News on China's scientific and technological development.

Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
Qualcomm would not be gone but actually emerge stronger in China in the short term due to the fact that Huawei is out of the high end smartphones competition. Most major Chinese smartphones vendors such as Xiaomi, Oppo, and vivo rely upon Qualcomm for high end chips.



Why should China help its rivals and competitors especially when all of them are unreliable. China could source parts and materials from them but helping them and financing them is out of the question.
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Qualcomm would not be gone but actually emerge stronger in China in the short term due to the fact that Huawei is out of the high end smartphones competition. Most major Chinese smartphones vendors such as Xiaomi, Oppo, and vivo rely upon Qualcomm for high end chips.



Why should China help its rivals and competitors especially when all of them are unreliable. China could source parts and materials from them but helping them and financing them is out of the question.

There are risks, but in the short to intermediate future, it greatly helps with increasing the ready availability and number of chip making equipment and chip making materials available for use by Chinese chip making companies that are devoid of US content. Since Japanese companies, for example, to a much greater number than Chinese ones, already possess the capability of building chip making equipment and chip making materials which they can supply to SMIC to produce chips for Chinese companies, while ensuring that not a single bit of any material that they utilize in making the equipment and chips is sourced from the United States.

China does have the money and can afford to source parts and materials from companies from these foreign countries that are thoroughly devoid of US content, and that is what China will be doing in this way.
 

KYli

Brigadier
That's a joke that took on a life of its own. What China wants is order and predictability - having an untethered politician like Trump is dangerous. Biden does not have a cult of personality and fanatical popular support like Trump; people are voting for him only because he's not Trump. Such a normal politician means the normal structural constraints of American politics reassert themselves; i.e., corporations take back control and it's business as usual.

Even if I'm wrong and Biden continues Trump's attacks, China can do all the retaliation you please then. Apple isn't going anywhere and a REE industry outside China isn't going to sprout in half a year. If what you really want is retaliation, then Biden would be a softer target to retaliate against since he certainly wouldn't go "whatever" if Apple is threatened.

I would argue Trump has helped China realized its shortcoming and its vulnerability. Without Trump, most Chinese elites are still daydreaming about how to copy and admire American exceptionalism. Although I am not going to argue who is better for China since I don't have a preference to begin with.

I don't care about retaliation. I care about the need of retaliation and the best timing of retaliation. Like I said if you truly believed that Biden is a better alternative, then you don't need to argue with me as not helping Trump is the priority if that is your belief.
 

Weaasel

Senior Member
Registered Member
I do agree with your conclusion that the sanctions might hasten China's tech advancement and spinoff the domestic chips industry. However, I don't agree with your assessment that the sanctions wouldn't affect China's tech advancement in many areas.

For example, Huawei could still design 3nm chips but it couldn't produce them as the door of TSMC is shut. In the short term, those Huawei engineers can rely upon their expertise to advance the 3nm design. However, in the long run, without the mass production and feedback from customers, Huawei's advancement would stall. In the contrary, Qualcomm would be benefit as it would get more orders from Xiaomi, Vivo, and Oppo and demanding a better price. More profits, more market share and more R&D funding would enhance Qualcomm competitiveness.

There would be many examples of Huawei and major Chinese tech companies spending their time and resources to design and redesign their products so that the American component can be taken out. Many companies would be forced to redesign their products at lower specifications due to the sanctions.

In conclusion, the sanctions would force the advancement of the semiconductor equipment makers and material providers. It would also spinoff the development of EDA and many software. The sanctions also hindered the development of advanced and design chips. If SMIC is sanctioned, then it would spend many resources to just maintain its production by switching out American equipment and material. It would greatly affect SMIC's advancement of 7nm or 5nm development.
I do agree with your conclusion that the sanctions might hasten China's tech advancement and spinoff the domestic chips industry. However, I don't agree with your assessment that the sanctions wouldn't affect China's tech advancement in many areas.

For example, Huawei could still design 3nm chips but it couldn't produce them as the door of TSMC is shut. In the short term, those Huawei engineers can rely upon their expertise to advance the 3nm design. However, in the long run, without the mass production and feedback from customers, Huawei's advancement would stall. In the contrary, Qualcomm would be benefit as it would get more orders from Xiaomi, Vivo, and Oppo and demanding a better price. More profits, more market share and more R&D funding would enhance Qualcomm competitiveness.

There would be many examples of Huawei and major Chinese tech companies spending their time and resources to design and redesign their products so that the American component can be taken out. Many companies would be forced to redesign their products at lower specifications due to the sanctions.

In conclusion, the sanctions would force the advancement of the semiconductor equipment makers and material providers. It would also spinoff the development of EDA and many software. The sanctions also hindered the development of advanced and design chips. If SMIC is sanctioned, then it would spend many resources to just maintain its production by switching out American equipment and material. It would greatly affect SMIC's advancement of 7nm or 5nm development.

