News on China's scientific and technological development.

AndrewS said:

But that attempt will fail.

No matter what happens, the Chinese government will not allow its hi-tech giants to be destroyed.
They'll be supported until American technology has been completely removed.

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That is easier said than done. Huawei smartphones, 5G, cloud, AI which one of them don't need server chips, FPGA, Kirin, Tiangang, Kunpeng, and Ascend. No one knows how much chips Huawei has stockpiled but it is pretty sure that Huawei smartphones would run out of chips in the high end within a year or less. Some analysts even believe that 5G base stations chips would be run out by first half of 2021.

I don't doubt the Chinese government support of its high tech sector. However, for companies such as YMTC which is relative young, any sanction would be devastated. Even SMIC might find it difficult to survive without massive injection from the Chinese government. Huawei might be forced to enter into some new industry for survival. In the meantime, 5G expansion would be delayed in China, Huawei investment in chips would lag as it focuses to become IDM.

The game is not just to survive but to advance and to close the gap between China and the US. However irrational is Trump, his administration has seriously disrupted China's technology progress and advancement. The success would be define by your ability to retain best talents and continue to invest and keep up with the latest tech even though you can't produce and use them. And Americans don't need to destroy your high teach giants but just need to weaken them like they have done to the Japanese tech giants in the 80s and 90s.

s002wjh said:

just saw this so i'm curious what band does zte & huawei use for their 5G.

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China will use sub6 spectrum and mmWave from what I understand.

The Huawei 5G antenna is the best in the market to pick up and switch between the spectrum from what I have read somewhere.

horse said:

Well, I do not disagree with what you are saying, but what if it is a retreat by the part of the Americans?

From the Chinese perspective, Qualcomm was here selling stuff. Now they're gone! They left China.

This probably has implications, which no one thought of.

Would the rest of the world are willing to follow the Americans in retreat from the China market?

That kind of underscores a big issue, this is about American leadership over its minions. If the leader is weak and retreating, how enthusiastic will the minions be?

I think, that is what we may be thinking about.

The new sanctions, are they American strength or American weakness?

One thing is true about these new sanctions, this part of the tech war cannot be fought to a stalemate, this is all or nothing.

If they made the move on American strength, they would win for sure. If the move was based on American weakness, then they would lose for sure.

Maybe it is like when they started bombing Cambodia. Sure that was a display of American firepower, but also a clear sign they lost the plot, and eventually would go home without accomplishing anything.

What the CCP has to do next, has to be inline with this, I would believe. I think it is interesting.

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Qualcomm would not be gone but actually emerge stronger in China in the short term due to the fact that Huawei is out of the high end smartphones competition. Most major Chinese smartphones vendors such as Xiaomi, Oppo, and vivo rely upon Qualcomm for high end chips.

Weaasel said:

OUTSIDE THE BOX THINKING

What if China also directly financed Japanese, Korean, and/or European in addition to Chinese companies to produce chip making equipment, chip making materials , and IC chips for the Chinese domestic market that are just one generation behind state of the art that do not possess a single bit of US made content?

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Why should China help its rivals and competitors especially when all of them are unreliable. China could source parts and materials from them but helping them and financing them is out of the question.

KYli said:

That is easier said than done.

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That's business. Even though the future by nature is uncertain, a business always has a plan. Even the farmer selling vegetables on the road has a plan.

For Huawei, we do not know what it is, but we can be certain it is either one of two things. The answer rests on the stockpile.

Was the stockpile a random order, where they realized they could be cut off and bought everything they could at the last moment's notice?

Or was the stockpile built up since Ren Zhengfei did not trust those guys because his daughter was in jail, and he calibrated the stockpile levels to to the point where it was enough to last until the domestic production comes online? And that he wargamed a complete cut off too?

That we do not know, but we will find out.

The track record for Huawei speaks for itself.

SPOOPYSKELETON said:

Really? So you and Carl are both well connected I see. Care to share?

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I wouldn’t call it “well connected”. The rumour mill on politics has very high churn, very low accuracy, and is motivated by a lot of hysterical paranoia. If you can imagine it it can be gossiped about. When it does end up being right that doesn’t validate the entire rumor mill, since it’s often far more wrong. You can always find snippets of truth if you broaden the spread of outcomes enough, that doesn’t make it rooted in reality.

KYli said:

Allowing your rival to dictate the terms and conditions of engagement is never wise. I don't advocate tit-for-tat. At the same time, even if your opponent is irrational, it doesn't mean you allow it to have a free hand of hitting you.

If Trump really went after all major Chinese tech companies, I just don't see the point of waiting another 2-3 months. At this moment, China could still wait it out but China should prepare to hit back hard if things deteriorated.

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If your opponent is irrational they also don’t respond to the logic of punishment the same way.

Weaasel said:

Can the United States legally make a law that any company which trades with Huawei in any particular types and categories of items that it does not want Huawei to purchase will be subject to US sanctions, even if such items possess no US made content and are made with equipment that possesses no US made content?

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Yes, they could, but I don't think they are stupid enough to do that

latenlazy said:

If your opponent is irrational they also don’t respond to the logic of punishment the same way.

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Isn't that what maximum pressure tactic that Trump loves to use? Let you think that they are irrational and reckless and then extort concessions from you. Both Iran and North Korea were threatened with wars but Trump pulled the plug at the last moment. Your premise is that since Trump is irrational, you don't want to trigger more sanctions and irrational behavior from him. My point is if you don't response then Trump might want to hit you more sanctions because he dares you not to retaliate.

China managed to stay under the radar from the 90's to 2010. Then it managed to stall the US till today (2020) without much damage.

Squeezing out another 10-15 years of development should result in parity between the two countries.

KYli said:

Isn't that what maximum pressure tactic that Trump loves to use? Let you think that they are irrational and reckless and then extort concessions from you. Both Iran and North Korea were threatened with wars but Trump pulled the plug at the last moment. Your premise is that since Trump is irrational, you don't want to trigger more sanctions and irrational behavior from him. My point is if you don't response then Trump might want to hit you more sanctions because he dares you not to retaliate.

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Trump doesn't want concessions, he wants China dead. Retaliating now might allow him to win a second term, so China won't retaliate now - end of discussion.