News on China's scientific and technological development.

machupicu

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Huawei is pretty much dead as a company. Even SCMP is sounding the death knell. The biggest problem is China's unwillingness to use state power to retaliate against US for Huawei. China obviously has its reasons about why it is not retaliating. Right now, China is too weak to fight US head-on. Or fight head-on without hurting itself more.

The biggest advantage China has is its rapid potential for fast GDP growth and rapid tech catch-up. So, it is focusing on developing itself rather than decoupling with US even further. Any action to retaliate for Huawei will probably hurt itself more. So, it is not going for that.

I don't think China has a choice but to give up on some tech advances it made that was too much dependent on US platform tech. Mainly Smartphone business, Laptop Business and app business. All dependent on US platform of Chips, Android and Windows. China can probably rely on homegrown platform in its home market. But it cannot use homegrown alternative to android or windows outside China. They will always be at a disadvantage compared to the huge app library of Windows and Android. These are simply too entrenched. Same thing with X86 and ARM instruction set.

China will have to grow from the bottom up. Start with low tech chips used in low tech parts then slowly move up the value chain to finally get to smartphone level. As long as they rely on US tech for this, they can always be cutoff. So, Xiaomi and Oneplus are on borrowed time. Now that Xiaomi is gaining market share in Europe, it is almost certainly the next target.

China will have to make a strategic decision sooner or later to completely give on Smartphone, Laptop and App business outside China and focus on its home market to develop the necessary chips and Operating system, Database software and so on. Even programming languages are all US made. That cannot work. China needs to develop its own programming languages now. Every single US tech must have a Chinese alternative. Only then it can survive the full onslaught of Western decoupling that is coming.

Of course many of these tech are open source or can be copied easily. But, China will still have to make sufficient changes to make them uniquely Chinese to break away from US dominance.
Not only will Huawei not die at all but it will continue to grow;

- 60% of Huawei sales are derived from domestic China

- its telecom business will continue to grow and its other units: AI, autonomous driving, smart cities, cloud computing etc keep expanding

US can't just impose this and that without a reasonable "reason" (all b.s. though) otherwise it invites huge retaliation.

Why does China not seem to react much so far on US irrational rules against Huawei?

The reason is: gov of China is aware of all implications related to Huawei, and Huawei has solutions!

The key is: first look at the case of ZTE. Xi gave a warning to Trump that unless he removed ZTE restrictions trades btw CN-US can't proceed.

Mid 2019 Trump then imposed rules about Huawei can't use US chips. It didn't work, so a year later another rule about fans can't process Huawei designs, but there was solutions: MediaTek chips. Now it closes all loopholes, incl MediaTek chips. But, Huawei has solutions: SMEE litho machines and Other solutions.

US can't suddenly impose or block tech for Xiaomi etc as doing so would declare a "war" and China will retaliate by attacking US companies inside mainland China that are doing $400 billions sales/year!

Using PPP, US economy is only about 15% of worldwide GDP ,China is much ahead.



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Huawei is pretty much dead as a company. Even SCMP is sounding the death knell. The biggest problem is China's unwillingness to use state power to retaliate against US for Huawei. China obviously has its reasons about why it is not retaliating. Right now, China is too weak to fight US head-on. Or fight head-on without hurting itself more.

The biggest advantage China has is its rapid potential for fast GDP growth and rapid tech catch-up. So, it is focusing on developing itself rather than decoupling with US even further. Any action to retaliate for Huawei will probably hurt itself more. So, it is not going for that.

I don't think China has a choice but to give up on some tech advances it made that was too much dependent on US platform tech. Mainly Smartphone business, Laptop Business and app business. All dependent on US platform of Chips, Android and Windows. China can probably rely on homegrown platform in its home market. But it cannot use homegrown alternative to android or windows outside China. They will always be at a disadvantage compared to the huge app library of Windows and Android. These are simply too entrenched. Same thing with X86 and ARM instruction set.

China will have to grow from the bottom up. Start with low tech chips used in low tech parts then slowly move up the value chain to finally get to smartphone level. As long as they rely on US tech for this, they can always be cutoff. So, Xiaomi and Oneplus are on borrowed time. Now that Xiaomi is gaining market share in Europe, it is almost certainly the next target.

China will have to make a strategic decision sooner or later to completely give on Smartphone, Laptop and App business outside China and focus on its home market to develop the necessary chips and Operating system, Database software and so on. Even programming languages are all US made. That cannot work. China needs to develop its own programming languages now. Every single US tech must have a Chinese alternative. Only then it can survive the full onslaught of Western decoupling that is coming.

Of course many of these tech are open source or can be copied easily. But, China will still have to make sufficient changes to make them uniquely Chinese to break away from US dominance.
 

machupicu

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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States is considering new restrictions on exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment and associated software tools, lasers, sensors, and other technology to prevent them from falling into the hands of U.S. adversaries like China.

