News on China's scientific and technological development.

emblem21

Major
Registered Member
Under Trump, with the likes of Mike Pompeo and Peter Navarro, the United States doing as I have stated is a probability. Yes. Those types of persons want a conflict with China. They believe that doing as such will prevent or at least greatly slowdown China's ascent to global economic preeminence.
Only that there actions could very well end up sinking the USA in return, just like with the trade war, and with the HK riots funded by them, and now with this pandemic. If may slow down China's ascent only to help China address there flaws on where they can improve but does any thing they do help to address the factors that the USA is obviously not correcting or even in reality making things worse. They are not slowing down China, they are actually helping to improve there global economic preeminence via pushing China to improve themselves hence why there growth compared to the whole world being a good indication that the USA is going to sink itself by the end of the year.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
You guys should keep in mind that although Trump does follow up on a lot of his threats (with Huawei and Tiktok), a lot of his threats are hot air and a part of the maximum pressure strategy. For every Huawei chip ban there is also a "prevent CCP members from entering the U.S." act or something equally ridiculous.
 

Skywatcher

Captain
(cont)

Investor Takeaway
According to
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, SMIC’s other co-CEO:

The key to his comments was the last sentence. Chart 2 sums up the huge lead foreign equipment have over native Chinese companies. In 2019, Chinese suppliers sold just $200 million worth of equipment compared to imported equipment from foreign suppliers valued at $13.3 billion.

View attachment 63136
Chart 2

Why? Although Chinese-made equipment has the ability to be used in the fabrication of state-of-the-art 5nm chips, there are numerous other factors that semiconductor manufacturers use to evaluate a supplier. We don't know about
  • Reliability
  • Uptime
  • Price/performance ratio
  • Mean time between failures (MTBF)
  • Equipment support
  • Limited breadth of equipment offerings within a sector
Semiconductor manufacturers typically take 9-12 months to evaluate a piece of equipment and make decisions on a "best-of-breed basis." However, I have learned from my sources that the Chinese government is demanding that a portion of equipment used in a fab must be Chinese made.
This begs the question. If Chinese made equipment is sitting side-by-side to a foreign-made system, how difficult would it be for Chinese equipment engineers to keep their eyes and ears open to discover features of the foreign equipment that could be implemented into their own. In other words, IP theft.

On the other side of the coin, if foreign equipment companies were blocked from shipping more equipment, would it open the flood gates for more IP theft because foreign engineers may not be permitted by the Commerce Department to monitor equipment? For example, in October of 2018, Commerce effectively shut down Chinese semiconductor firm Fujian Jinhua—cutting it off from U.S. suppliers, including suppliers of semiconductor-making machines. The firm had stolen U.S. memory chip maker Micron’s (NASDAQ:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
) technology, which I wrote about in a Nov. 6, 2018 Seeking Alpha article entitled “
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
.”
It was my understanding that foreign equipment engineers picked up their tools and exited the building. What happened to that equipment? Were they reverse engineered in another example of IP theft?
Applied Materials will be most impacted by export restrictions of all foreign suppliers for several reasons:

  • The company supplies more types of equipment to China and has a larger installed base of equipment than any foreign peer. If we look at Table 1, AMAT makes every type of equipment except for lithography and resist processing.
  • AMAT makes more variations of equipment within a sector than peers. For example, in the CVD sector, AMAT offers 12 different types of equipment compared to just 5 for LRCX and 4 for TEL. In the PVD (sputtering) sector, AMAT has 16 different variations of equipment while China's NAURA has just 6.
  • Commerce restrictions will halt AMAT's acquisition of Hitachi Kokusai Electric. Remember that the Chinese regulators still need to approve the acquisition and so far they have refused. You can read more about this in my May 27, 2020 Seeking Alpha article entitled "
    Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
    ."
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Interesting. For really node critical items, China is already competitive (AMEC, etching) or not far behind (Naura, 14/16nm deposition), and IIRC, China has some decent ion implantation equipment. And all on $200 million of FY19 annual revenue.
 

siegecrossbow

General
Staff member
Super Moderator
(cont)

Investor Takeaway
According to
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, SMIC’s other co-CEO:

The key to his comments was the last sentence. Chart 2 sums up the huge lead foreign equipment have over native Chinese companies. In 2019, Chinese suppliers sold just $200 million worth of equipment compared to imported equipment from foreign suppliers valued at $13.3 billion.