While also ramping up production of chip making equipment and chip making materials in domestically, with the eventual aim of also having the capability of producing state of the art semiconductor related products of all types domestically, China can pay foreign companies in Japan and Europe to produce chip making equipment and chip making materials to make such equipment and materials from sources thoroughly devoid of US content to supply to Chinese companies like SMIC and Yangtze Memory so as to produce chips for Huawei base stations and mobile phone chips, as well as chips utilized by Xiaomi and Oppo, and other consumer electronics manufacturers, with the implicit threat to the likes Xiaomi and Oppo that they must include significant local content in their domestic sources of chips.

That means even RIGHT THIS VERY MOMENT get SMIC and other Chinese chip making companies equipment and materials from such non US sources.
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
The solution is not to stop getting stuff from US sources, the key is to reverse engineer/study the equipment and materials.

Why did China want the EUV equipment so bad? Probably because it wanted to study it as the primary objective.

An expert can learn tens of thousands of man hours of research just from an initial look at a system such as an lithography machine.
 
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AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Qualcomm would not be gone but actually emerge stronger in China in the short term due to the fact that Huawei is out of the high end smartphones competition. Most major Chinese smartphones vendors such as Xiaomi, Oppo, and vivo rely upon Qualcomm for high end chips.

Qualcomm would not emerge stronger in China in the short term in such a scenario.

For low-end and medium-end smartphone chips, there are alternatives from Mediatek and Unisoc for example.

For these sorts of chips, Xiao, Oppo and Vivo will phase out Qualcomm because of the risk.

That just leaves a few high-end smartphone chips, but which Mediatek and Unisoc will be gunning for in the future.
 

galvatron

Junior Member
Registered Member
The solution is not to stop getting stuff from US sources, the key is to reverse engineer/study the equipment and materials.

Why did China want the EUV equipment so bad? Probably because it wanted to study it as the primary objective.

An expert can learn tens of thousands of man hours of research just from an initial look at a system such as an lithography machine.
TSMC and Samsung can't make those machines. They just bought those machines.
 

localizer

Colonel
Registered Member
TSMC and Samsung can't make those machines. They just bought those machines.

China wanted ASML to deliver the machines so Chinese experts can go over the details of the machine and not have to guess the basics.

It would be better if they delivered then US sanctioned SMIC, then China can disassemble and study in further detail.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
I would counter that Trump has actually been a very effective multilateral president. He's gotten allies to go along with American policies far more effectively than Obama - Europe is obeying his sanctions on Iran and everybody is bailing on Huawei. He's going about it in a vicious and ugly way, but geopolitics is about power, not congeniality.

I disagree.

Allies may obey American policies, but the trust is completely gone.

The leaders of France and Germany are publicly saying the US cannot be relied upon, and that Europe needs to build itself up and be able to reject US leadership. That will become the default EU position.

And this is irrespective of who occupies the White House in the future.
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
China wanted ASML to deliver the machines so Chinese experts can go over the details of the machine and not have to guess the basics.

Espionage is an option .. don't make a mistake ... every country does it, just a matter of whether you have the capability doing it. USA is doing it extensively as they have a huge resources
 

KYli

Brigadier
There are risks, but in the short to intermediate future, it greatly helps with increasing the ready availability and number of chip making equipment and chip making materials available for use by Chinese chip making companies that are devoid of US content. Since Japanese companies, for example, to a much greater number than Chinese ones, already possess the capability of building chip making equipment and chip making materials which they can supply to SMIC to produce chips for Chinese companies, while ensuring that not a single bit of any material that they utilize in making the equipment and chips is sourced from the United States.

After Japan cut off chemical and materials supplies to Korea due to the WWII dispute, you still think it is a good idea to rely upon Japan and help Japan to advance its semiconductor industry. In addition, Japan doesn't have the most advanced semiconductor equipment as China has already developed the dual-stage Twinscan. Buying materials and sourcing Japanese equipment are fine but helping Japan, which is very unreliable, is just not possible.

While also ramping up production of chip making equipment and chip making materials in domestically, with the eventual aim of also having the capability of producing state of the art semiconductor related products of all types domestically, China can pay foreign companies in Japan and Europe to produce chip making equipment and chip making materials to make such equipment and materials from sources thoroughly devoid of US content to supply to Chinese companies like SMIC and Yangtze Memory so as to produce chips for Huawei base stations and mobile phone chips, as well as chips utilized by Xiaomi and Oppo, and other consumer electronics manufacturers, with the implicit threat to the likes Xiaomi and Oppo that they must include significant local content in their domestic sources of chips.

That means even RIGHT THIS VERY MOMENT get SMIC and other Chinese chip making companies equipment and materials from such non US sources.

Tokyo Electron (Japan), LAM Research (US), ASML (Netherlands), Applied Materials (US), and KLA-Tencor (US) are top semiconductor equipment and materials suppliers. Basically, China needs to rely upon its own if it was cut off from the US. European and Japan suppliers are only secondary and wouldn't fill the void.
 
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