want inferior phones without American chips. Next, Huawei's own employees will abandon Huawei.

Huawei is finished.

China tech is finished. The only thing that can save it now is if Xi Jinping chooses to stop getting into fights with everyone and seeks better relations with other countries.
 

machupicu

Junior Member
Registered Member
China is not helpless. It is the opposite of helpless. It can become the world's most powerful nation if it wants to.

But it will go into stagnation and decline if it chooses to start fights with everyone.

The US has attacked Huawei. Next, Japanese, South Korean companies will attack Huawei. Next, Chinese companies like SMIC will abandon Huawei and Xiaomi and Oppow ill take their customers. Next, Chinese consumers will abandon Huawei. No, they won't get a billion customers like some people are saying here, because even Chinese customers don't want inferior phones without American chips. Next, Huawei's own employees will abandon Huawei.

Huawei is finished.

China tech is finished. The only thing that can save it now is if Xi Jinping chooses to stop getting into fights with everyone and seeks better relations with other countries.
You keep saying Huawei is finished, how and where? About 60% of its sales are derived from domestic mkt inside china. Huawei has many business units and all are thriving. In a couple of yrs they will produce 7nm chips. Recently it went into ev biz,too..
 

machupicu

Junior Member
Registered Member
China tech is finished. The only thing that can save it now is if Xi Jinping chooses to stop getting into fights with everyone and seeks better relations with other countries.
Eh who started the fight? It was trump with bogus reason to want to bring down ZTE, then trade war, then Huawei..all initiated by trump, did u just arrive from planet Mars?
 

solarz

Brigadier
China is not helpless. It is the opposite of helpless. It can become the world's most powerful nation if it wants to.

But it will go into stagnation and decline if it chooses to start fights with everyone.

The US has attacked Huawei. Next, Japanese, South Korean companies will attack Huawei. Next, Chinese companies like SMIC will abandon Huawei and Xiaomi and Oppow ill take their customers. Next, Chinese consumers will abandon Huawei. No, they won't get a billion customers like some people are saying here, because even Chinese customers don't want inferior phones without American chips. Next, Huawei's own employees will abandon Huawei.

Huawei is finished.

China tech is finished. The only thing that can save it now is if Xi Jinping chooses to stop getting into fights with everyone and seeks better relations with other countries.

Your medications are finished.
 

duskseeker

Junior Member
Registered Member
China is not helpless. It is the opposite of helpless. It can become the world's most powerful nation if it wants to.

But it will go into stagnation and decline if it chooses to start fights with everyone.

The US has attacked Huawei. Next, Japanese, South Korean companies will attack Huawei. Next, Chinese companies like SMIC will abandon Huawei and Xiaomi and Oppow ill take their customers. Next, Chinese consumers will abandon Huawei. No, they won't get a billion customers like some people are saying here, because even Chinese customers don't want inferior phones without American chips. Next, Huawei's own employees will abandon Huawei.

Huawei is finished.

China tech is finished. The only thing that can save it now is if Xi Jinping chooses to stop getting into fights with everyone and seeks better relations with other countries.

lols the Chinese are not ASEAN or EU. everyone in those countries that capitulated got castrated.
 
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