View attachment 63136
Chart 2

Why? Although Chinese-made equipment has the ability to be used in the fabrication of state-of-the-art 5nm chips, there are numerous other factors that semiconductor manufacturers use to evaluate a supplier. We don't know about
  • Reliability
  • Uptime
  • Price/performance ratio
  • Mean time between failures (MTBF)
  • Equipment support
  • Limited breadth of equipment offerings within a sector
Semiconductor manufacturers typically take 9-12 months to evaluate a piece of equipment and make decisions on a "best-of-breed basis." However, I have learned from my sources that the Chinese government is demanding that a portion of equipment used in a fab must be Chinese made.
This begs the question. If Chinese made equipment is sitting side-by-side to a foreign-made system, how difficult would it be for Chinese equipment engineers to keep their eyes and ears open to discover features of the foreign equipment that could be implemented into their own. In other words, IP theft.

On the other side of the coin, if foreign equipment companies were blocked from shipping more equipment, would it open the flood gates for more IP theft because foreign engineers may not be permitted by the Commerce Department to monitor equipment? For example, in October of 2018, Commerce effectively shut down Chinese semiconductor firm Fujian Jinhua—cutting it off from U.S. suppliers, including suppliers of semiconductor-making machines. The firm had stolen U.S. memory chip maker Micron’s (NASDAQ:
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
) technology, which I wrote about in a Nov. 6, 2018 Seeking Alpha article entitled “
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
.”
It was my understanding that foreign equipment engineers picked up their tools and exited the building. What happened to that equipment? Were they reverse engineered in another example of IP theft?
Applied Materials will be most impacted by export restrictions of all foreign suppliers for several reasons:

  • The company supplies more types of equipment to China and has a larger installed base of equipment than any foreign peer. If we look at Table 1, AMAT makes every type of equipment except for lithography and resist processing.
  • AMAT makes more variations of equipment within a sector than peers. For example, in the CVD sector, AMAT offers 12 different types of equipment compared to just 5 for LRCX and 4 for TEL. In the PVD (sputtering) sector, AMAT has 16 different variations of equipment while China's NAURA has just 6.
  • Commerce restrictions will halt AMAT's acquisition of Hitachi Kokusai Electric. Remember that the Chinese regulators still need to approve the acquisition and so far they have refused. You can read more about this in my May 27, 2020 Seeking Alpha article entitled "
    Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
    ."
Disclosure: I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

If China can't acquire some tech due to a ban then they can't blame it for IP theft. It isn't as if China isn't willing to pay for them.
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Interesting. For really node critical items, China is already competitive (AMEC, etching) or not far behind (Naura, 14/16nm deposition), and IIRC, China has some decent ion implantation equipment. And all on $200 million of FY19 annual revenue.
Hi Skywatcher,

Can China pull this off, I meant can they able to produce by their own all the tech necessary to produce a 7nm chip within 2 years, cause after that they will be left behind tech wise if TSMC is able to introduce their 2nm tech.
 

Hendrik_2000

Lieutenant General
Forget about silicone base chip newer chips is coming and China will invest large amount of money in third gen chip
Third-generation semiconductors are mainly chipsets made of materials such as silicon carbide and gallium nitride. They can operate at high frequency and in higher power and temperature environments, and are widely used in fifth-generation radio frequency chips, military-grade radars and electric vehicles.
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China plans huge investment in next-generation chips: Report
Facing pressure from the US, China wants to develop its own chip-making technology, sources tell Bloomberg.
Bloomberg
3 Sept 2020

Chinese firms such as Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp, whose chips are seen here, Will Semiconductor Ltd and National Silicon Industry Group Co could benefit from the government's new push [File; Qilai Shen/Bloomberg]

Chinese firms such as Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp, whose chips are seen here, Will Semiconductor Ltd and National Silicon Industry Group Co could benefit from the government's new push [File; Qilai Shen/Bloomberg]
China is planning a sweeping set of new government policies to develop its domestic semiconductor industry and counter Trump administration restrictions, conferring the same kind of priority on the effort it accorded to building its atomic capability, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

Beijing is preparing broad support for so-called third-generation semiconductors for the five years through 2025, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing government deliberations. A suite of measures to bolster research, education and financing for the industry has been added to a draft of the country's 14th five-year plan, which will be presented to the country's top leaders in October, the people said.

