News on China's scientific and technological development.
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No amount of money/time could've been effective as Trump in making Chinese loyal to China and the party. CCP probably viewed it as a small price to pay.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
I have always thought of complete over-haul from the ground-up. Once Trump targeted Huawei, I already knew it meant everything. What would make anyone think Trump wouldn't go after any other Chinese company? The reason why he's not decoupling completely because it'll hurt the US and allies. Just like he's not going after the rest of China's exports because those are US corporations outsourcing to China. Trump going after one by one means he's hoping US companies will be forced to adjust to do the least amount of damage to themselves meanwhile hoping this will pressure China into surrendering. Like I've said before, China exists therefore it needs to be conquered. They don't have absolute power if they don't control everything. So don't think they can just leave China alone. This is all about pressuring China into surrendering. China is already the second most powerful country in the world. China has beaten every other Western country and allies except for one and the US doesn't feel secure. China is already an example of how their way isn't the only way. This is the US's fall of the Roman Empire moment. Their arrogance is what's going to destroy them and they'll blame everyone else and never figuring it out. There will be slow downs for China while adjusting. And the notorious suspects will try to spin anything bad as China losing and failing.
Key question:
Is this TikTok Global really TikTok US, or TikTok AngloSaxon - UK, or entire TikTok, i.e. all TikTok assets over the world including Europe, Asia, India, Middle East, etc.?
If this is the first or even the second, it's negotiable, but if it's the last one, it just doesn't make sense for ByteDance.
Assuming it's not the last one, then:
- Data - Oracle manages the data and provides the cloud service, this is required to satisfy the US national security requirements.
- Ownership - Including the original American investors in ByteDance, plus the new investors including Oracle and WalMart, it's possible the US ownership will exceed 50%.
- Management - Management team will be US-based, US CEO, and majority US nationals. The board will reflect the ownership structure, the security committee will led and consist of US nationals.
It's a workable model and solution, pending on the details to be noegotiated.
This is robbery, friend. This creates bad precedent for China in the future.
This TikTok story used to be real interesting when there was a Fascist angle to it, with the state forcing a sale.
Now it is just a joint venture like we see in China.
The twist is, that this is a joint venture after the fact.
What seems rather unusual too, is that the people involved in the joint venture, it is like they are all friends.
That is the moral of the story. In the end, there is not much geopolitical points about TikTok in America. This is all about rich corporations getting richer. The rich people getting more of the 1%.
The 1% winning makes Trump happy.
You know what kind of bothers me about this TikTok episode.
It is who is involved here.
First of all, we must remember what is TikTok, it is a dance app, where anyone could bust a move.
Now, there is some sort of deal brewing, exclusively for the rich people.
So we have the peasants dancing so that the rich can make money.
The poor are only to amuse the rich and allow the 1% to be more 1%.
I dunno know. Seems like the natural order of things.
Hehe.
It is who is involved here.
First of all, we must remember what is TikTok, it is a dance app, where anyone could bust a move.
Now, there is some sort of deal brewing, exclusively for the rich people.
So we have the peasants dancing so that the rich can make money.
The poor are only to amuse the rich and allow the 1% to be more 1%.
I dunno know. Seems like the natural order of things.
Hehe.
Well I told you folks. It was to be expected that the US would use its de facto monopoly on leading edge lithography to hurt China's semiconductor business. I told you guys that focusing on high end developments like AI software and chips was misguided. The Chinese were building a house on sand. But if anything I think that Trump's sanctions were poorly timed. He just took too long to do it, and singled-highhandedly forced the sanctions. So they might backfire. Besides lithography the US also has a de facto monopoly on EDA design software tools. I think China needs to do two things. They need to develop their own high quality light sources both for DUV and EUV and break Cymer's monopoly on EUV light sources. Then they need to have enough production so SMEE can use those light sources and have enough to export to companies like the Japanese lithography manufacturers so they can break ASML's monopoly on EUV lithography tools.
The Chinese government also needs to sponsor alternative EDA design tools and make those a worldwide standard. Give them away even.
This is necessary to break the US monopoly on EDA tools.
It won't be easy to develop an alternative fully Chinese semiconductor industry. There are just too many things from machine tools to materials to software and those change all the time. So China must attack the US's main areas of expertise and make it so US can't blackmail the industry anymore. The US does not dominate the whole semiconductor market. In fact they are much weaker than a lot of people realize.
ASML is an European company and if it wasn't for US domination of the light sources I doubt they could be coerced as easily. Their Japanese competitors are also stuck on DUV and desperate for customers so they are vulnerable. With regards to EDA software tools, they are so expensive, that if someone made even inferior but usable tools for free which could be used at SMIC their market would crumble.
Still I have not seen any moves on the Chinese government pointing to the right end. There were programs for 28nm tools, sure, but if the light source is so crappy you can't output the same amount of wafers per minute you are at a competitive disadvantage.
China should just do like Russia and do counter-sanctions. Either ban or raise tariffs on US semiconductor related company products. Apple should be one of those companies which should have tariffs. China can just claim to the WTO court that the US is unlawfully sanctioning Huawei and enact tariffs against companies like Apple and Cisco to counter the expected losses by Huawei.
China should also target the US casinos in Macao, China and shut them down. Casinos are used for money-laundering and illegally take capital out of China so this would be trivial to do and cause massive damages to those people.
I expect the next attack to come from ARM licensing. They already wanted to put down the ARM China leader against the wishes of the majority shareholders, and now NVIDIA, a US company, has purchased ARM. Do not expect good news from there. Chinese companies should switch from ARM to some other architecture, like RISC-V. NVIDIA's purchase of ARM is also an opportunity however.