The U.S. Commerce Department said in a posting on a government website on Wednesday it was seeking public input on how to define new technologies as it determines "whether there are specific foundational technologies that warrant more restrictive controls" in the export process.
It won't work because many companies outside the US: from China, SK, Japan, and EU will use these opportunities to sell more to China!

Chinese companies will increase their R&D and within a couple years new products and services will come online.

But one must ask why the US is imposing these new rules? It's a sign of a sinking ship, and companies will ignore those rules, after all China's economy will be much larger by 2025 and 2035.
 

machupicu

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A complete supply chain might exist already, just not state of the art. The question is how competitive the domestic supply chain will be by 2025.

If China can do 14nm alone, then there is hope.
Numbers do matter;
- the corp that launched Shenzhou etc has over 100,000 scientists/engineers/technicians
- Apple has over 1,000 ppl working in their camera dept
- Huawei has over 50,000 ppl in its R&D dept and of that 10,000 work in wireless.

In 2017, China had 400,000 ppl working in its semiconductor industries, with a target of 700,000 needed by 2020,, with 30K new graduates/year in semiconductor field..
Assume by end 2020, there is now 500,000 ppl that's not bad at all..

So it's very likely SMEE, SMIC and EDA companies in China will be quite successful in making 7nm chips for Huawei within a short period of time.
 

machupicu

Junior Member
Registered Member
It won't work because many companies outside the US: from China, SK, Japan, and EU will use these opportunities to sell more to China!

Chinese companies will increase their R&D and within a couple years new products and services will come online.

But one must ask why the US is imposing these new rules? It's a sign of a sinking ship, and companies will ignore those rules, after all China's economy will be much larger by 2025 and 2035.
5G in US averages 51Mbps while other countries hit hundreds of megabits

Average 5G download speeds in the US are 50.9Mbps, a nice step up from average 4G speeds but far behind several countries where 5G speeds are in the 200Mbps to 400Mbps range. These statistics were
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, which presented average 5G speeds in 12 countries based on
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conducted between May 16 and August 14. The US came in last of the 12 countries in 5G speeds, with 10 of the 11 other countries posting 5G speeds that at least doubled those of the US.
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machupicu

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Western sources often take the stance "Its not quantity, its quality that counts.," while also suggesting there is a certain amount of plagarism in the published works.
To substantiate this claim they often provide statistics that show Chinese published papers are the least cited by researchers from other nations.
BEIJING, Aug. 27 (Xinhua) -- China's spending on research and development (R&D) hit a record high at 2.23 percent of its GDP in 2019, up by 0.09 percentage points from the previous year, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Thursday.
China's total expenditure on R&D amounted to 2.214 trillion yuan (about 321.3 billion U.S. dollars) last year, up 12.5 percent, or 246.57 billion yuan compared with that in 2018, according to a report jointly released by the NBS, the Ministry of Science and Technology and the Ministry of Finance.
The figure has seen double-digit growth for four consecutive years, with the growth pace of last year quickening by 0.7 percentage points from the previous year, said Deng Yongxu, an NBS statistician.
Investment in basic research stood at 133.56 billion yuan last year, accounting for 6 percent of the total spending, the data showed.
Expenditure on R&D by enterprises rose 11.1 percent year on year to 1.69 trillion yuan, accounting for 76.4 percent of the total.
Meanwhile, R&D spending by institutions of higher learning went up 23.2 percent from a year earlier to 179.66 billion yuan, accounting for 8.1 percent of the country's total expenditure on R&D.
The steady increase in corporate R&D spending has offered a solid foundation for high-quality development, Deng said.
Last year, R&D investment in the high-tech manufacturing sector reached 380.4 billion yuan, or 2.41 percent of the sector's total operating revenue, representing an increase of 0.14 percentage points than a year ago.
In 2019, six provincial-level regions in China, including Guangdong, Jiangsu, Beijing, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Shandong, each invested more than 100 billion yuan in R&D.
R&D spending in western and central regions logged 14.8-percent and 17.7-percent year-on-year growth last year respectively, faster than that in the eastern area, which rose 10.8 percent, according to Deng.
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machupicu

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Hahaha, once China becomes independent in regards to Chip making, guess who are going to suffer the consequences. Not to mention that if it is the case here, it certainly backfired in regards to sales in China going down due to the whole WeChat/tick tock situation
"China leads the US in the deployment of hypersonics, small drones, quantum communications, 5G, facial recognition, e-commerce, electric vehicles, clean tech (wind and solar), high-speed rail, and the world’s largest database of genetic engineering data"
Pdf report,
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gadgetcool5

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Investment in basic research stood at 133.56 billion yuan last year, accounting for 6 percent of the total spending, the data showed.

China's made some progress, but it's not enough. According to the most recent estimates, the United States spends 17% and China spends 6% of its annual R&D funds on basic research. That amounts to the United States ($86 billion) and China ($19 billion). in a recent year.

Source:
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China is already decades behind on basic research than the U.S. But it only spends a fraction of what the U.S. does on basic research per year. Thus not only is it behind, but it is falling further and further behind every year.
 
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