China's top leaders will gather next month to lay out their economic strategy for the next half decade, including efforts to ramp up domestic consumption and make critical technology at home. President Xi Jinping has pledged an estimated $1.4 trillion through 2025 for technologies ranging from wireless networks to artificial intelligence. Semiconductors are fundamental to virtually every component of China's technology ambitions -- and an increasingly aggressive Trump administration threatens to cut off their supply from abroad.

"The Chinese leadership realizes that semiconductors underpin all advanced technologies, and that it can no longer dependably rely on American supplies," said Dan Wang, technology analyst at research firm Gavekal Dragonomics. "In the face of stricter U.S. restrictions on chip access, China's response can only be to keep pushing its own industry to develop."

Shares in several major Chinese chipmakers gained. Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics Group Co. finished 4.3% higher in Hong Kong. On mainland bourses, Will Semiconductor Ltd. -- the second most valuable listed Chinese chip firm -- rose almost 10%. Xiamen Changelight Co. closed 14% up while Focus Lightings Tech Co. jumped 5.6%.
 

eprash

Junior Member
Registered Member
Forget about silicone base chip newer chips is coming and China will invest large amount of money in third gen chip
Third-generation semiconductors are mainly chipsets made of materials such as silicon carbide and gallium nitride. They can operate at high frequency and in higher power and temperature environments, and are widely used in fifth-generation radio frequency chips, military-grade radars and electric vehicles.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

China plans huge investment in next-generation chips: Report
Facing pressure from the US, China wants to develop its own chip-making technology, sources tell Bloomberg.
Bloomberg
3 Sept 2020

Chinese firms such as Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp, whose chips are seen here, Will Semiconductor Ltd and National Silicon Industry Group Co could benefit from the government's new push [File; Qilai Shen/Bloomberg]'s new push [File; Qilai Shen/Bloomberg]

Chinese firms such as Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp, whose chips are seen here, Will Semiconductor Ltd and National Silicon Industry Group Co could benefit from the government's new push [File; Qilai Shen/Bloomberg]
China is planning a sweeping set of new government policies to develop its domestic semiconductor industry and counter Trump administration restrictions, conferring the same kind of priority on the effort it accorded to building its atomic capability, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

Beijing is preparing broad support for so-called third-generation semiconductors for the five years through 2025, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing government deliberations. A suite of measures to bolster research, education and financing for the industry has been added to a draft of the country's 14th five-year plan, which will be presented to the country's top leaders in October, the people said.

China's top leaders will gather next month to lay out their economic strategy for the next half decade, including efforts to ramp up domestic consumption and make critical technology at home. President Xi Jinping has pledged an estimated $1.4 trillion through 2025 for technologies ranging from wireless networks to artificial intelligence. Semiconductors are fundamental to virtually every component of China's technology ambitions -- and an increasingly aggressive Trump administration threatens to cut off their supply from abroad.

"The Chinese leadership realizes that semiconductors underpin all advanced technologies, and that it can no longer dependably rely on American supplies," said Dan Wang, technology analyst at research firm Gavekal Dragonomics. "In the face of stricter U.S. restrictions on chip access, China's response can only be to keep pushing its own industry to develop."

Shares in several major Chinese chipmakers gained. Shanghai Fudan Microelectronics Group Co. finished 4.3% higher in Hong Kong. On mainland bourses, Will Semiconductor Ltd. -- the second most valuable listed Chinese chip firm -- rose almost 10%. Xiamen Changelight Co. closed 14% up while Focus Lightings Tech Co. jumped 5.6%.
Do we have a separate thread for 14th five-year plan?, It looks to be more interesting than MIC2025
 

galvatron

Junior Member
Registered Member
Under Trump, with the likes of Mike Pompeo and Peter Navarro, the United States doing as I have stated is a probability. Yes. Those types of persons want a conflict with China. They believe that doing as such will prevent or at least greatly slowdown China's ascent to global economic preeminence.
Just ban all businesses in China that are connected to Trump related businesses.
 
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