Chinese investors should expect NVIDIA to layoff a lot of ARM's reseachers over the next two years as there is major overlap between NVIDIA's staff and ARM's. I expect NVIDIA to knife the Norway ARM branch which designs the Mali GPUs in the short term and likely they will make reductions to the CPU branches in either France, the UK, or both. The Chinese should take advantage of this by opening offices at those locations and recruiting their staff. China should have both an ISA license and design their own ARM chips and design their own RISC-V chips to replace ARM in all the market segments where the ISA doesn't matter like routers and IoT or automotive.
The Chinese government also needs to sponsor alternative EDA design tools and make those a worldwide standard. Give them away even.
This is necessary to break the US monopoly on EDA tools.
It won't be easy to develop an alternative fully Chinese semiconductor industry. There are just too many things from machine tools to materials to software and those change all the time. So China must attack the US's main areas of expertise and make it so US can't blackmail the industry anymore. The US does not dominate the whole semiconductor market. In fact they are much weaker than a lot of people realize.
ASML is an European company and if it wasn't for US domination of the light sources I doubt they could be coerced as easily. Their Japanese competitors are also stuck on DUV and desperate for customers so they are vulnerable. With regards to EDA software tools, they are so expensive, that if someone made even inferior but usable tools for free which could be used at SMIC their market would crumble.
Still I have not seen any moves on the Chinese government pointing to the right end. There were programs for 28nm tools, sure, but if the light source is so crappy you can't output the same amount of wafers per minute you are at a competitive disadvantage.
China should just do like Russia and do counter-sanctions. Either ban or raise tariffs on US semiconductor related company products. Apple should be one of those companies which should have tariffs. China can just claim to the WTO court that the US is unlawfully sanctioning Huawei and enact tariffs against companies like Apple and Cisco to counter the expected losses by Huawei.
China should also target the US casinos in Macao, China and shut them down. Casinos are used for money-laundering and illegally take capital out of China so this would be trivial to do and cause massive damages to those people.
I expect the next attack to come from ARM licensing. They already wanted to put down the ARM China leader against the wishes of the majority shareholders, and now NVIDIA, a US company, has purchased ARM. Do not expect good news from there. Chinese companies should switch from ARM to some other architecture, like RISC-V. NVIDIA's purchase of ARM is also an opportunity however.
Chinese investors should expect NVIDIA to layoff a lot of ARM's reseachers over the next two years as there is major overlap between NVIDIA's staff and ARM's. I expect NVIDIA to knife the Norway ARM branch which designs the Mali GPUs in the short term and likely they will make reductions to the CPU branches in either France, the UK, or both. The Chinese should take advantage of this by opening offices at those locations and recruiting their staff. China should have both an ISA license and design their own ARM chips and design their own RISC-V chips to replace ARM in all the market segments where the ISA doesn't matter like routers and IoT or automotive.
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I draw very different conclusions.
1.Where did all the Chinese with better managerial and entrepreneurial skills vanish to? The answer is China (or Taiwan, or Hong Kong, or Singapore or Southeast Asia)! The fact that you have so many Indian executives making money for American or British companies is a very sad reflection on how backward/lacking of opportunites India is today. There is even a term for this phenomenon: the "Sea-Turtle" effect.
The Indians today are very much like the more ambitious Chinese in the 19th Century. Back then, these Chinese went to Southeast Asia and 200 years later, ethnic Chinese dominate over 50% of all Southeast Asian economies with Indonesia being the most skewed (< 5% population controlling 75% of the economy). If Southeast Asia is a laboratory to test whether Chinese or Indians are better at building relationships then clearly we know who is the overwhelming winner.
Putin is a masterful politician (Russia's GDP is less than South Korea). Mao was a great strategist. Sadly, the only chips they can play with are Russian and Chinese lives. How many Russians died in other countries' wars? How many Chinese died in Korea? I am sure both rather be in Xi's position of real strength. Chihuahuas bark all the time. Big dogs don't have to. Soviet Union collapsed because it couldn't sustain its military. U.S. won WW2 and the Cold War not due to its great generalship but due to its immense industrial might. Wealth does equal Power. Deng understood where real power lies and economy was the means. It is the weak that must make deals. Between countries, there is only national self-interest. There is nothing cultural or ideological. Lasting alliances are built upon mutually aligned objectives. Do I care if my banker is vegetarian? He is a good banker if he lends me the money. Examples: China/Pakistan, U.S./Saudi Arabia, North Korea/Iran, etc. Using race or religion as common thread between two states is convenient way to sell it to the common people, nothing more.
Today, Russia, Iran, and North Korea all make waves just like Mao in the 1950's but they are all mere nuisances to the U.S. Nobody cares what Modi or Abe (until this week) thinks. Only China is deemed as an existential threat. Rightfully so. Nobody would be worried about a competitor if you think your competition is going down the wrong path. On the other hand, you would be extremely concerned if you believe your competition is better and will eat your lunch and dinner and all the snacks in between. Just look at the Maximum Pressure tactic U.S. is trying to exert on China. Talk is cheap. The only real conclusion one can draw is that China is doing everything right and the U.S. is tucking its tail and try to bark as loudly as it can. With a GDP (PPP) 27% greater than the U.S. last year, it is really silly to think China can lie low without anyone noticing. Deng would be thrilled to know his strategy worked and must be discarded.
Wealth = Influence = First among equals.