News on China's scientific and technological development.
- Thread starter Quickie
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How so? Advancement comes from your own researches and innovations, not from US sanction of certain chips that China is not fabricating now. China will advance further because it plan to produce those chips sooner or later. There will be initial hurdles, but these will not be insurmountable because there is no lack of talents and money when this quest becomes the highest priority. We are not talking about India or even Japan here.
The business interest of certain Chinese companies might be hit in the short term, but it can be mitigated given China's own large domestic market. China is first to recover from Covid-19 while most major countries are still being held back by the epidemic. China is now embarking on dual track or circulation economy. Local consumption is being stimulated with a host of measures..
The short sighted move by Washington will eventually hasten China's technological advancement. When China can produce those high end chips (or close to the level) domestically , the days of these US Companies and equipment suppliers will be numbered.
What is the possibility of second term?
Intrepid
Major
For the first term, possibility was less than 50%, but it happened. Now it is the same, less than 50%.
Trump does want concessions. If China agreed to the initial draft of the trade agreement, then his administration wouldn't need to sanctions so many Chinese companies to obtain his objective. Of course, initial trade agreement is pretty much a dead sentence for high tech in China.
As I said, if China really wanted Trump to lose and Biden to win, then China could choose to not retaliate. However, many people felt that another 4 years of Trump is better for China as Trump would cause more damages to the US than he could for China. In addition, not retaliate now could also help elected Trump if his attacks on China could resonate with those voters felt that only Trump would be tough on China.
That's the very definition of wanting China dead. Trump told China to shoot itself in the head, China said no, and now we're in a firefight. To continue with the analogy, China is behind cover with its weapon jammed - people here want China to throw rocks, taunt Trump, and all manner of things except clear the weapon and return fire. Clearing the weapon in this analogy means getting to these critical core technologies as quickly as possible. Retaliation, ban Apple, ban REEs, ban whatever is secondary at best.
Get. The. Tech.
That's a joke that took on a life of its own. What China wants is order and predictability - having an untethered politician like Trump is dangerous. Biden does not have a cult of personality and fanatical popular support like Trump; people are voting for him only because he's not Trump. Such a normal politician means the normal structural constraints of American politics reassert themselves; i.e., corporations take back control and it's business as usual.
Even if I'm wrong and Biden continues Trump's attacks, China can do all the retaliation you please then. Apple isn't going anywhere and a REE industry outside China isn't going to sprout in half a year. If what you really want is retaliation, then Biden would be a softer target to retaliate against since he certainly wouldn't go "whatever" if Apple is threatened.
AssassinsMace
Lieutenant General
It doesn't matter if it's Biden or Trump. Biden will have to show strength so he doesn't get accuse of being soft or in league with China. That's why Democrats can only follow what Republicans dictate is important to the US. The question is what is China going to do?
I would counter that Trump has actually been a very effective multilateral president. He's gotten allies to go along with American policies far more effectively than Obama - Europe is obeying his sanctions on Iran and everybody is bailing on Huawei. He's going about it in a vicious and ugly way, but geopolitics is about power, not congeniality.
If the Democrats take the presidency and the Congress, Biden doesn't have to show anything. He can bark nonsense about Xinjiang and human rights and the media will go along with it as being "tough on China". The American people are cattle incapable of independent thought; they'll eat whatever grass they're fed.
What China is going to do is Get. The. Tech. The last thing it wants to do is retaliate against American companies in China and disrupt its own business - it wants those companies as sources of demand for the chip industry it's developing.
I do agree with your conclusion that the sanctions might hasten China's tech advancement and spinoff the domestic chips industry. However, I don't agree with your assessment that the sanctions wouldn't affect China's tech advancement in many areas.
For example, Huawei could still design 3nm chips but it couldn't produce them as the door of TSMC is shut. In the short term, those Huawei engineers can rely upon their expertise to advance the 3nm design. However, in the long run, without the mass production and feedback from customers, Huawei's advancement would stall. In the contrary, Qualcomm would be benefit as it would get more orders from Xiaomi, Vivo, and Oppo and demanding a better price. More profits, more market share and more R&D funding would enhance Qualcomm competitiveness.
There would be many examples of Huawei and major Chinese tech companies spending their time and resources to design and redesign their products so that the American component can be taken out. Many companies would be forced to redesign their products at lower specifications due to the sanctions.
In conclusion, the sanctions would force the advancement of the semiconductor equipment makers and material providers. It would also spinoff the development of EDA and many software. The sanctions also hindered the development of advanced and design chips. If SMIC is sanctioned, then it would spend many resources to just maintain its production by switching out American equipment and material. It would greatly affect SMIC's advancement of 7nm or 5nm development.
If you’re dealing with a lunatic who wants to take the dance to the very end maybe it’s a good idea to not take them up on the offer.